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8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

12-18 is very much still on the table.

I mean, don’t take my word for it, just read the GEFS and EPS verbatim.

 

The 40" solution we saw yesterday - wasn't that with the Kuchera algorithm?  I don't know what that is, but doesn't it always output totals that are way higher than a 10:1 ratio?

If this isn't a HECS, there's another chance according to the 6z GFS a few days later.

CMC looks the best at this point, correct?

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean...its probably a trend away from 40"....but def a trend towards  a major snowfall. 

Anything less than 40" will be a letdown now.  I was ready to go looking for my yard stick. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro often over phases, so that wouldn't suprise me. Bottom line is a significant event is likely.

Hiccup or trend?

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, significant step back on the Euro. Ensembles should follow suite.

Yup, much less impressive

Plenty of time for this to trend back into a monster blizzard ... or into a non-event.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ve had plenty of storms to track. They’ve just been rain. 

Right - it was clear for pretty much every storm that they'd be rain.  Plenty of days in advance.

Has there ever been a year like this - not just no snow, but really no storms to even track inside of 5 days or so?

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS drank too many beers while grilling dinner this balmy evening. It decided to go full-on weenie with 2/26 and 2/28 back to back. 

Where did all the snow go on the 0z GFS?

Maybe this thread should be renamed "We're gonna need a bigger umbrella..."