kurtstack

not an all snow setup but with that cad it does have the look of a warning level winter storm!  Trends will be fun to watch this week.

6” measured in burke.  We will see if we can add anything to it today, but even if we dont this was an awesome event love it!!  Hopefully this is just the beginning of a noce 6 week period!

1 hour ago, H2O said:

You have no idea. I have 3. It’s like herding cats at night. Kids suddenly get energy at 9:05pm. Is it illegal to tranquilize children?

I can relate.  I have three (5, 3, 7mo).  i just finished the chaotic night routine that started at 9:00!

Im really looking forward to the snow this weekend.   Credit to psu for doing the research and never (well maybe slightly at one point) losing faith in his analog research for this type of winter starting about jan 20th.  Lets hope its one of those really active backloaded winters.  good luck all you snow weenies!   wishing you all three feet of cold powder this weekend!  Props to bob chill too for never quitting even when the pacific air was overwhelming the conus.  cheers to all the others as well who havent committed their weenie suicides yet.  CHEERS!

28 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

On a brighter note I picked up six bottles of Founders CBS at a gas station in Winchester. Never had it before and was shocked that the $30 per bottle cost. I hear everyone talk about it all the time. It better be amazing.

$30 seems a bit high, but it is excellent.

There were some very positive developments in the 12z GFS regarding ridge trough locations overall.  It will be interesting if the ensembles start trending toward the trough in east ridge in the west look.

this is not necessarily scientific but i was in altoona, pa for the march storm and for the november storm and both times models had em on the northern fringe - forecasts 24 hours out were for a couple inches of snow - in both cases they ended up getting 10”+.  forecast confidence for the fringe areas of storms is mighty low - its probably the most difficult area for forecasters with any storm.

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, upper levels aren't moving much anymore. Nothing new showed up at all today except the wacky CMC phase job. No model is even close to that type of solution. That's probably the only thing that can save us. Confluence could relax enough for more than a dusting but a good event requires a phase from what I'm seeing. No other path unless models are totally blowing the northern stream/confluence.  Seeing a tight cluster now isn't very inspiring...

Yup the models are pretty much in agreement.  That being said ive seen the models all in agreement at 4 days and then all shift together in one model cycle.  So there is still a slim chance.  However we probably need to see that happen at some point tomorrow.  Still think there is a slim shot we score.

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Like what? What the CMC showed? What are the odds of that?

Or really...when was the last time guidance looked this locked in on a suppressed solution 4-5 days out, and it all of the sudden trended much further north?

we have numerous examples of beinf in the bullseye 4 days out only to see our storm end up too far north by gametime.  not saying thats the case but we have been burned many times inside of this range.

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This sounds like a losing battle...If it was gonna work out, surely we'd see evidence of some sort of a trend in our favor (save the Canadian...but how can we evn consider that possibility when nothing else supports it?). Can we just stick a fork in this one?

we are still well outside of the range where we can throw in the towel on this.  While the odds dont look good the northern stream is still jumping around with every model run and there is time for that to become better modeled.  Bottom line the odds are not great but i wouldnt toss in the towel unless this model run occurred 72 hours out.

We are well within the standard deviation of all the globals right now.  Also the models generally dont handle the northern stream very well at range so we are still a day or two away from a good idea of what the northern stream will do.  Its a big player in this equation so we are just gonna have to give it some time.  its pretty clear the southern stream is gonna have what we need.  Overall just gotta wait and see how this evolves over the coming days, but all the players are on the table and whoever gets into snow will likely see heavy snow with this.

We are still a few days from pinning down the northern stream, but I'm happy we are in the game at this point.

Im going to go with the models fringing hoffman day 6 rule of thumb.  We are in a good spot with todays models.

Northern stream came in like mike tyson on that gfs run

Hey guys - I'm back for the winter.  I usually don't drop in here until December 15th, but I looked at the AO and NAO indices and it's telling me we are going to have some early season events to track.  Good to be back and always good to read your great posts.  I'll be lurking and reading most of the winter, but happy to be back tracking with you all.

lets see how close we come on friday to matching this

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6z gfs is even more like jan 1996 at 500 mb

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Dont know if anybody has mentioned it and it is somewhat forbidden to compare 500mb maps of hecs to current modeled scenarios but I couldnt resist

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kinda like a smaller scale 1996 look

Yep, 1996, despite a very short period of sleet.  The wind drifts and accumulations across the area were best I've ever seen.  Was living in Springfield VA at the time.  I remember they couldn't keep the highways clear because of the blowing and drifting.  The blowing and drifting really gave it the edge over the 2009-2010 storms.