pondo1000

29 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like some 7 to 10 inch totals in parts of east central Ohio.

7 here in Powell 

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Knowing Easter is March 31st this year, I joked with my mom as we handed out candy to trick or treaters through snow squalls, that with a snowy Halloween, we would have no snow on Christmas and a white Easter. One down...one to go.

Yeah, feel like snow on Halloween seems to be the kiss of death.

Snow globe ATM but not still not sticking to streets.

Good ‘ole HM….lock it in! LMAO!

Thread sits at 4 pages on 2/2. Winters are just pathetic anymore. 

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

A track from Louisiana to central WV in the heart of the coldest part of winter.   

Pretty much sums it up!!!!

4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I see what you did there     
 

Gotta enjoy the next 2 days with some snow around…might be our whole winter.

No, no, no….February will be rocking! SSWE! LMAO! How many times have we heard that over the years?! Hope ur doing well Buck!

These models are getting racy!

3 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Sure enough later runs are going poof

Beggars can’t be choosers! 2 inches (more with higher ratios) gonna feel like 2 feet around here where it doesn’t snow anymore. 

10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

So we couldn't buy a sub 980 low tracking through our sub the last several winters.....now the 18z gfs has TWO sub 980 lows not only tracking through the region but taking an almost identical track 72 hrs apart.    ok

I guess anything is possible and the most believable part of it is that CMH is on the warm side of both.     Actually I still think the weekend storm isn't set in stone yet....   but I've been wrong before.

Sure hope we’re not being set up for a disappointing snow to the north, then snow to the south (the one after this wknd) of us scenario. 

7 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Potential storm brewing for next Sunday, surprised there's no talk in here about it. 

Probably b/c it’s been sooooo long & kind of believe it when I see it. More of a Saturday than Sunday though right?

20 hours ago, OHweather said:

Wanted to lay out some things happening with some larger scale pattern drivers now and over the next few weeks and look at how they may impact chances for cold and snow potential. Chicago Storm's post on the prior page touched on most of these things. Behavior of the Pacific jet and potential for high latitude blocking will determine much of how this goes...something that can probably be said most of the time in the winter months. 

Not to be a wet blanket here but I don't want to get expectations unrealistically high at this point. Much of the subforum is going to be in a rather substantial seasonal snowfall hole before any sort of sustained colder pattern develops. In a strong El Nino it's inherently harder to get into a polar jet dominated pattern with lots of cold, clippers, and lake effect snow...those are patterns that are productive for much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. The mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley portion of this subforum has lower annual snowfall and may get lucky with an active subtropical jet in an El Nino, so on that I would say that region has the greatest potential to rally and finish near or somewhat above average snowfall at this point...if anyone can. For the rest of the sub a below average seasonal snowfall is by far the more likely outcome at this point, but the pattern will be colder and more conducive to snow at times so I don't think we're looking at another year without a winter. We should see some windows of more wintry conditions. 

A significant influence on the Pacific jet stream is East Asian Mountain Torque (EAMT). Remember that big cold blast in Siberia earlier this month? The Arctic high associated with that dropped across eastern Asia (and is still doing so early in the above loop). This denser airmass and higher pressure east of the Himalayas puts a torque against the planet's rotation, slowing it down an imperceptible amount. To conserve momentum, this is compensated for by speeding up the jet stream over the Pacific...promoting stormier conditions over the northern Pacific. The Rockies can have a similar affect on the jet stream over the north Atlantic.

Note how a strong positive EAMT event occurred over the last week or so as the Siberian high dropped into eastern Asia. EAMT will generally trend more negative over the next 2-3 weeks, though I'd say it's possible we see one last little push of +EAMT in the first few days of January which may be important to determining how quickly the Pacific jet retracts in the coming weeks. 

The strong +EAMT led to the dramatic intensification of the north Pacific jet ongoing now, though the jet will begin retracting over the coming days and continue retracting/weakening into early January as EAMT trends more negative (and as tropical forcing changes, will get into that below). The stronger jet leads to stronger ageostrophic flow within its embedded jet streaks, encouraging a stormier (and amplified) pattern, especially near the eastern edge of the jet where the upper-level flow is most diffluent. 

