NorthShoreWx

Flurrying in Smithtown.

Time sensitive, but beautiful sky at Montauk atm.

https://hamptons.com/downtown-circle-montauk/

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought we had like one inch in April?

But in the middle of March it was amazingly warm (mid to upper 80s with sunshine!)

 

3/6/1990

Islip 4.2"

Patchogue 6.0"

Riverhead 4.5"

LaGuardia 4.4"

Central Park 3.1"

JFK 1.9"

4/7/90

Bridgehampton 3.0"

Patchogue 3.0"

Islip 3.0"

Westbury 2.6"

LaGuardia 0.9"

Central Park 0.6"

JFK 0.5"

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Big part of the reason cold was lacking this year....

Snow cover is important, but I think the effect of lake water temperatures or lake ice on the temperatures in downstate NY is less than some here seem to think.  If you live on the south shore of Lake Erie, then it is significant.

15 hours ago, psv88 said:

13” on the season here. If I get to 15” I’ll consider it a success. 

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

I dont think the 1940 storm was significant for our area.

 

2/14/1940

Central Park - 9.0"

Farmingdale - 11.0"

Babylon - 9.5"

Setauket - 7.5"

Bridgehampton - 5.2"

Riverhead - 5.5"

Just now, RU848789 said:

Actually, I never really did snow ratios before the past few years and I didn't have one of those core devices, plus I simply knew that taking a much larger sample would reduce the chance of error.  

"Device" is a stretch.  I just turn a 4" cocorahs gage upside down and push it into the snow, slide a piece of aluminum flashing under it, and bring it inside to melt.  It's not perfect, but it's easy enough and at least seems to be in the ballpark.

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Snow ratio time.  I like the cuboid method over the core method: I simply carve a 10" x 10" slice of snow and shove it into a big bowl, melt it and measure the volume vs. the snow height I measured (it's a much bigger volume than most cores, so it should have less error associated with the measurement.  I had 9832 cc volume in my 10"x10"x6" cuboid vs. 1180 cc of melted snow, so my ratio was 8.33:1.  I suspect it was much lower over the first hour or two, when we had 1/4" or so of sleet followed by fairly wet snow, but that was maybe the first inch of depth.  Once we started getting higher intensity snowfall it clearly was at least 10:1 ratio snow as the flakes were very nice dendrites (although a little wet until later in the storm). 

So much for the concerns over the ratio of the snow that fell from the sky.  And while we're at it, this storm also reconfirmed that snow will easily accumulate on all surfaces, including roads (and even treated, heavily traveled roads) at above 32F temps after a warm previous day and after a bunch of rain had fallen, as long as there is enough intensity.  The equation governing this is so simple: accumulation rate = snowfall rate - melting rate. And accumulation is only a challenge initially, when there's bare/wet ground at 33-34F, which is why the snowfall rate needs to be greater to overcome that initial melting rate; once there's a layer of snow/slush on the ground, the new "ground" is 32F snow/slush meaning the melting rate is far less than for bare ground and subsequent snow will accumulate easily (as 33-34F air does minimal melting of snow given air has 1/20th the heat transfer coefficient of wet ground).  There are certainly times where the intensity isn't enough to overcome that initial melting rate and we get a white rainstorm.  This wasn't one of them.  

 

 

Have you compared results between cuboid vs a simple core?

Melted core sample was 0.93" from 6.4" of snow (just under 7:1).  It was pretty much all frozen; maybe a drop or two of rain mixed initially, but maybe not. It looked like all sleet.  There could have been a hundredth or two that escaped, but I have no way of determining that.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I got this storm all wrong. Definitely one of the most challenging storms I’ve ever seen since I’ve been a weather hobbyist. Never seen the models this bad, this close in. But I’m more than happy to admit I was wrong.

744 days was a pretty good run.

6.4" here.  11.6" for season.

35° cloudy

16 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Everyone should probably re-read the first 30 or so pages of this thread. Some can learn….others should consider a large fork for their helping of humble pie. Of course the ones who need that the most will just reappear as if nothing happened….but maybe it will inspire some. 

I refuse to re-live that nightmare.

Sleet / snow mix now.  Didn't expect to see any snow for a few hours.

Precip just started here as sleet.  38°

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We are in the sweet spot for this one. Take a drive to west hills park tomorrow. It’s beautiful in the snow. 

Watch for breaking tree limbs.

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Grass being covered=success anywhere near the city south of the Tappan Zee. Intriguing though 

It's got my attention now.  

Won't be the first heavy snowfall following a 60⁰ Superbowl weekend.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I guess the bar is lower for average if we take the 5 year moving average of 13.2 through February 5th into consideration. 
 

The bar is even lower if we take the 1 year moving average.

With so much variability for so long, I have no confidence on what we will experience as average snowfall, which is affected by more than just average temperatures.

If we don't get something in the next 7 or 8 weeks, it's over.

I forget who/what had which torch and when, but the last 9 days here, while notably above normal, do not seem torchy. Biggest positive departures were on the mins...which have lead to a low diurnal difference most days.  I think today (2/3)  was the only one of the 9 with any sunshine:

1/26  41   45

1/27  39   43

1/28  35   40

1/29  34   40

1/30  33   37

1/31  31   39

2/1  30   46

2/2  36   42

2/3  31   42

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

early prediction for the total solar eclipse on April 8th lol?

 

Cloudy.

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Sorry bout that.  I just thought this wasn't the thread to keep the old debate going.  However, I am as immature as the next person, and I will easily get drawn into this with my nonsensical input.

bxengine's venmo is [email protected]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's an interesting that even just 0.8" of snow can help drop temps

 

 

It was the other way around.  The snow showers were with the arctic front on 2/16/73.  They were more organized on LI where most spots picked up 2 or 3 inches.

Woo hoo, the January thaw is over!

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Came home to another .1" of snow that fell early this afternoon.  .3 for the day!

Kocin and Ucellini are already working on the case study.

As of 1/29, 6.49" precipitation here for January.  Add that to the 10.23" for December and its a 2-month total of 16.72".  Kinda wet!