WNash

1 hour ago, gmendevils8204 said:

What’s going on up there? I’ve heard great things about their healthcare system. I’m surprised they’re lagging on vaccinations.

Frankly? Largely because there’s limited supply and the US is taking most of what is approved and logistically practical for Canada. 
 

They also have a suspension of the AstraZeneca for under 60s, but that was only ever intended to be a piece of a bigger vaccine mix.

On 4/1/2021 at 12:06 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Just booked a trip out west next month, doing a 10 day loop through Zion National Park, Grand Canyon, Moab, Monument valley, Bryce Canyon. Got a direct flight from Buffalo to Phoenix for $170 through Southwest, first 2 bags are free checked in. Cannot wait! Also bought a new camera got the Sony AIII. Excited to take some pictures of the milky way in the desert! 

We did a week long loop several years ago that started and ended in Las Vegas that included the Hoover Dam/Lake Mead, Grand Canyon (south rim), Sedona, Lake Powell, Grand Staircase, Bryce, and Zion. Great trip. I recommend driving east along the Grand Canyon rim then along the Little Colorado canyon. Stayed in Flagstaff — great town, and at 7000 feet they get plenty of snow, though we were there in the summer. The main regret was that we didn’t go to the North Rim, but that’s a very long drive or a brutal hike in summer heat.

This thread has really become a toxic waste dump of denialist BS.

4 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Wicked squall with that line. About 5 minutes of blinding rain and wind. Looks like another one fired up right behind it. Calm winds here now with frequent lightning. 

The wind was wild, but the peak gusts were between my measurements (I think the Tempest senses wind speed and direction every six seconds).

22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

City is about to get smacked!  Seeing a bit of bow pushing out..

That was a hell of a storm. The anemometer on my tempest didn’t register the most extreme gusts, but contrary to KBUF’s claim in their warning that there was little lightning in the storm, there was quite a bit as the line passed through.

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

All the government spending didn't really help the small guy though. That's also my point. Check out this article. Billionaires got richer during COVID during anytime in our history. We need a completely new tax structure for the rich. Has anyones wealth here grown 50%+ during covid? I can say it hasn't for me. 

https://inequality.org/great-divide/updates-billionaire-pandemic/

You’re totally right on this. 100% of one party and 99% of the other party exist mainly to give rich people everything they want. COVID is a classic example of crisis capitalism.

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This was only the case after Dec 31st...There was no letter needed before that date. Last years rent is a complete loss. the eviction moratorium has been extended until May 31st. The tenants haven't written anything and they are still unable to get evicted. I grew up poorer than probably anyone on these forums and I am by no means rich at all. My parents both made min. wage and my dad worked 12 hour days for 30 years to get promoted in his company and get to where he is today. I grew up in the city where people hated working and stayed at home all day on the porch living off the system.  I'm not a fan of that. To each their own. 

Those tenants sound like trash and I’m sorry your dad has to deal with them.

10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My dads tenants haven't paid rent in over a year and hes short almost $20k. The stim package includes rental assistance but only if the tenant applies for it. If my dad changes the locks and kicks them out he gets charged a misdemeanor. His lawyer said there is nothing he can do. The tenants in his apartment don't care at all, they are not going to put forth any effort to get the rental assistance to help my dad out. They have big TVS and xboxs being mailed to their house nearly every week. My dad still has a mortgage to pay. Its unfair. 

It sounds like he has the world’s worst tenants. How do you even need big TVs sent to you every week?

Bad tenants aside, does he have more than 10 rental properties? If not, he qualifies for mortgage relief. And if his lawyer doesn’t know that or can’t challenge a false attestation, he’s a bad lawyer.

14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone nervous about the massive amount of government money being sent out like its nothing? You don't have to pay rent/mortgage ever again, you get unemployment forever, and free college/health insurance in the near future? I'll never have to work again, more time for storm chasing! 

The federal government increased the money supply by about $2.3 trillion over the next six years with the 2017 tax cuts (effectively deficit spending, since they are offset by hypothetical increases down the line that are so politically toxic that they will never happen), along with two stimulus packages in 2020 that totaled about $2.3 trillion. And that’s not counting the $3.5 trillion in pure deficit spending between 2017 and pre-pandemic FY2020.

It’s absolutely bonkers that people who aren’t actually rich look the other way when the wealthiest 1% back up their armored trucks to the US Treasury so the politicians can fill them up with public money, but wail and rend their garments and pray for the future when a pittance is used to help regular people.

Are there scumbags out there who cheat the public trust so they can get some extra food stamps and rent support? Yeah, just like there are scumbags whose have nothing to offer society but whose parents give them money for all the cocaine they want and buy up every politician who is for sale and end up lording it over the rest of us. I’m not the slightest bit interested in sticking it to all the people who have had every break go against them since they were born into this world just because a handful of small time crooks run obvious scams.

