Syrmax

Some thoughts. Not a rant. Onondaga County data shows a 93.4% negative test rate...and they're only testing "sick" people. There are under 300 active cases (377 total). Yet, the Cty Exec is railing on about the potential for as many as 5,000 cases at one time if we don't stay in lockdown or increase it (which he has...albeit largely voluntary). He is getting the 5,000 number from an Upstate Medical model of virus case progression for various R0 and participation rate values (38% participation gets us 5,000 new daily cases in August..). He claims we are at 33% participation, don't know how that value us determined, it's likely fuzzy math. I won't even get into the ventilator-need projections. Yet, hospitals are laying off staff because they're empty (elective treatments postponed). So, in essence, they declare this "a war" (ok I'll buy that), and destroy the economy, but then we downsize the Army. Something is really amiss here, big picture. I suspect what's amiss is an over projection of R0 values in lower pop density areas, and an underestimation of lockdown participation rate, coupled with basically a panicked response. Granted, high pop density areas have been a problem but that's likely due to a preponderance of transmission being between family members in urbanized areas (per info from China and Italy, Spain). How long do we sit here with empty hospitals, masses unemployed, businesses shuttering and low case loads? There are 29 people hospitalized in the county. 29. The good news is we are trending far below projections of cases (here). At some point soon, they are going to need to relax restrictions and transition to normal if caseload growth remains low. Even at 15 new cases a day that's 1,500-2,000 total cases by August, which sounds like a lot but is manageable, as we are seeing by the empty hospitals. Or, be a slave to models, which means it'll never end because we'll never get "low enough" and they will always point to exponential growth possibilities. I think in a couple of weeks we will begin to see a lot of friction between the Governer, who is NYC focused, and leaders in the rest of the state as i suspect Cuomo will be much more reluctant to relax any measure of control he has in place.

I don't think it'll ever be over. They've boxed themselves into following model output! We here know the folly of that!

It's really good. I won't say its better than BB but it's in the ballpark.

Pretty much same here on those shows. And I'm a Better Call Saul fan. I won't spoil the Dexter ending but since you already are warned...all I'll say is that if you survived GOT finale...you can handle this.

It's really good. You'll be shaking your head wondering, is this real? LOL. I finished binging Dexter a couple weeks ago...glad I did.

Gotta say, this is rubbish. And 300 ventilators needed in the county? There's not even 300 active cases! This is getting out of hand. Panicked and power mad little Hitlers seizing their chance to feel important....fueled by a panicked media and an army of snitches. Sad.

I follow this guy's channel on YouTube, younger American that lived in China for 10 years, fluent in Chinese, has Chinese wife and kid now...back in US because Chairman Xi's CCP began harassing and clamping down on foreigners a few years ago. He has a lot of great pieces on China from his life there. Interesting to get first-person info and perspective on China. Here he discusses the drop in Cellphine useage and information and the utter madness of what's going on there from his personal contacts within China. Frankly, I'm at the point where I'm beginning to refer to this as the Chairman Xi virus.

I've been reading another aspect to the virus, it applies to many viruses or illneses... and it has to do with the "loading" of virus you get. Apparently, and this makes sense, the amount of virus ingested makes a difference in many cases as to how severe your symptoms will be (discounting other pre-existing medical issues). The less virus load that your body has to initially deal with, the better your immune system can handle it and better the outcome. Data is suggestive that something like 75-80% of cases are thought to be transmitted person-to-person within families. So, it would be in a home environment where your exposure could be greater if someone is contagious. Or healthcare workers, people working or meeting in close quarters. So masks, even if not N95 medical grade, would seem to make sense for even the uninfected to wear depending on where they are, which makes CDC's recommendations regarding mask use, any mask, all the more mystifying.