As the jet reached its easternmost extension over the last few days the stormy pattern was over the southwestern US with ridging amplifying northeast of that. As the jet begins retracting over the next several days the stormy pattern will shift west into the Pacific, allowing ridging to shift west towards the west coast and Alaska while continuing to amplify. This jet evolution has strongly contributed to our ongoing mild pattern and the change will contribute to a period of cooler conditions to start January. 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/awinters/realtime/Deterministic_NPJPD.php

Wanted to demonstrate how important the Pacific jet has been on the pattern we are seeing. Per the analysis, we went from a jet retraction in mid December to a recent poleward shift of the jet. The jet is expected to be more characteristic of the "jet extension" phase the rest of this month, before briefly moving through an Equatorward Shift space back towards jet retraction (due to the negative trend in the East Asian Mountain Torque). 

Poleward shift heights and resultant temperatures:

A very Pacific-dominated pattern with minimal polar/arctic influence and very mild conditions across a good portion of Canada and the northern CONUS. Very similar to what we're currently seeing. 

How about a jet extension, which is what we'll see over the coming days?

Supports increasing heights along the West Coast and into Alaska, less Pacific influence, and at least some polar and arctic influence into North America, with cooler anomalies over parts of the eastern U.S. Looks a bit like the pattern showing up on the models and ensembles over the next week.

An equatorward shift is inherently hard to sustain in an El Nino but is most conducive to EPO-induced cold shots into southern Canada and the CONUS:

Jet retractions favor flatting ridging farther west over the North Pacific...a -PNA pattern, which is showing up in the extended ensembles...

 

Tropical forcing is also influencing the pattern...the MJO is making a fairly amplified pass through phases 1-2 through early January:

This supports amplification of western North American ridging and at least some semblance of a -NAO (Phase 1 top, Phase 2 bottom):

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

So far the East Asian Mountain torque and tropical forcing do a good job of explaining the evolution of the Pacific jet and the recent/upcoming North American pattern. The troposphere and stratosphere have seemed to be relatively well-coupled so far this season, with an amplified pattern in the troposphere in late November and early December leading to increased upward heat and wave fluxes into the stratosphere. This has led to an ongoing stratospheric warming event that appears poised to downwell into the troposphere. 

https://stratobserve.com/anom_ts_diags

Not only do the mountain torque and tropical forcing support amplified ridging on the west coast into Alaska the rest of this month into early January, along with perhaps a -NAO, but the downwelling negative AO out of the stratosphere supports high-latitude blocking. Lots of factors supporting the pattern change that will be getting underway very soon. 

Here's a look at the EPS mean 500mb and surface temperature forecasts through the upcoming pattern change:

The 500mb evolution shown on the ensemble seems strongly supported by the various forcings described above over the next 10 days. The ongoing storm over the central U.S. starts carving out a trough over the eastern US over the next several days, with amplifying ridging on the west coast deepening the trough over the next 10 days as energy ejects out of the southwest U.S. in the subtropical jet. This leads to increased polar influence into Canada and the U.S., but the source region is currently very mild which will take quite a while to completely overcome. 

 

The result is a cooler trend over the CONUS, especially over the southern U.S. where the active subtropical jet keeps conditions more active. Over Canada it remains generally mild for the foreseeable future but certainly trends much less mild than recent conditions. It's worth noting that this is a change from temperatures well above freezing all the way to Hudson Bay to sub-zero temperatures (on the ensemble mean) down to at least that latitude:

The tug of colder air behind the current Plains storm is very meager but the colder air becomes much more "tappable" by the beginning of January, so any storms that develop will be able to pull in seasonally cold air. Nothing crazy but certainly much more wintry feeling that at the moment. Note those frames are all 12z which catches something close to the daily lows.

While the tropical forcing, mountain torque/Pacific jet, and stratospheric influence support upcoming amplification of ridging along the West Coast into Alaska and perhaps a -NAO, there are certainly hints at a more -PNA pattern taking hold in two weeks. Is that legit? 

Recall back to the SLP loop and the mountain torque discussion:

A sustained negative EAMT event appears likely in early January, supporting retraction of the Pacific jet (and a -PNA). Note how a similar evolution (about a week later) of Rocky Mountain Torque supports ridging over the North Atlantic, as a +RMT and strong North Atlantic jet to start January gives way to a -RMT and weakened North Atlantic jet by the second week of the month. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]}

There is some uncertainty regarding how the MJO evolves beyond the next 10 days. Many ensemble members have the wave weakening and moving into the "circle" in the day 15-20 range (blue and green dots, valid the 2nd week of January). A number of members maintain amplitude into phase 3 and some into phase 4 and 5. That seems unlikely but the ongoing stratospheric warming event may support a stronger and more amplified MJO moving across the Indian Ocean and into the western Pacific mid-late January...a trend worth monitoring. Even a phase 3 MJO in early January suggests a trend to a more -PNA/west coast trough:

