on_wx

Very March-esque today. Canada banned flights from the UK, and an Ontario-wide lockdown was leaked to start on Christmas Eve. The official announcement will be made at 1pm. Tension.

47 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So, Canada's Thanksgiving was on October 12, which I marked on the worldometers chart below.  Cases were already rising there at that time but exploded after that.  How much of it is seasonality and other factors besides Thanksgiving is hard to say.

 

I'd bet Thanksgiving had a lot to do with it. Most people I know, my family included, canceled and remained home. But a lot of people flaunted the recommendations and went ahead with multi-household gatherings. Cases started exploding a week or two later.

If the USA holds at 2,000 fatalities a day, that will be 14,000 a week. 

Assuming a lot of these fatalities were from infections 2-3 weeks ago, then what will it look like in 2-3 weeks from now? 14,000-21,000 a week? I can't wrap my head around these 150,000-200,000 infections a day.

Doug Ford warned new restrictions are coming on Friday. My county moved to Orange (3/5) on the weekend, and our public health has warned we could move to Red (4/5) this week. Most counties in the Golden Horseshoe are already in Red, so we could see lockdown (5/5) issued there on Friday.

40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Thanksgiving, and especially the post-Thanksgiving period, is a looming disaster if people don't get creative with how to celebrate it or outright cancel plans.  Particularly concerned about rural areas as they don't have as many medical resources to deal with outbreaks, and the advantage of being rural gets lost when gathering in groups.

Some people will cancel the big gatherings with extended family, but I have a feeling that it will be replaced by a lot of 5-10 person gatherings.  These are not as bad as larger ones in that you can't get 20+ people sick all at once, but the smaller gatherings are plenty capable of causing spread. 

They advised us to only have Thanksgiving with our own household this year and it sounds like most people listened. But we'll see in two weeks is the "run-away train" they warned will happen actually happens 

19 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would not at all be surprised if things have to be tightened up again eventually.  I think we can avoid the amount of lockdowns that we had in the winter/spring.  As evidenced by what happened in the United States and some other countries over the summer, the seasonality component is not as pronounced as the flu, but it still appears to be a factor.  With more cases comes a higher likelihood of somebody walking into a restaurant or bar or some other place where masking is difficult, thus causing more spread.  

Montreal and Quebec City are on a form of lockdown for the next 28 days. I don't think a lot of us are expecting another lockdown for various economic reasons, but its surprising to see parts of Quebec are going ahead with it.

6 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ontario has 14.5M people and were now down under 200 a day with 30K a day testing and death rate dropping as well. Looking at States with similar population and the numbers are massive. 

The historical partnership and historical linkages of how our two countries grew is interesting and were seeing it play it out in trust of government and perceived freedoms. 

Sault St Marie Ontario and surrounding towns- The government has asked us to shut down and slow the spread so lets close and do our part. The government has asked us to wear masks and we should listen. I was in a Tim Hortons in Northern Ontario recently and they werent messing around with the 5 people in a store at a time. They asked us to wait outside and we did, when we were in and more people came in they asked again and without fighting it they waited outside. 

Sault St Marie Michigan and surrounding Northern MI- Nope shutdown is dumb, wearing a mask is dumb, the government is trying to crush my small business and if I want to open I will. 

 

Not my business though on how you guys want to fight covid on your side of the border. Its just interesting to see an imaginary line we drew in the sand and the corresponding outlooks on society that follow. 

 

Edit**** Ontario has also really dropped the ball regarding LTC and the investigations and possible criminal charges coming against some will be interesting. So we are not perfect, far from it. 

We were on lockdown for 2 months. I never even got laid off cos the federal government paid my workplaces wages so my employer didnt have to lose any staff. That was the Canadian emergency wage subsidy.

We still cant assemble in groups larger than 10 people. All businesses have to limit how many people can enter the store at the time so we have to form lines on marked spacing 6 feet apart to get into stores, including inside malls that were just allowed to reopen.

Theatres and recreation are still closed. Only restaurant patios are open with massive restrictions. And singing and dancing are illegal.

And more counties are making masks mandatory.

We've worked hard to keep our numbers down and aside from a couple dumb protests everyone is complying.

I'm hoping all the emergency aid for wages, unemployment, and business grants will keep us afloat. Could all come down at a moments notice tho.

Its night and day for us looking south of the border. 

Hate to say it but the USA is in serious trouble and idk why but everywhere you turn these days is Americans arguing about facts vs fiction about the virus, "freedom", my political viewpoints vs yours, and who knows what else. It's enough to drive us all over the edge.

Ontario premier even says he will not support the border reopening and tbh we all feel the same as him. This virus is real, its deadly, you have to take precautions, and we're all at risk of death if we catch it. 

If it kills 1% of those infected, USA is looking at 3.5 million and everyone seems to be actively trying to expedite the process while the rest of us in the modern world have nearly stopped the virus in its tracks for now.

I don't get it?

21 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Tomorrow we go into the deep end of the pool here in Indiana.  Bars, movie theaters and other stuff that has been closed can operate at 50%. 

Limit on crowd size goes up to 250, including events like weddings and parties.  

Most of Ontario moved to stage 2 today. Group size increased from 5 to 10 people. Malls and restaurant patios can reopen with significant restrictions. Movie theatres and entertainment venues are still closed. Hair salons also opened today. 

Two counties north of here also made face coverings mandatory for everyone working or entering a place of business. Wondering if more areas will adopt the same policy.