Here's some factoids... final #'s aren't in yet, obviously. These are a snapshot in time, to ponder. -The ratio of jobs lost to Coronavirus deaths so far is 1,665 to 1. -We’ve lost 46 jobs for every confirmed case of Covid-19 in the U.S. -6.6 million jobless claims reported this week. The highest claims posted for a week during the financial crisis was 665,000. -In two weeks we surpassed all of the job losses from the 2008 financial crisis by 2 million. And the S&P500 is 10% off the lows... -So far the S&P has gone up ~1% per million confirmed job losses. -The S&P 500 is up 6.3% from the Christmas Eve 2018 lows and since then we’ve lost 10 million jobs and counting...

I don't think the Banks can charge what they like on the SBA loans. They are bitching though... Update (1800ET): And so Wall Street wins again. After we warned earlier that the SBA's $350BN Paycheck Protection Program, which is expected to be launched at midnight tonight and is meant to bailout America's small and medium business (<500 employees), may never even get off the ground because the proposed interest rate on the loan of 0.5% is too low lender banks (alongside with various other considerations as listed below) with JPM saying it “will most likely not be able to start accepting applications on Friday, April 3rd as we had hoped", in a press conference late on Thursday, Steven Mnuchin said that he will double the interest rate on the SBA loan from 0.50% to 1.00% in order to appease banks seeking higher interest rates to participate in the Treasury's bailout program and lend money to the same taxpayers who bailed them out 12 years ago. These are same banks, mind you, that just sold all $1.6 trillion in securities to the Fed to expand their balance sheets capacity in the past three weeks, and which also just benefited from the Fed's decision to remove Treasurys and deposits from the Fed's SLR test, freeing up another $1.6 trillion in liquidity. Furthermore, these loans are guaranteed by the federal government and don’t require collateral, and will be forgiven if funds are used for payroll costs, mortgage interest, rent and utility payments for two months and if businesses retain and rehire employees. So bank don't take any risk - why are they charging any interest at all, or rather why do they have any say in what the rate should be?

Read the article on the looming small business bailout fiasco...if that doesn't spell it out I don't know what will. I'm far from a hapless Bernie Bruh but ... If we're going down I'm all in for going full Vlad the Impaler. What did Rahm Emanuel say? Never let a good crisis go to waste?

Why give out loans that are backstopped by the taxpayer? Meaning the SBA stimulus loans in particular. It's not even the Banks money! Are you effing kidding me? And then have the gall to demand higher interest rates that they will make $ from when these ****bags routinely blow themselves up and require bailouts? Are you serious? And i would think the usurious interest rates banks charge for Credit Cards would cover their "costs" especially during a time of national crisis...and since the Fed has taken their sh*t loan book off they're hands... I won't even get into the Great Lie of Mark to Market...the scam that keeps on giving...

Banksters... JP Morgan's 'goal' is to reduce HELOCs by 75% to people who have equity in their homes and need money to survive. Banks get bailout; people get "go f*ck yourself" And, https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/hours-its-start-treasurys-small-business-bailout-verge-collapse This looks fugly. These are same banks, mind you, that just sold all $1.6 trillion in securities to the Fed to expand their balance sheets capacity in the past three weeks, and which also just benefited from the Fed's decision to remove Treasurys and deposits from the Fed's SLR test, freeing up another $1.6 trillion in liquidity.

You have to wait until the others resolve, it's a moving target. The other thing eventually worth knowing is how many people die on a regular day statistically...in order to properly assess excess mortality. I don't know the answer but it'll be useful data for people to gauge whether this is a reasonable response or not given that we are self inflicting an economic Depression as a result (and the excess mortality that will inevitably result from that).

CDC now saying we should all wear masks now that none are available. I have the solution!

Very Navy like. Shoot the messenger. Ask questions later.

Thoughts? https://www.insidesources.com/unexpected-consequence-of-covid-19-crisis-empty-emergency-rooms/ After the utter fiasco of the 1976 swine flu debacle (courtesy of CDC malfeasance and media irresponsibilty)...one has to wonder about using a one size fits all approach to pandemics.

