bigtenfan

9 hours ago, Harv_poor said:

Have read time estimates of anything from a year (I do not believe) to at least four.  It takes so long for anything to be built these days that to me the 4 years sound more believable. I wonder if they will have to do any enviroment studies and even enviroment lawsuits which slow down everything even more. Look how long it takes to build pipe lines or the Purple Line.

This!!

By the time that the enviornmentalist  and their lawyers are done with this  it will take 4 years to get permits!

14 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I think it would slightly increase the odds if storms develop out there but I think a bigger factor for recurves is the strength of the Bermuda high and whether or not the storms find the weakness to turn.  The high temps also don't necessarily mean storms will get strong out there, as we've seen the last few years shear and dry air have been shutting down the MDR quite a bit.

Follow up question:

Would a stronger storm that much  further out have a better chance of poleward movement  even bumping up against a strong Bermuda/Azores high?

I have read many times on this board that some of the biggest risks to the islands westward  are storms that stay weak until it passes 60/65 degrees and then  gets stronger and becomes a threat to the islands and westward. I guess what I am asking is if a stronger storm further east have a better chance of finding that weakness to recurve to.

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina in general supports patterns that are associated with long track storms across the Atlantic basin vs easily recurving out to sea. If you look at Atlantic hurricane tracks by year, there is a pretty big difference historically between La Nina and El Nino years. A lot of El Nino storms recurve, and some La Nina storms recurve, some don't. It's not a perfect correlation though. 

I don't really know if warmer SSTs in the SE N. Atlantic would be a big enough factor to favor more recurves, it's probably a small difference. 

Thanks so much for the quick response.

Question:

With the  greatest abnormalities in SST so far east would that increase the chances of early recurves? My understanding is that storms will lift poleward as they get stronger especially east of the islands.

8 hours ago, Ji said:

lol

Perfect for Phila Eagles fans that soon after the  Super Bowl. Kind of gives a new meaning to the term  Philly Special.

32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

WWAs and WSWs flying. Sitting at 31f in Ivyland.

Now you have done it.

Started a thread. The kiss of death.

14 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

UGGHHH, sorry. My oldest son is in ATL tonight, flying between there and DCA tomorrow mid afternoon. Begged him to change his flight because of my suspicions for tomorrow, based on your report this evening. Mr. "I CAN HANDLE IT, DAD" was having no part of it, though.   

Sun AM Update: I talked my son into changing his flight to Mon AM, he's seen some of the radar and storm coverage from FL last night and this morning, and I shared this post with him. Thx for the report, @bigtenfan...you helped me put his travel decision over the edge.   

Glad that I can help 

Just flew in to West Palm Beach.

It was one of the most turbulent descents that I have ever experienced and I fly about 25 times a year.

Would the exiting Lee leave a weakness allowing that storm to safely recurve?

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Lololol NHC literally said "no way Jose" in their discussion. 

But back in topic, GFS and Euro ensembles bring this MDR system awfully close to the east coast. Looks like we could get the first legit long tracking CV storm to threaten the US since... Irma?

 It does bear watching although so far anyway the GFS looks to be alone in the track when you look at the 240 hour position  on the EPS and CMC vs the GFS. Also neither the GEFS or the EPS give much support to bringing it that close the the EC

Looking somewhat further ahead:  Some of this morning long range guidance has storm  this doing a full loop once off shore and circling around to be a threat to the SE coast of Florida. Are the steering currents that crazy for that to be a reasonable possibility?

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. But the typical El Niño induced above normal Caribbean sheer is still nowhere to be found on the model consensus, including fwiw the CFS into early September. It actually is the opposite!

2. The 12Z EPS looks rather active to me after August 15th fwiw.

3. I'm not entirely dismissing the chance that the AEW now in the mid-MDR that ldub mentioned in reference to the satellite pic becomes a TC within a few days.

If the wave is already out there and if it was considered even a lower level threat to the islands/FL/SEUS I would think that the NHC would have at least a 20% Lemon for development over the next 7 days. If the sheer isn't there Is  it the dry air that is preventing serious development?

The 16 day GFS show a parade of waves leaving Africa but none of them make it past the middle of the MDR.

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro weeklies the last week do seem to see an enhanced risk the end of August along and offshore ECUSA.  Weekly 500 hPa forecast Not shown) for that time, the trough is over the Central/Eastern Lakes down into the Appalachians, with higher than normal heights in the Canadian Maritimes.