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not too familiar with the Humidex, but it seems more aggressive than the heat index that we use here.  Like, a given temperature and dewpoint will produce a higher number on the Humidex than the heat index.  Is that 

The EC calculator asks for temp and dewpoint to get the humidex.

Everyone treats it as a temperature, but it's supposed to be a value representing a level of discomfort

The USA needs CERB. The federal government here is giving everyone who's lost their jobs due to the pandemic $2,000/month. They've even updated the eligibility for those who are out of seasonal or contract work or have had their hours cut to part time

It doesnt seem right to throw everyone to the wind, no wonder why they're getting restless 

Ontario is extending the emergency order until May 12th at least. No end in sight yet

3 hours ago, Baum said:

But wouldn't the same concerns exist in the H1N1 pandemic?  Also, is there a site that shows actual hospital bed availability as this virus continues to ramp up? 

Novel coronaviruses are different than the flu. The problem is that you develop difficulties breathing/pneumonia and require hospitalization at greater numbers. If you end up on a ventilator to breathe, then you are on that ventilator until you're immune system fights off the pneumonia, or you die. Unfortunately the process of healing can take several weeks which takes up hospital space and uses up all available ventilators.

H1N1 killed an estimated 3,600 Canadians over six or seven years.

COVID19 has already claimed 228 Canadians in two weeks, and Ontario is projecting of 3,000-15,000 deaths in the next two years in our province alone.

It would probably be better if this was a flu pandemic since we have vaccines and what not. 

Edit: should add that COVID19 is a SARS (Severe Accurate Respiratory Syndrome). We last dealt with SARS in 2002/2003 and they were able to contain it. This one not so much.

2 hours ago, Baum said:

you seem very knowledgeable on this stuff. Can you provide the reason for the mass shutdowns and government intervention in this pandemic vs the H1N1 pandemic about a decade ago?

I've chalked it up to the rapid spread and the unknowing factor of exactly what we are dealing with. But would love a more professional bend on the issue. Thanks.

If there is no intervention to slow the spread hospitals will be overwhelmed/overrun and it'll be a nightmare for everyone  

Just now, Snownado said:

Way too premature IMO. With things constantly evolving theres no way to predict what things will look like even a month from now. I say take it month by month. It's almost a guarantee that things will be much better by summer. 

I can see that as well. But, at the same time a lot of money and planning go into these events. You could end up forking out millions of dollars for nothing 

4 minutes ago, Snownado said:

That makes absolutely no sense to me. Its 3 months away for goodness sake.

It's not unrealistic. Toronto has canceled all events, including Pride, through June 30th 

4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Cautiously optimistic of how this is unfolding in Canada.  Cases are growing daily but not exponentially (and much of the growth likely a result of increased testing).  Right now only 6% of cases require hospitalization, and less than 1% are proving fatal.

Interesting how QC has 2,024 cases and 18 deaths (0.9% fatal) and Ontario has 994 and 18 (1.8% fatal)

Has me suspicious a lot are slipping through the cracks here 

24 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Really? The interest should be waived too. Its not like people are sitting at home because they want to. Isn’t EI only 55% of your avg insurable weekly earnings?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-deferral-rbc-banks-covid19-coronavirus-credit-card-1.5505704

Something like that

20 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

This is the kind of crap that is showing up on social media. To my Canadian friends, tell me that this is not true.

"All schools in Canada are closed for the rest of the school year, each family will receive $950 every two weeks for the next 15 weeks, banks were notify to suspend mortgage payments for at least 6 months, and student loans deferred. Imagine if the United States did this."

I'm not 100% sure if the public schools are closed for good. Theres an emergency fund still being set up to provide $900 every two weeks for 15 weeks for those who dont qualify for EI. You'd still have to be approved for it first. And the 6 month deferrals were from the feds on bank loans like mortgages and car payments. You still have to pay that money back eventually and they still charge you interest during the deferral months according to CBC

23 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Toronto's chief medical officer of health said there's almost certainly evidence of community transmission now.  The gentleman who died in Halton contracted in through community transmission too. 

So, yeah, be optimistic but also be vigilant. 

We have confirmed community transmission in KW too

7 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Im cautiously optimistic Canada will escape this. Most of our cases are imported and with the light lockdown in place I find it hard to believe Ontario will follow NYS. Though I heard on a local tv news program that 500K Ontarians will be arriving back in Ontario in the next few days from the US/World. All it takes is a few clusters and Ontario loses control as well. 

Hope everyone stays safe.  

Same. Stay home, stay safe. I feel confident in our low(er) numbers, but that could all change on a dime at any moment. The harsh reality is this virus is contagious and the longer we continue on "light lockdown" the more cases we're going to see popup. 

Look at the stunt toyota tried to pull yesterday. This is how it happens 

Southern Ontario just made it through the first panic run on groceries when they closed the schools. Cant help but wonder how many runs there will be in coming days/weeks. At some point stores are going to run low on stock. 

Quite surreal to see this is happening.

On 2/24/2020 at 10:48 PM, Hoosier said:

Guess the outbreak

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time's up.

March 28, 1920.  That means it will be 100 years.  The numbers on the map represent order of occurrence.

This is like a toned down version of the April 1965 outbreak.  Geographic area affected is remarkably similar.  7 of these tornadoes in IL/IN/MI/OH were rated F4.

I checked ontario records couldn't find anything for this date. Guess it goes like the Palm Sunday 1965 where the tornadoes didnt make it over the border 

6.3" in Kitchener/Waterloo