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Everything posted by Syrmax

  1. We may get a few hours of snow tonight...which may be the theme this week. It'll add up in fits and starts by end of the next week or so.
  2. Yeah...i'm not motivated enough to chase this one though. We have a covering of snow at best here. This event has worked out as i expected with basically <1" in our area up into So. Oswego cty. I had low expectations and they were met...I don't see anything noteworthy for this week other than a parade of Clippers and transient or weak LES multibands offering 1-3" type snows. So by end of this week we may scratch out 6". Pattern looks chilly going forward so i suspect Feb may get us roughly normal snowfall, by some means. At least that's my initial expectation as February approaches. Snowblower rusting from disuse...;)
  3. Great job compiling and preserving the sights and sounds of that epic event. Many thanks! And ABBA FTW LOL!
  4. Man, we are all so negged out! I've also seen this in other forums. We are not alone. Not sure why. Hopefully we get an upside surprise this weekend. It's possible off of both lakes. Granted, it won't be a 2 foot dump but there's at least the potential for something worth measuring for some of us.
  5. Ty - here's my data: Station 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Avg 2016-17 KMBY 138.5 127.9 144.3 131.8 154.5 114.2 177.85 43.85 121.3 143.2 129.9 71.65 124.9 61.6 KSYR 136.2 124.6 140.2 109.1 149.6 106.1 179.0 50.6 115.4 132.0 119.7 80.3 120.2 68.8 My snowfall (KMBY - MyBackYard) is very close to KSYR. Being somewhat NW of KSYR, I thought we averaged closer to a foot more than KSYR but nope. I was right, only 2 years had KSYR > KMBY and one was essentially a tie.
  6. That map idea looks reasonable. Probably overdone by a category south of Oswego, except for hills in CNY, but that's being nitpicky, general theme looks about what I'd expect for mainly W and WSW flow.
  7. Roger that. I'll let you know. I'll be tuning up my riding mower and weed wacker out in the shed getting a few things adjusted for spring and doing minor car repairs. I was gonna ski but that's out, really hardpan icy now.
  8. Don't get me wrong, I think their 4 cast for the Tug region is probably spot on. With 260-280, even 290 flow, the lake shape and orientation helps funnel snow off the east end. It's very stable. With that in place for a few days...absolutely no qualms with the warning areas or forecasted amounts there. South of there it's likely occasional snow showers over the weekend. I'd just forecast one or two map categories lower with a sharper cutoff on either side of Tug bullseye. We see that play our pretty consistently. I may take a drive up near there sometime this weekend.
  9. Thats also how absurdly ambitious snow maps out of KBUF also usually work.
  10. That BUF map can't be extrapolated south for LES...never works out, unless you take the amount in extreme So. Oswego county (like 1/4 mile from my place) and divide by 2, or more usually 3. So 8-12" becomes say, 2-4". Which is reasonable for a few hrs of snow here and there over a 4 day period.
  11. Hey Ty! Per my records, since 2004...we have only had 2 winters appreciably under my long term avg...which is about 125-130"...last year being a Yuge miss. I dont have the numbers right in front of me now but thats my recollection. And i think i agree that the upcoming LES is gonna be pretty much a non-event for us...maybe a few hours of snow at some point. I am at around 65" for season so we will probably need a big Feb/March to pull this one out of the ditch.
  12. Noticed ensembles and even op gfs point to a more seasonable late jan and early feb which ought to yield a few synoptic opportunities ahead and lake snow up on the Tug and CR. Notably, the core of the cold is modeled to be restrained in Canada, which us usual, but enough of a PNA structure seems to persist to keep northeast US seasonable. And that's fine as reliving another "Polar Vortex" February is frankly not on my bucket list. We'll see.
  13. Same here...maybe a quick inch this a.m. looks to be last accum snow till next week perhaps. This next LES event should be up on the Tug. You might grab some in Fulton hopefully.
  14. So basically...the end of week LES will be feet of snow on the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill region with indeterminate table scraps elsewhere. SOSDD.
  15. 0.5" snow...0.47" liquid IMBY. Not even an inch of snow. So here's what we learned...when its not cold enough to snow...guess what...it doesn't! At least this will be melted by evening.
  16. No good news here...just rain. My thermometer has been stuck at 32.5 for the past couple hours now, roughly. Although I think it's a smidge colder as evidenced by my icing up back deck. Looks like the precip rate and/or dynamics will not be enough to overcome a warm column for at least a while longer. Fortunately, ground temps have been warmed over the past few days so icing of roads and power lines may not be severe. Once the sun comes up some weak solar heating through the clouds may help keep us from icing too badly given very borderline temps. Maybe we pick up a couple inches of snow in whatever deformation sets up tomorrow. Got to get to bed, work in the a.m.
  17. I-84 corridor in NY reporting Yuge amts of sleet...2-3". I've seen that much before but I forget where and when. It makes for quite the hellish driving conditions. Not to mention getting your face sandblasted...though I guess you could save on using a razor blade for a day....
  18. Yes my back deck which leads to the pool, where my rain gauge is... is elevated and icy af. BTW I checked model text output...NAM has an inch even for KSYR and GFS 0.7 thru 30 hrs...which is basically this storm. Haven't looked at the shorter range models. I still detect just ZR, latest SYR ob has RN/SN mix...I suppose it's possible there's some mix going on but its inconsequential if it is.
  19. NAM and GFS qpf here are pretty similar by eyeball analysis, around an inch liquid. I just checked my rain gauge, only 0.04"...but I also learned that we are def sub freezing as I almost wiped out on my back deck, which is becoming a sheet of ice. It's elevated though...driveway is just wet.
  20. NAM and RUC models show a decent deformation signature tomorrow over CNY out to ROC so maybe we pick up a couple, few extra inches if that materializes. The slp is modeled to deepen and slow down in the NY bight so we'll see how far back it throws the serious precip or where banding occurs. From what I can tell, models seem to indicate banding between SYR and ALB, like say UCA to Oneonta region, based on higher qpf's. Of course, no idea if that is SN or junk.
  21. I just scoped the NYC thread, looks like interior NJ and southern Ny getting quite a bit of IP and some sections ZR. Even down into the city had some PL but I think the city has changed over. Quite a plume of moisture developing and pointed in our general direction. The dry air here has been tenacious though. This is an interesting biatch of a storm for sure.
  22. Just for kicks. The 11pm obs at Morristown NJ has SN- and 36/36 for temps. That Might be wrong though as every other NJ station in NWS text report has RN. I haven't lurked the NYC thread to see if anyone reporting SN down there.
  23. Well, still RN- here just North of the SYR...humidity 94% and Temp down to 32.5... about where I figured it would end up. Maybe we lose a little bit more temp if precip rate picks up. So far just light liquid.
  24. I think u are right...that wiki article listed Syracuse with a paltry 5.4" but I thought we squeaked out a tad more. I think maybe some LES after got us up closer to, or into, double digits. That storm was another disgusting P.O.S. from my perspective. I lived in SECT for the better part of 2 decades and other than the winter of 95/96, couldn't buy a decent snowstorm it seemed, at least near the coast. A few years after I left, Blizzards are routinely pummeling SNE seemingly every winter while BGM to ALB get shafted like they are Los Angeles in a 10 year drought. I'm exaggerating a bit...but not much.
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