I don’t know where you’re getting this “never have to pay rent again” BS - the eviction moratorium requires an attestation that you can’t afford to pay rent because of COVID related job loss but it doesn’t wipe debts clean. That money is still owed. And landlords have rejected false attestations and won,  but the problem who can get get to move in when the tenants with money aren’t renting cheap housing. And actual small-holdings landlords (less than 10 units) get full protection for credit worthiness and against foreclosure. And what the hell is wrong with free college or health insurance? My parents went to college in the day when it was so cheap that it was basically free. And my wife’s parents had their health insurance premiums paid by her dad’s employer, with no copays. We have been told that we can’t have “free” things (which we actually work and pay taxes for) by people who have far more money than us, and took what we used to get so they can have a fourth house or a third yacht. Maybe you’re a rich guy, lucky you, but if you’re not, don’t be a chump.

20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The entire country got quite a bit of snow this year.

 

 

This map sent me on a hunt for annual snowfall numbers for the midsection of the US. That area of blue in central and eastern KS through central MO (with a bit more blue in and near St. Louis) looks pretty bad, but those are areas which only average 12-15 inches, so they're not far off the mark. The Dakotas (especially ND) seem to have gotten the shaft this winter -- ND looks to average about 35-45 inches across most of the state, but the SE of the state maxes out at 2 ft+, and a huge chunk of ND was at 1 ft or less. Of course, they can get late season storms, so it's not over for them like it probably is in KS.

I didn't know South Dakota did so much worse that ND - the snowiest part of SD seems to be the Black Hills, which look more like ND, but the rest of the state seems to get snowfalls totals in the 15-25 inch range on average, closer to places like Idaho , northern Illinois/Indiana/Ohio than to MN/WI, which are due east.

Lol KBUF issued a SWS at 6:12 for a squall to sweep down the Niagara Frontier, bringing a burst of heavy snow. I checked the radar around 7:15 and the squall was over North Tonawanda and sweeping south ... but by 7:30 the western flank of the squall had fallen apart. I saw a couple of flurries at 7:40 and that was it. Perfect recap to a week and a half of bust after bust for most of the Buffalo metro. But congrats to the usual suspects (Springville, Eden, Holland, East Aurora) — probably the most impressive band off Lake Erie all season. 

25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yes! Doesn’t get much worse. Hopefully this will be the last in a cycle. I’m still trying to get a place in the Adirondacks so I can get my fix. Property is in short supply up there. 
Too many disappointments on the south shore to even count. 
Check please

We have been looking in the near southern tier (Chautauqua and Cattaraugus) for a place with lake frontage, but we haven't seen what we want, and we're not in a hurry, so we can keep looking until we find it. Chautauqua Lake would be ideal, but a single family lakefront house is way out of our price range. The little glacial lakes in northern Chautauqua would be almost perfect - 1300 feet of elevation, good year-round fishing, and situated in the part of the Chautauqua Ridge that jackpots anytime there's a little cold air and a breeze from the west. Bear Lake is at the same elevation only 10 miles SW as that coop observer in Perrysburg who reports at least 200" every winter. I could be happy living in the relative snow desert of the northtowns if I could get all the snow I wanted by driving a little over an hour from home.

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Anyone get the vaccine yet? 

Appointment on Friday. I'll let everyone know how it goes.

Sheets of pingers in NE Buffalo. 

50 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Did I mention that I like this one? Lol

While the next few days look good for basically everyone on this forum, this is the kind of set-up where Rochester cashes in. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out for you guys.

3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Beautiful look. Waaaay out. 

This is the kind of setup that would bring crazy winter weather to Tennessee when I was a kid. Going south to north over a few hundred miles, you would get severe thunderstorms (sometimes with embedded tornados), the an ice storm where was overrunning the issue, and a stripe of 6-10” snowfall north of that. A deepening low tracking along an arctic front was was guaranteed to be wild, and was more exciting that the other kinds of snowmakers in the south (weak clippers putting down T to 3”, and the lottery ticket of a cut-off low).

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Here come the videos! 40 seconds to the end is complete whiteouts.

 

Great videos! The weather gods must have read my weenie complaining this morning, because that three hour period in the early afternoon including the best daytime LES conditions I have seen in the N Buffalo to Amherst corridor in several years. More than an hour of the 3”/hr whiteout stuff and around 2 hours of heavy 2”/hr snow. I have a three year old who insisted on making a snowman in those conditions. One of these years we’ll get one of those old school Northtowns crushers that sits in place the better part of a day, but this afternoon’s whiteout band mostly made up for the overall bust (we ended up with maybe 10-11” including last night’s minor accumulation). Hitting the February and March snowfall averages might bring us within shouting distance of our 30 year climo average.

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Well then...About 45 minutes ago radar showed heavy returns JUST to my south. So I did a little foot chase down Burroughs Dr to Main St (about 3/4 mile from my house to Main). Left house with a nice gentle 1”/hr snowfall. Rate nicely increased to about 2”/hour when I made it to Main St. Then it got real fun...Wind picked up and rate doubled. I would compare it to being caught in a torrential downpour. Just an absolute wall of white. I walked by a house with people in the garage and heard someone say “is that a person out there?”  Just arrived back home to about 3”/hour here. Sweetness. 

