ict1523

Steady light snow here in Hamilton Heights. Has given the car tops a fresh coating. 

A few snowflakes mixing in with the rain and sleet in Jersey City.

Looks like we missed the record low by a degree.

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Sorry. It's just a little pet peeve of mine when people call it heavy rain in these types of storms. I've had the heaviest radar echoes going over me in the last half hour, and it's not even coming down half as heavily as it did during our heavy downpours in t-storms this summer. These noreaster type of storms really just have mostly moderate rain, but of course rainfall totals will be very impressive because it lasts several hours. It just doesn't excite me like the blinding downpours in summer t-storms do. The winds tomorrow will be much more exciting.

Unfortunately heavy rain isn't defined by whether it excites you or not. 

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Getting into the peak of the rain event with the yellows and oranges on radar going over us. Coming down good but I wouldn't go as far as calling it heavy rain. It's nothing compared to the very heavy rain you get in summer t-storms, where you can get an inch of rain in 20 minutes. This is more like a high end moderate rain, but of course we will end up with very heavy rainfall totals because it lasts much longer than a summer t-storm. But this definitely isn't HEAVY rain. It seems heavy for this time of year, but again nothing like the true heavy rain in summer downpours.

You could have used heavy rain in this paragraph a few more times to make sure we'd definitely get your point. 

And yes, there is a burst of heavy rain right now here in Hamilton Heights. 

No shortage of rain here in Europe. Left NYC on 9/26 and had at least some rain every single day since.

In Iceland now, finally got a mostly dry day today, but it featured sustained winds of 30-50mph with gusts to 80mph. Exciting!

3 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

 

One of the most memorable severe weather events I've experienced in NYC. Lived in Queens at the time and remember having a hard time getting home from work because every street was blocked by downed trees. 

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Unreal, worst luck possible. Three drops on the uws. Time to break out the hoses.

Same here in Harlem. I feel like every storm this year has crossed from Jersey City just to the south and into Brooklyn.

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow, some incredible rates with the first cell here in manhattan. Instant flash flooding. 4-5” type rates  

Yup. Riverside Drive and Henry Hudson instantly turned into a mess.

And the skies opened up in Hamilton Heights.

Seems like we’re going in and out of cells with on and off heavy rain, but that’s about all we’re seeing. Not even any lightning or thunder the last 30 minutes. 

5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Not sure you call this rotation, but looking west from my window in midtown, I can clearly see a layer of clouds moving South (while the direction of the storms is from SW to NE).

It's ominous as sh*t.

Had a pretty good unobstructed view of it from the Pulaski Skyway.

After the constant cloud cover for the past year, I am not going to complain about a short dry period. 

Hate the heat, but need the sun. 

Thankfully the storms just missed the pride parade. Had a few minutes of very gusty winds and some scattered rain drops, but that's about it!

The one time I won't complain about a storm missing me. 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The historic heat wave that has been affecting western Europe centered on France and Spain abated somewhat today. Nevertheless, daily and, in some cases, monthly records were still matched or broken.

Select high temperatures included: Aurillac, France: 99° (Tied June record); La Heve, France: 97° (Tied all-time record); Le Mans, France: 102° (June record); Logrono, Spain: 108° (June record); Pamplona, Spain: 104° (June record); Pirineos, Spain: 104° (June record); Poitiers, France: 100° (Tied June record); Torrejon, Spain: 106° (June record); Toulouse, France: 104° (Tied June record); Tours, France: 102° (June record); and, Zaragoza, Spain: 109° (June record).

Ahead of the cold front that brought strong and severe thunderstorms to parts of the Middle Atlantic region from Staten Island southward, high temperatures included: Baltimore: 97°; New York City: 91°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 94°; Richmond: 96°; Washington, DC: 96°; and, Wilmington, DE: 93°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July.

The SOI was -25.87 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.946. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and likely beyond it.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. As suggested by the guidance and pattern, the closing week of June has experienced some of the warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 28, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.036 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.164.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July.

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 76%. The most likely monthly mean temperature figure is 71.6° (71.5° to 71.7°). New York City also remains on track for 50" or more precipitation this year. With today's 0.08" figure, there is an implied 70% probability of such an outcome this year.

Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The heat has been extremely impressive, probably even more so in central and eastern Europe, at least when you factor in longevity. Warsaw, Poland, for example, is averaging a warmer June than NYC as of the 29th. The June average is 72.3F, a whopping +9.2 above their 63.2 June normal. There were only 8 days with a high temperature below 80, 5 90+ degree days (with the potential for a 6th tomorrow). 

Had some very strong winds with the storm around Newark. Probably 50mph gusts.

I believe this is also the first time since 2009 that we have not had a 70+ degree low at Central Park as of June 23rd.

Not much of anything here. Did not hear any thunder and there are dry patches under the trees.

Radar makes it seem like a few showers are moving through, but I’ve had steady to heavy rain for the last half hour at least around Newark.

5” in Hamilton Heights.

Third day in a row with measurable snow. This winter saved itself from an F.

Big fat quarter sized flakes. Most surfaces covered.

All snow now, picking up in intensity in Hamilton Heights. Non treated surfaces succumbing already.

Changed to mostly snow around 145th Street in Harlem.

Started out as sleet in LIC.

1.2" in Hamilton Heights. Nice surprise. Two days in a row.