Best of luck dealing with all that. Truly feel for you... And yeah, working at a grocery store or healthcare providers...noone is paid for the risk that exists at present. I would hope that as a society we are realizing what kind of jobs are actually "mission critical' to society and that people would be paid accordingly. But I know that's a pipe dream...

I saw the Faroe islands had cases....like a month and a half ago. Which led me to conclude that this thing had already spread far and wide before lockdowns had started outside of Italy. We don't have the complete picture of this pandemic and we may never have it as there wasn't any testing, or an inkling of a need to, prior to the virus escaping China and then Italy. Add in China's suspected coverup of information and it's all murky.

The outrageousness goes on... namely, the heart warming stories of the Healthcare workers at a Chicago Hospital (not the only ones either) being threatened with termination if they wore their own masks...because the hospital didn't have any for them! These are front line workers, not cooks in the kitchen with less risk... https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/03/31/hospital-is-not-allowing-nurse-to-wear-masks-in-thick-of-covid-19-pandemic-furious-nurse-says/ Couple this with CDC admitting they bullshitted the American public regarding their original recommendation that non-infected people shouldn't wear masks (or that it was of little/no benefit)...because they figured there weren't going to be enough masks to go around for even healthcare workers... This is 1976 Swine Flu-like media and CDC bullshit all over again. The F*ckery and nonsense never ends with these people.

Looks like the natives are restless in Hubei province... https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hubei-residents-riot-after-quarantine-lifted-police-beaten-their-own-shield-cop-cars Reports of unrest in Italy. (You won't readily see this on US MSM outlets cuz...Trump Trump Trump). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown

Wow. i didn't see that. Of course i had CNN on the background today as a change of pace and this would have required them to relax their 24/7 Trump Derangement Syndrome programming for a bit. So that wasn't going to happen.

Oswego County giving the Finger to Corona, like a Boss!! One thing that's concerning that i've been starting to read about...is supply chain issues. I sort of noticed this myself when i was out at a grocery store yesterday. A lot of things have been restocked...but not completely. And there aren't hordes of people out sacking shelves anymore... "A source at a Walmart Superstore recently confided that the trucks were only delivering a fraction of the items needed to restock shelves. Imports aren’t arriving in California ports, at least not anywhere close to the degree they were before. And because more people are eating at home than ever before, the demand on grocery stores has increased dramatically. This also comes at a time after farmers have been driven out of business by the trade war. (source) We have actual shortages here, and it isn’t just due to “panic buying.” That only exposed the dangers of the Just In Time delivery philosophy used by retailers."

Won't serve time. Won't even be investigated. They'd have to prove insider info was used, which didn't exist. At least how Insider Trading is defined, per my understanding of it. Granted, the optics are pretty bad...from what i've read there were 4 Senators (both parties) fingered in similar type trading. Frankly, i'd give them credit for smart money management if they were private citizens as they knew nothing more than what i did at the time. Now, if they're out in public telling people one thing and doing the other behind closed doors...it may not be illegal but it should be remembered come re-election time...

I'll leave this topic with....if you realllly want to get worked up ..take a deep look into what the Fed is doing right now with it's various "extraordinary" measures to essentially bailout bad corporate and fatcat decision making with their various Special Purpose Vehicles (which are mostly prohibited by the Fed Charter, ahem)...to the tune of $4.5T (yes, Trillion) as we speak...all backstopped by the UST (Taxpayers) as First Loss parties should these corporate bond purchases lose money. Yet again, privatize the profit, socialize the loss. The worst examples (ala 2008) are them buying up Commercial Paper (Bonds) at prices that are ABOVE par, when the market value is below par! So here, we'll give you $ for you bonds that are worth 80 cents on the dollar and not only that, we'll pay $1.10 for it! If there's a loss eventually, the Taxpayer pays as the UST is the Banker/Loaner. Noone learned a thing from 2008/09. Actually, that's not true. What was learned was teat the Fed will bail you out if you are a greedy sonbitch and blow up. LOFL...Ackman is a piker compared to these people.