That’s near Smallwood, right? You and I basically live on the same heading relative to the lake, about 2 or 3 miles apart.

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Where are you located?

Near UB South Campus. We are exactly 4.25 miles due west of the Doppler radar site at KBUF, so it’s pretty easy to use a radar animation to project our residence time within a band.

Later today I’ll update my profile here to include a PWS link, which should make it clear where I live when I comment here.

We got under the heaviest returns for about 20 minutes as the band has been moving north. Glorious stuff! Our front windows are less than 10 yards from the wide street in front of our house, and we couldn’t see the plow that we could hear rattling past on the other side of the street. I didn’t go out to measure, but the viability was comparable to 3” per hour stuff I’ve seen in the heart of lake bands at my mother-in-law’s house in Gardenville. This was definitely the heaviest snow we have had since we moved to the University District several years ago. While it would have been awesome for the band to have stalled for a few hours, I’m grateful that we at least got a taste of the good stuff, instead of the total bust that it looked like earlier this morning.

Update: we’re now getting light snow and the sky is very bright, so that band is hauling ass.

What an appropriate end to a sorry lake season off Erie that IMBY grades out to a D instead of an F solely because of the one double-barreled event after Christmas that put down a little less than 15” over three days and barely verified the warning criteria. KBUF is just under 4 ft on the year, about half of which came from doing well over the few days after Christmas. By mostly missing out on that solid event, points north of the airport are well under 3 ft. Without getting lucky with synoptic, this will be a bottom 10 season for much of the metro, and may even be close to bottom 10 for the official station.

I’m going to toss this season and spend this morning ordering seeds for my vegetable garden. 

Total bust here. Impossible to measure what fell, but if it’s an inch I would be surprised. It’s hard to believe that there have ever been any events where the part of the metro north of the Thruway got jackpotted. What used to be a rare event is now a near impossibility. Variables have to line up perfectly for the northern part of the metro to get buried, and any inconsistency between weather models means that those variables aren’t going to work out. It’s frustrating, because Watertown is on an almost identical heading off Ontario as North Buffalo/Ken-Ton/Snyder/Amherst is off Erie, yet the same conditions that have bulls-eyed Watertown give the shaft to the northern third of Erie County.

We’re at the point now there the best that downtown and north can hope for is that a backing flow sends a transient band overhead for a couple of hours. At best, the sloppy seconds from the southtowns will put down a few inches on the way up and on the way back down. Over the last 5-10 years, the very best lake events for us are ones where the band firehoses for half a day, passing though a few times before stabilizing in OP or Hamburg or more often even further south in ski country and putting down the real snow. The closest thing to a northern Erie storm since 2006 are the occasional events where the backing flow stops in a heading from South Buffalo to the airport, and puts down 15-18 inches  before sinking down to Springville or Chautauqua County to drop 30-40 inches.

42 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I mean we did get, well I did at least, 14.5” after Christmas and it was picked over for a bit, same with 2018 January blizzard but yes your point is taken. Still this one isn’t over yet... NWS doesn’t like to bust if they don’t have to do I’m still somewhat hopeful...

The post-Christmas storm was great, but it was a step down from the N Buffalo/ Northtowns blockbuster that global models showed until the mesoscale models were within range. As it turned out, it was one of the best storms of the past decade, but it in no ways was a northern metro jackpot. Storms like that one are how the northern part of the metro reaches seasonal snowfall averages, but it was definitely a southtowns jackpot that we were lucky enough to see back over the northern metro a couple of times, and which had a nice residency as far north as a S Buffalo to KBUF line.

I’ll take the weenie tag on this, but every season I hold out hope for a pure SW flow bomb that sits still for a day or more and buries N Buffalo and the northtowns. They are infrequent at best in good times, but we’re now approaching 20+ years (15 of you count the October 2006 storm, but that one seems to be climatologically unique in Buffalo’s recorded history). With the lake freezing up, I think the storm today and tomorrow is our last shot for this year.

1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

That’s SBS and my old stomping grounds lol. I’m on the edge of the 8-12 and 12-18 zone. I think they are going to bust hard on this one especially from the north side of the city out to Amherst. I’m fully expecting less than 4” total here and if I’m wrong I’ll be glad to admit it. 

I haven’t been feeling this one either. It seems like there are three possible outcomes for lake storms forecasted to hit the northern part of the metro: bust, sloppy seconds in an itinerant, share-the-wealth event, or jackpot. To get a jackpot, things have to line up perfectly and there has to be unbroken model consistency for days. As a result, a bust is the most likely outcome. The best we have been able to hope for over the last nearly 20 years is that a firehose band passes over us a few times on its way to settling in the southtowns. This storm looked great for the northern metro until about 36 hours out, but once models stated depicting a flow veering towards WSW, the game was over. At this point we will be lucky to get a half foot.

2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

If he knows it’s wrong why does he even go out an post something like this...

 

The tenths of an inch imply so much precision that you have to laugh.