Anyweather

29 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

6z Icon is entire event

 6z Rgem and Nam is not

6z Navgem was also a absolute beauty but it's the navgem and there's no snowmap.

For comparison purposes for 12z runs 

 

Yeah the navgem looks pretty impressive. 

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Do you have a 2m wind speed?

12 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Any of y’all coming to Richmond to snow chase this one? 

If folks head this way, keep in mind it’s been 2 years without snow and people here can’t drive in it anyway.

So... Who all is staying up for the 00z models, particularly the euro?

Personally, I can’t stay up that late( used to back  in the day) I will get up around 5 or so  Coffee and straight to the phone. Makes it easy to shed those covers  

Are there any indications of a crawl up the coast? 18z eps, wise  

43 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year. 

Or for this forum. 

06 gefs  bumps up precipitation vs 00 Z. 
it’s not over. 

12 z GFS Still is similar to previous runs. I think the green/blue depictions will continue to fluctuate. Still feel we are in a good position. 

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

So the euro gives me more snow than 12z gfs

Is that a question or statement?

Looks like we are still in the game. 

On 1/21/2021 at 5:35 PM, RVASnowLover said:

18z GFS was historic. Again, cautiously optimistic. Still many runs to go 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s over 

I view that as a 9% chance. That ain’t bad. 

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The mjo looks kinda sorta goodish but bad except when there is a west wind then it’s ok so long as it’s not WNW but if the AAM is low then maybe but definitely not bad or good when the qbo is west but east is ok unless the solar is high then you need a SSW but only if it couples and not too strongly or else you need the PDO or TNH. 
 

Chuck can explain. 

No. I see now. Makes perfect sense.

I found this article on Bloomberg News. Here is an excerpt:

That could mean chills anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, though this year it’s likely to end up in the U.S. according to Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger LCC. A wave of deep cold could give the Great Lakes and East Coast their first real blast of frigid winter weather, along with a storm pattern that delivers snow storms as well.
 

read the entire article since the last paragraph is, well, a little deflating. 
 

link:https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/as-polar-vortex-stirs-a-deep-freeze-threatens-u-s-and-europe

On 1/9/2021 at 2:41 PM, psuhoffman said:

I think the EPS took a baby step towards a better look for the threat window around the 20th

much better ridging into the west and more depth to the eastern trough as well as a better alignment. Only snag is it still washes the wave in front of it out and so the WAR is still there. If that wave can amplify into a 50/50 that’s a really good look. But 2/3 factors moved in the right direction. Meatloaf approves. 

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

10 days out, we are in good shape. Lots will change over the next few days - happy to be in the game.

I agree. I think by Tuesday, real threats will be on the table. 

19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm not sure about the statement that the long range was "inaccurate". The storm signal was there for like 10 days.   The existence and approximate location were never in doubt.  Yeah there was a time where it looked like DC was going to good snow, and that didn't happen but that was corrected.  The fact that we knew about the storm at all from 10 days out is a miracle of modern science.

I agree with this. I'm of the age where I remember that all you could get was a 3 day forecast. It was a BIG DEAL when they started to do 5 day forecasts! Yeah, long range is useful.

Where was this pattern in ( insert winter month here)?

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

They have to appease hundreds of thousands of completely idiotic viewers who are concerned with their own personal comfort above all else.

You have to remember that the majority of people are really ignorant. They don't even know basic things such as when the US was founded, who fought in WWII, how vaccines work, etc. The idea that cold snaps are needed to maintain our ecosystem is totally foreign to them. They probably think "Florida is always warm and it's nice there." They have zero insight or understanding of the risks of invasive species moving north. It just doesn't cross their minds.

That’s correct. Now Florida is dealing with Iguanas, an invasive species, that’s disrupting the ecosystem. Not that stuff like that doesn’t happen regularly. But to have it happen in tens of years instead of hundreds or thousands can’t be good. 

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I want a cold spring 

Cold and rainy 

then hot in humid 

yeah

The 0z cmc at 240 hrs shows Heavy precipitation in the southeast and a strong CAD. 

I can’t help but post this. Hope it verifies. 

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

FV3 is a weenie run again.  Which one of you created that model?

Lol, that’s awesome!

11 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Boundary sets up just a touch too north next weekend on 12z GFS.  

Yes, but a fairly strong CAD signature this far out.. 

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who said they believe it?  This is about hope. 

Maybe it's the analogs....were due...the climate models all showed this in February back in the fall....mjo...cause hm messed up his last nao prediction and it wont happen twice in a row.....

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's already building. I've said this like 100 times. We're not talking about flipping from a +NAO into a fantasy -NAO in 15 days. Heights are building over the next 5 days (that's a lock) and are forecast to continue by all global ensembles. That is night and day different from sitting on our hands with a big blue ball over greenland and praying 3-4 week guidance can really see past its nose. 

I'm in!!! Its not like we are seeing torch indicators! ( which almost always verify )I couldn't be more in.