To sum up where things are so far:

Tropical forcing, mountain torque/the Pacific jet and stratosphere support a pattern change over the next week. This will increase polar influence into Canada and the U.S. and favor development of an eastern U.S. trough during the first week of January. Mountain torque and tropical forcing suggest continued Pacific jet retraction in early to mid-January, which will encourage ridging to retrograde across Alaska as troughing over the eastern CONUS also retrogrades/shifts west. This will lead to conditions initially supporting any southern stream systems bringing a wintry threat to the interior Southeast/Mid Atlantic the first few days of January, but with wintry potential shifting west across this subforum in the January 4-10 range...perhaps lingering through the middle of January if ridging doesn't shift west towards the west coast too quickly. With generally mild conditions persisting over Canada the pattern won't favor strong clippers or huge arctic outbreaks that can set off days-long lake effect snow storms, but southern stream storms may be able to bring swaths of snow if they phase enough with the polar jet. And, a modest clipper and some lake effect could still be possible with Canada trending more seasonal. 

Looking further ahead, a number of EPS members have a significant stratospheric warming event (SSW) between January 5-15. If this occurred it would lead to greatly increased potential for sustained high-latitude blocking beginning in late January and persisting well into (and perhaps through) February. It is very common for a warm-up to occur over the central and eastern U.S. as a stratospheric warming event is ongoing, before any blocking it sets off can establish. This would line up with hints of a -PNA and +EPO towards the middle of January. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml 

Looking at tropical forcing, the forcing has generally been amplified over the central Pacific (near 180 longitude) and over the western Indian Ocean (near 25E), roughly outlined by the green boxes. Tropical forcing has generally been suppressed between these two areas. The tropical forcing has moved through the western hemisphere (phase 1 MJO and favorable for colder weather) every 3-4 weeks.

If this continued it would move back through the western hemisphere by the middle of January. However, it seems like the tropical forcing was more driven by faster-moving Kelvin Waves until the two most-recent orbits, which featured stronger and slower-moving anomalies more typical of the MJO. This most recent pass remained strong through the eastern Indian Ocean subsidence zone but also took closer to 4-5 weeks to return to the western hemisphere. If this more recent trend continues it will return to the western hemisphere in the ~3rd week of January and support a more favorable Pacific influence on the pattern, along with a -NAO. However, the stratospheric warming event over the pole leads to a colder lower stratosphere over the tropics, which may amplify and slow down the progression of the tropical forcing. I would say smart money is on tropical forcing becoming favorable for a western North America ridge to return during the last week of January. Potential exists for prolonged -NAO blocking by then if we do in fact see a major stratospheric warming event (which appears likely during the first half of January). 

After the cool down into early January, leading to a favorable pattern for any amplified southern stream system to bring snow potential to the region in the January 4-10th timeframe, along with perhaps a modest clipper and some lake effect, a trend towards a trough with colder air over the western U.S. and ridging farther east is supported for the middle portion of January. By the end of January potential appears to be there for impacts from a stratospheric warming event and tropical forcing to support a western North American ridge, eastern trough, and high-latitude blocking with an active southern stream. This would lead to a few week period of more wintry weather, and while unlikely to make up for seasonal snowfall deficits completely could salvage a semblance of a winter in the region. 

Solid stuff as usual!!!

On 10/30/2023 at 10:02 PM, OHweather said:

I haven't put one out yet. I will try to over the next few weeks, or at the least post some medium-long range thoughts in the long range thread. Off the cuff, I've had some mixed feelings but unfortunately am leaning pessimistic for our region. Now, could it be somewhat better than last winter? Sure. But much more than that probably is asking a lot. It is looking increasingly likely that this winter will feature a strong, east-based or traditional El Nino. Water temperature anomalies are already near +1.5C in Nino region 3.4, and don't appear likely to start cooling anytime soon. And the warmest anomalies are closer to South America, making this a more traditional El Nino. This likely means the sub-tropical jet will be quite active and that Pacific air will frequently flood the continent, making it hard to build up true cold air over Canada. This will be an El Nino with a -QBO (easterly wind anomalies in the stratosphere), which is a good combination for possible disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex. That could lead to a -AO/-NAO trend later in winter. So, if we do see a period of blocking and the sub-tropical jet is active perhaps there's some potential for a larger system to produce snow out of the sub-tropical stream. However, I think the strong El Nino and lack of Arctic air will lead to fewer clippers than normal and generally less snow than normal, unless we get lucky with some sub-tropical jet help.

