bigtenfan

Maybe it is just me but looking at the radar everything to our southwest seems to be moving  almost due east. When is the precip going to turn NE?

I got stuck in Brunswick Georgia back in 1989 for 3 days as I 95 was shut down.

When we finally got moving it took 6 hours to go the 60 miles to Jacksonville.

In the pre smart phone days the lack of a camera prevented me from getting a picture of the Welcome to Florida sign covered in snow and ice.

Not only did they not have plows but they also could not use salt as it would get in the ground water .

Snow started at the Linc

On 1/2/2025 at 8:04 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

It really is. 

Dream shattered last night

if only they had receivers that could catch a pass 

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bring on Notre Dame!!

That OSU PSU final is getting closer and closer 

10 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Well if they overcome those OSU demons Franklin will finally get his due. That would be a great game. 

They are going to play a lot better than they played last night if they are going to win the Natty. They were sloppy last night and it was  case of superior talent wearing down the opposition at the end. They will not have the same talent advantage against either Georgia or ND.

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How bout those Nittany Lions???

I have OSU beating Oregon, ND over GA, TX over AZ State. 

Would give my left nut for a PSU-OSU natl championship. Penn State is overdue.

Imagine the commissioner of the SEC sitting in his living room watching an PSU OSU final in the home town of his conference. I would love to be a fly on the wall to see that.

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

As for some models an example of this was January 7th, 1996, up here in Philadelphia.

Actually that is not true

LC who was the TV met on I believe Chanel 17 sniffed this out a full week in advance 

For SE FL the GFS shows about 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days. 

We get that in an afternoon T storm sometimes.

I don’t care if it produces 500 ACE as long as it stays OTS.

4 minutes ago, jburns said:

Another thing to consider whatever the wind speed.  It has been my experience, and I have been in a few hurricanes, that there is a large difference between a land falling hurricane that is weakening and one that is strengthening.  It is hard to explain but a strengthening cane seems more violent. The wind ratchets up and down rapidly with higher gusts.  A weakening cane the wind seems more steady. While there are still gusts they seem to increase more gradually instead of suddenly slamming you without warning.  Just my experience, I am certainly not a met.

After Katrina fit South Florida as a strengthening Cat 1 and did a lot of damage JB wrote that a strengthening Cat 1 storm can cause more damage than a weakening Cat 3 storm. He mentioned mixing of upper air winds down to the surface.

As long as it stays in the middle of the ocean bothering no one but the fish and maybe shipping interest let it roll up all of the ACE numbers that it wants. Same goes for the wave coming off of Africa

Question for those on the board more knowledgeable than I am.

I see that the TS warning is extended all the way down the Florida east coast yet the  TS Wind speed probabilities for MIA. FLL and WPB are only 7, 12 and 14% respectively. If the probabilities are that low why does the TS warning extend down that far?

Thanks in advance.

On 8/27/2024 at 4:34 PM, LVblizzard said:

A fall to remember huh?

I mean, I wouldn’t complain if we got some tropical action. Or maybe even an early season snowstorm…

Most of us have been around long enough to know that an early season snow, say before Thanksgiving is the absolute kiss of death for the rest of the winter.

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The 06z GFS does pop the lid, producing maybe 5 different names storms? 

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The 06z GFS does pop the lid, producing maybe 5 different names storms? 

Very little in the way of other model support for that run even from its own ensembles. The EPS  also has very little support  that I can see.

1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Jova for bears, pack it up, the models are lighting up

I don't know about that. The GFS looks to have backed off at 12z from its aggressive  6Z look. The CMC looks about the same. The Icon has nothing. The EC at 0Z had nothing through 240h and the EPS had very little  through 360 for a time period going into the peak season.

This is NOT a season cancel response. As I mentioned in a previous post I am just taking it one day at a time with every day showing no major threats a day closer to the finish line.

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I hope you’re right! Although the early season has been active in terms of ACE and hurricanes, I’m not emphasizing that because I’m happy about it. I’m emphasizing it because I like to talk about what has actually happened in comparison to history and don’t like to see misinformation. I love doing statistical based analyses. Nothing would make me happier than to see no more US H landfalls this season. I’d love to see huge busts to the downside vs JB, CSU, etc. I believe that many # of NS forecasts are likely going to bust too high for obvious reasons.

