CarlislePaWx

Last night's GFS had all of us well into the sixties at the end of its run on March 4th. However, temps were all over the place through the run (0 Z).

Temp began to drop finally about 30 minutes ago...now down to 33.4 degrees. The mixture has now reversed and is wet snowflakes mixed with some rain. Still not enough to show any signs of accumulating. Current radar implies that the end is very near for me, unless it continues without being picked up by radar. Picked up an additional 0.03" of precip bringing my daily total to 0.24" and monthly to 0.26". I still have 100% coverage in my backyard which is a northern exposure. Looks like 2.5" of solid cover remains. In my front yard, which is a southern exposure, there still aren't any bare spots, but I'd say I'm down to around 2".

For my first colonoscopy 20 years ago at age 45 I had no idea what to expect. In fact, nothing happened for the first 10 hours, several hours after I had finished drinking the 64 ounces. But then, all of the sudden it started, and once that happened I was ready the following morning for the procedure. Don't worry about the delay, and good luck.

Wet snow flakes started mixing in with the light rain about 90 minutes ago. It was enough to drop my temp to 35.2 degrees, but it's been hovering at that temp for the past hour. The precip is still a mix however rain is still predominant. I'm not expecting a change to pure snow because it will likely come to an end before a full changeover. We'll see... Oh...forgot to mention I've recorded 0.21" of precip thus far. Going into this event I had only 0.02" for the month to date. So, now month to date is 0.23" which is still ridiculous. The drought worsens slowly.

Here in Carlisle just after 1:00pm, the skies are mostly sunny and the temperature has risen to a balmy 48.7 degrees. The last time the temperature was at or above this was on January 13th with a high temp of 50.2 degrees. So, we managed to stay below 50 degrees for an entire month. My snowpack continues to fight off the warmth and is still at 3" solidly everywhere. This is just about a 50% decrease from the Jan 25th storm. That 1" of sleet I had at the end of the storm has helped to put on the retention fight.

Down to +9.7 for current and low temp for today (so far). Had 0.4" of snow yesterday which melted down to 0.02".

Here in Carlisle, just before 7:30pm...it continues to snow lightly with mostly fine flakes mixed with some larger ones as well. It's been snowing steadily for the past 4 hours or so. Everything is coated in white...including my main street (which is a cul-de-sac). I just took a measurement from my board, and I'm just about up to 0.4". It even continues to snow when the radar has no echoes directly overhead. So, it's better than it seems. Oh, I almost forgot...the temperature is currently 25.3 degrees F with a dew point of 22. I had pretty much given up on today when I got up this morning. So, it's been a bit of a nice surprise to have the flakes falling again.

You might want to change your mind about seeing snow. Steady light snow began here around 20 minutes ago. Nothing of consequence has accumulated despite the totally frozen ground. Just before 3:00pm my temperature is 28.4 degrees. We'll see what this next hour brings.

Here in Carlisle...near perfect radiational cooling conditions existed here from sunset through sunrise this morning. That allowed the temperature to go from a high of 33.1 degrees yesterday afternoon all the way down to zero this morning. It seems a little weird thinking about rain being possible next week since the persistent cold and snow cover now for 11 days will continue for at least another 4 days.

@canderson check this out... https://www.homedepot.com/p/Anvil-28-in-D-Grip-Short-Wood-Handle-Garden-Spade-77424-948/314833739

@canderson Did a quick search and it looks almost certain that Home Depot would have it. I think you are referring specifically to a garden spade, which is metal and is shaped like a rectangle at the base. $20 - $50.

Well, now you know what weather conditions will have to be like to get to that level of cold. Realistically, the ambient temp is going to have to be at +5 with winds of 35mph to get there. Also, if that level of windchill is forecast, then we go beyond a cold weather advisory into a windchill warning. I really don't want either of those.

For the following I'm assuming -25 F (not C)... To achieve this windchill reading you would need an ambient temperature of +3 F combined with a sustained wind of 41 mph. Increasing windspeeds above 40mph lead to negligible additional chill. For example, a 45mph wind at the same +3 F produces a windchill of -25 F (no change) while a 50mph wind drops the windchill by just one degree F to -26 degrees F. So basically, after 41 mph a nearly 10mph increase in windspeed results in virtually no additional chill. With an ambient temperature of +10 degrees you can't drop to -25F even with a 60mph wind. At that speed the windchill only drops to -18 F ! At an ambient of +15 F the max drop (at 60mph) results in a windchill of -11 F. At 40mph the chill is -8 F. These examples seem to indicate that you must drop to below zero to reach -25 more quickly with a wind of only 30mph. At -5 F ambient you only need a wind speed of 15mph to hit -25 F. At -10 F you only need a wisp of a breeze of 7 mph.

At 11:00 here in Carlisle, the temperature is 31.5 degrees after briefly touching 32.0 10 minutes ago. My low temp occurred at midnight at 19.9 degrees and remained above 20 all night. We all had busted lows overnight that occurred early. My forecast low was 13 degrees after having been set at 10 degrees in the morning forecast. That's a departure of +7 degrees. The high temp here yesterday peaked at 33.3 degrees and broke the string of sub freezing days (just barely). The forecast high for today is 33. I think I will exceed that by several degrees. So, just 2 days above freezing before dropping below again and remaining below for another week straight.

Forgot to chime in earlier today with my low temp. Finally hit and broke below zero degrees with a reading of -0.6 degrees from my primary station and a low of -1.1 degrees from my Tempest, which is roughly 15 feet away and a bit more exposed. Either way both those readings round to -1 officially. I'm staring out my back window and thinking wow, this snowpack has actually lasted one full week! lol Yesterday morning I dropped to +0.6 degrees, so officially +1 degree F. If it wasn't for the 1.13" of liquid that fell last Sunday, I would be ending this month with only 0.60". Instead I'm ending with 1.73" which is still well below normal and unfortunately continues the drought. Finally, looking like my high for today is going to be 20.8 degrees. Should be interesting to see how low we can go early this evening under the clear skies before clouds come in and ruin it. Finally, I can't believe that there is only 1 day this week forecast to break 32 and that is Tuesday with a high of 33. If that happens, the remainder of the week will stay below freezing. Furthermore, another big arctic blast appears to be on the horizon for next Saturday with a forecast high of just 20.