Agree. We're in a better place right now than most of this winter. We still have a solid 4-6 weeks to go. If you live south of the NY border (and CT/Mass border in NE), this winter has been an atrocity for snow.
I peeked at some soundings and absolutely true. We've seen this many times before. Its very wintery and vis can be low, but accums are in the inch or two range on our area.
Looks ok for 3-6" areawide, to my eye. Temps a bit marginal but should keep taint amd rain south of the border for the most part. Haven't looked at soundings and its early/mid Feb so I can't imagine the sun angle excuse is in play yet for lowering snow accumulations. Maybe lower impact on roads at 32F...but that is more a function of the 5x10^6 tons of salt spewed on them per linear mile in upstate NY. It's free right?
Nice map! Havent seen one this detailed that I can recall.
That snow minima east of syracuse and south of I-90 must be modeling all the salt blowing off the thruway.
KBGM may be underenthused because the southern part of their CWA looks to get little or no snow? Even the northern half is probably 3-6" of synoptic, assuming it doesnt tick north in the next day or so which would push higher accum more into just Oneida county.
Temps Friday and Saturday look pretty ridiculous on some progs. We might achieve Wolfie like temps down here near the Syracuse sauna and orange groves.
Thats a helluva AFD. My area's AFD reads, essentially,...snow, followed by mix and rain, then some more rain changing to periods of snow Friday. Then clearing. Then Spring comes in late March.
I agree it looks promising. I'm just leery of the modeling disparities and let's face it, this winter has found a way to snatch defeat from the jowels of victory with regularity...
7" here, between two systems...I guess we'll have to take whatever scraps get hurled at us this winter. Of course this is the NAM. I'm just hoping we can keep some snowcover after the rain on Thursday afternoon and evening. Probably will as sfc temps don't look to get too warm.