There has been a lot of talk that this isn't a winter to use strong El Nino climo for the winter outlook, and I understand some of the reservations as the pattern hasn't acted like a developing strong El Nino this summer. I think the lingering affects on the atmospheric circulation after 3 years of La Nina, aided by a strong -PDO, and the anomalous warmth of the Atlantic offset the atmospheric response to the developing El Nino...however, I believe we're starting to see the atmosphere respond to the borderline strong El Nino and strong positive Indian Ocean dipole. Tropical forcing is beginning to become more persistent over the western Indian Ocean and the Pacific. While perhaps the lingering oddities can lead to a random cold shot in later November or December if we briefly get some help from the MJO before the El Nino pattern truly locks in, I'm thinking this winter does act like an El Nino, leading to my overall pessimism. With that said, I've been wrong about these things for sure, and I'll try to look more in-depth over the coming weeks. 

Appreciate your thoughts as always man!!

14 hours ago, OHweather said:

Probably won't stick more than some grassy coatings here and there, but it looks like most of the state will see their first flakes with a potent trough passage Tuesday evening. Maybe even the bursty convective stuff in a few spots. 

Hey there! Did you do any winter forecast yet? Would be very interested in your thoughts. Thx!

Well, it’s official. February 2023 was the LEAST snowiest on record for Columbus with a TRACE. Easily a D- in my book for this winter. ONLY reason not an F in my book is b/c of white Christmas. So, in light of that, GO F YOURSELF MOTHER NATURE!!!

Can’t wait for a miserable spring soccer season too. Yippee!!!

You fellow Ohio’ins take care of yourself & hope to talk a lot more snow next winter!

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

euro laughs at gfs

has a strung out southern POS before the next cutter develops.   Gonna be hard to get cold into the game when there's no high pressure in Canada, only a bunch of LPs dancing all around.

Yup, worlds apart!!! LOL

March ‘08 redux anyone? 

12 minutes ago, buckeye said:

ugh, from 84 degrees, blue skies, soft breeze, and sipping away my days with mojitos and rum and cokes....to this craptastic 35 degrees, gray, and slushy slop piles.    Well at least I have a nice tan lol.

Next week kinda looks interesting depending on where that boundary settles in...  icestorm anyone?

Oh, you missed ALL the action!! LOL

Hope you had a nice trip!!

8 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Nothing like heavy rain on a winter morning, snowed IMBY from 2am to 7am on the SE side of Dayton, had a little over 3" around 5am and was washded down to a little over an inch by 9am.  

Overperformer Sunday followed by an underperformer a few days later. Take what we can get I guess. 

3 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Well boys and girls if this is going to hold on for the I-71 corridor we're going to need low dew points to start and the column cooling like the Sunday storm?   very rare for repeat storms like this in our neck of the woods!

Book it! Don’t be scared!! LOL If we score again, Buckeye is not allowed back in here when he gets back!!

1 minute ago, HighTechEE said:

ILN just addded another SE teir of counties in the WSWatch.

WSW? Haven’t seen them hoisted?

15 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Well, hello beautiful.

Sweet!!! Bring it!

16 minutes ago, buckeye said:

thanks! 6 days of 'forget about life for awhile'.  Coming back to snow or something to track would take the edge off returning to our usual depressing climo.   So let's see what you guys can do to make that happen .  Maybe find where Josh's magnet went, clearly he's misplaced it.

Let’s hope! This has been really bad.

15 minutes ago, buckeye said:

My snowblower is still sitting in the back of the garage with a flat tire.   The thing is a monster, more suitable for Buffalo then CMH but I got it super cheap brand new, ($168.00 a couple of summers ago).   I was going to pull it out for the xmas eve snow but it was too damn cold and snow was like dry sand anyways.   I'm heading for the carribean for a short vacation...hopefully something delivers on Sunday so I come back to snow followed by another storm on our doorstep later in the week.    Truth be told, I'm worried next week's snow and turn to cold might be another headfake....just another batch of weakening lows and cold starved systems....hope not.  The gfs is a dumpster fire but the euro is 

Have a great vaca Buck!