Florida is notably not included in even a 5% chance. I hope that it is right.

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Has seen the data and the science and can confirm it's Saharan.

 

I flew to Phila out of Fort Lauderdale today. On ascent the Sahara dust was very apparent.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Good luck to you! But even if he turns out to be "right", any one location can obviously still be hit very hard. For example, he didn't say that the one major hurricane that he's forecasting won't hit land as a hurricane, possibly even as a MH. Also, any of the other four other hurricanes he's forecasting could be quite rough somewhere  if they make landfall. So, always being prepared for the worst case is wise.

Absolutely

The self insure decision was strictly a business decision weighing the cost of wind insurance plus the deductible vs my worst case loss frim a cane.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

7/9/23 updated tropical seasonal outlook from meteorologist Larry Cosgrove:

"Despite what you may have heard, the potential for serious tropical cyclone development is decreasing. Low-latitude westerlies in the Atlantic Basin have still not lifted out, and with each passing day the chance for an extended "window" of favorable heat ridge positioning decreases. Another factor that is influencing the lack of convective production outside of Africa (despite an active ITCZ) is tremendous amounts of Saharan  dust, concurrent with very low dewpoints and high temperatures. 

 Warm waters in the Major Development Region do not alter or break the wind patterns associated with extreme warmth of the 1.2 ENSO sector. At some point the giant ridge complex (which will reach its apex in the last week of July), will weaken and some easterlies will set up from western Africa. But we are running out of time for that synoptic event to happen! Because at some point in late August the flow signatures will reset to west/southwest, shearing thunderstorm tops apart. For now I will keep my forecast total of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and one major cyclone intact. But do not be surprised if a revision is announced."

As a S FL resident who is self insuring for wind damage I hope that he is right.

I have always had a lot of respect for LC. When i lived in Philadelphia  in the 1990s he was the first TV Met to sniff out the 30 inch Blizzard  of 1996 a full week in advance( with mid 1990s technology!)

13 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Good stats listed here, but I would debate this portion and some of the interpretation. I'll agree it's complex and difficult to tease out. However -- you're generally not going to get environments favorable for supercells in S FL in summer and fall, esp for the kind we saw with long duration. This strikes me as a combination of mid-spring setup overlapping with higher SSTs than should have been available. 1-2C warmer than normal temps/dews temps into a skinny CAPE-high shear profile will absolutely make a difference in both updraft maintenance and precip output, esp if warm cloud layer is deep enough. A few degrees cooler at the surface and in the inflow layer and I'm not even sure you get an event anywhere near this magnitude -- probably several inches less. But in a marginal situation like this? The persistent maintenance of a mesocyclone alone could've contributed up to 50% of the updraft speed.

Obvs. it falling over a metro area and the expanding bullseye effect have some blame here too.

Did the fact that was worst at the airport itself have anything to do with heat generated from all of the jet engines?

I am not sure that I am putting this in the correct forum.

Do any Mets on the board have a scientific explanation as to the cause of the biggest single day rainfall in Florida history?  I almost had a very personal stake in this as my wife's flight  out of FLL got off the ground an hour before they stopped all flights in and out. She said that the ascent was very turbulent.

I have seen very little discussion of what was truly a history making event.

Thanks in advance

Back to weather banter.

It would be funny if DKs 2 inch prediction for DC  turns out to be right. It would be even funnier if he overestimated.

Just out of curiosity does anyone have an idea of how cold the airmass would have gotten in perfect  nighttime conditions? IE deep layer of snow on the ground, absolute calm winds 

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

The -NAO starts building at D5. That’s not fantasy land.

Thanks so much for the quick answer

At what point does this projected pattern  stop being a question of  Lucy picking  up the football and becomes a realistic probability? Inside 10 days? 8 days? 5days?

Drove from Exton to Malvern to Paoli.

Light snow the entire way. Pretty to look at in the headlights.

Question for the experts on the board. 

In the Hurricane watch Statement the NHC mentions the possibility of 80 MPH gusts all the way down to Hallandale Beach. Looking at Weather.US wind gust maps of 5 different models for southern PBC I see nothing higher than the high 40s as gusts. Presumably sustained would be lower.

Am I missing something or is the NHC just being extra cautious because of what happened with Ian?

Thanks in advance