 Just because I post a lot about hurricanes doesn’t at all mean I’m rooting for these monsters. I post a lot about all kinds of wx (forecasting or obs) whether I want it or not and not just for my location. I had more than enough of a headache from Debby just from a partially flooded garage.

 I still feel pretty good about my 21/10/5 forecast I made for our contest.

I have read enough of your posts to know that your thinking is along the lines of mine. Don't mind the ACE as long as no land is threatened  I would also like to see a( high) bust on the NS  forecast.

I for one  am just taking it one day at a time. Every day that the ensembles do not show a  consistent threat in the next 14-15 days is one day closer to the finish line.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The ensembles have been having an intermittent modest signal for possible development in the MDR a few days after a wave comes off Africa ~8/24. So, once Ernesto loses TC status (maybe tomorrow), there will likely be about a week before the next possible TCG. The interim will be a good time to rest up for the potential onslaught coming as most days this month have had a TC bringing ACE all the way up to 51 vs normal of 16, less than 1/3 of that! This is the third highest ACE for the season to date since 1951! There will also be potential for mainly Gulf homegrown late month per JB due to a ridge over troubled waters setup. 

As a fellow SE coast resident ( S FL) I may be looking at this through rose colored glasses but I am pleasantly surprised by the lack of consistent Ensemble support going up to labor Day for any serious MDR development. It makes me feel like my untrained eye is missing the signals but for now I just do not see any major MDR  threats 2 weeks into the heart of the season.

Looking at the sharp right turn of the NHC Cone it looks like the NHC is buying the Euro solution for now.

For now the GFS appears to be on its own island on this. It does not appear to have support from even its own ensembles.

12 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The latest rainfall anomaly by the ECMWF for ASO from Ben Noll's site. You'd not expect to see a more ominous pattern / setup for TCs being driven west. Ridging is in place, so frontal / trough induced precipitation in the CONUS interior is below normal. This not only smells of a cool neutral ENSO / La Niña, but also suggests long-tracking TCs with late recurves.

What i don't understand about that map is the abnormally dry area just inland from the Gulf Coast, Are they saying that there will be little or no inland rainfall from all of the storms that that this map would indicate in the GOM especially the eastern GOM?

I just drove through a rain shower between King of Prussia and Paoli on 202. The car outdoor thermometer dropped from 99 to 79 degrees in literally less than a mile and a half of driving.

9 hours ago, Harv_poor said:

Have read time estimates of anything from a year (I do not believe) to at least four.  It takes so long for anything to be built these days that to me the 4 years sound more believable. I wonder if they will have to do any enviroment studies and even enviroment lawsuits which slow down everything even more. Look how long it takes to build pipe lines or the Purple Line.

This!!

By the time that the enviornmentalist  and their lawyers are done with this  it will take 4 years to get permits!

14 hours ago, cptcatz said:

I think it would slightly increase the odds if storms develop out there but I think a bigger factor for recurves is the strength of the Bermuda high and whether or not the storms find the weakness to turn.  The high temps also don't necessarily mean storms will get strong out there, as we've seen the last few years shear and dry air have been shutting down the MDR quite a bit.

Follow up question:

Would a stronger storm that much  further out have a better chance of poleward movement  even bumping up against a strong Bermuda/Azores high?

I have read many times on this board that some of the biggest risks to the islands westward  are storms that stay weak until it passes 60/65 degrees and then  gets stronger and becomes a threat to the islands and westward. I guess what I am asking is if a stronger storm further east have a better chance of finding that weakness to recurve to.

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina in general supports patterns that are associated with long track storms across the Atlantic basin vs easily recurving out to sea. If you look at Atlantic hurricane tracks by year, there is a pretty big difference historically between La Nina and El Nino years. A lot of El Nino storms recurve, and some La Nina storms recurve, some don't. It's not a perfect correlation though. 

I don't really know if warmer SSTs in the SE N. Atlantic would be a big enough factor to favor more recurves, it's probably a small difference. 

Thanks so much for the quick response.