tamarack

1 hour ago, kazimirkai said:

I'm in the snow hole SE of the Catskills and we get the down slope warming during all the NW cold air outbreaks and inland storm tracks that's only just starting to show up on climatology maps. It's annoying

We lose out from downsloping too, but we also save a lot of snow, both in the air and on the ground, through CAD.  Maybe the clown maps don't account for that?

25 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Kuchie paints a better picture, snow regardless

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Two more clown maps with a snow hole east from the Whites (including my area, of course).  I've seen that phenomenon far too often to think it's merely random.  Fortunately, things rarely turn out so poorly here.  (Especially last March-April)

Event total 1.77" thru 7 this morning, month total 1.92".  Saw a few catpaws at 750' on Weeks Mills Road this morning, all RA at 390' at home.

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The thing about the pattern breaking down sometime in December should be the understanding that we almost never go wire to wire this early.  

And the Grinch is waiting.

43 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Most delayed first flake ever?

'Fraid so - previous flake tardiness record was 11/21/04.  That winter had no snowfalls greater than 3.4" thru Feb 9, after which we had 60" in 31 days, finishing with 94", 5" AN.

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Snow level about 400' in NJ.  Crazy seeing rain on the cam at Jay and snow here. though only a dusting.  Above 1000' in NW Jersey by ski resort has 6-12.

Where I grew up in NNJ is at 700, probably a couple inches there.

Had 0.39" thru 7 AM, about ~0.2" since.  Still haven't seen a flake this season.

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

High Point NJ 19.5"

At 1,800' asl.  My NNJ HS (Butler) had a 2-hour delay this morning, probably about 2" there.  I've yet to see a flake.  Weird wx is fun.

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Newark could end up getting their first T of snow (maybe even like 1/2'') before places like BDL, ORH, BOS...did BTV get anything with that cold shot a few weeks back?

And before here in the Maine foothills?  Latest I've had to wait for the season's first flakes is today's date, so a new late start whenever one is seen.  We head for SNJ this coming Tuesday and there's a chance that no flakes arrive before then.
 

even BWI may be able to pull some minor accumulation 

Another 2009-10 on the way?  That was the season when they got 7" more than CAR.  

GYX overnight shift QPF was 1.5-2 here yesterday, 1-1.5 this morning.  Daytime shifts Tues-Wed 0.5-1 both days.  Models flipping?

Cloudy with a raw wind and low 40s.  Hoped the deer would be moving ahead of the storm.  If they were, it was elsewhere.

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

December but both were cold winters with January 2004 frigid!  December featured a relaxed pattern but a rather stormy period around the holidays in 2002.  The 2003 December storm was bigger but my recollection is the rest of the month was not so great.  We then had suppression for the heart of winter but you may have done ok south of the pike in CT.  NYC cleaned up in 2003-04.

The 2 storms in the first half of Dec 2003 totaled 37", more than half of the season's snowfall.  Only one event with more than 5" in Jan-April.  Jan '04 had 7 maxima between 1 and -8 but only 7.7" snow/0.57" precip.  The -7 max on the 14th was recorded at 9 PM on the 13th; the afternoon max was -11.

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think we'd be happy with anything at this point....nevermind the Euro solution of threatening to break November snowfall records that were set back in the November 26-27, 1898 storm.

Or November 22-23, 1943 in NNE.

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

True-and at $12 a pack hard to imagine how anyone affords it.

Yikes!  In the 1950s my mom could buy 4 cartons for that. 
(Unfortunately.  At age 55 after 40 years of 2-3 packs/day, she was diagnosed with emphysema.  She quit cold turkey but gradually lost lung function until passing at age 70.  Her 2 non-smoking sisters lived into their 90s.)

10 hours ago, weathafella said:

For this part of the world, this dry period has rivaled the drought of the early 60s that tamarack alludes to.  However, in my years of living in southern California, this is nothing.  One year when I was living there (1976-91) the city of LA went 7 months without a trace of rain.

The past 3 months might be drier than any 3-month period in the 1960s.  However, that earlier drought lasted 4 years.
NYC numbers:
1963 - 34.28"  5th lowest, only the 4.4" dump in early Nov avoided a new record.
1964 - 32.99"  Lowest (at the time) by 0.73", now 2nd
1965 - 26.09"   Four years later some VA sites had that much in 5 hours from the remains of Camille.
1966 - Jan-Aug 19.79", only 0.74" more than J-A '65, and considerably warmer (met summer 4.8 hotter).
Sept 21, 1966:  5.54"   Drought was over though we didn't know it until many months after.

GYX precip map this morning shows 1.5-2" for almost all their CWA.  Yesterday they were thinking 0.5-1".  We'll see.  We're heading to SNJ on 11/26, returning 12/3 or 4.  Might see flakes there before seeing any here.  

18 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

Interesting, seems like the cold was centered more towards NNE .. ORH put up departures of -3.8 / -9.5 / -3.2 for that stretch 

Fake cold.  We had 3 sunny and calm days after a 12.4" dump.  That storm was cold rain at ORH and the lows on 6-8 were 23/18/18 there, 1/-8/-8 here.

42 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

cold run of the GFS past D10 to start December .. would be quite a change from recent years 

The greatest negative departures here since Feb 2023 were Dec 6-8 last year (-13/-19/-14.  That said, I had to go back to 12/2018 to find more early Dec cold.

14 hours ago, dryslot said:

Sept-Nov, 3.46"

Got you beat by 0.09"     Only 0.44" over the past 5 weeks, however.

12 hours ago, kdxken said:

Off topic but does anyone know anything about Coyote behavior? All summer I've seen single coyotes or maybe a pair. Lately I've seen packs. Is this something they do in the winter?

Families, and there may be as many as 6 pups or more, though they usually get thinned out by fall.  Multi-family packs like wolves are uncommon for coyotes. 
Didn't happen this year, but the usual sequence here would be hearing the pups singing soprano in May then working down to a low alto by September.  

This morning was 20°+ milder than yesterday's 14.

10 hours ago, Jebman said:

How do you all do in cold neutral winters? You sure got the MOISTURE this year, you have gotten over 40 inches of rain so far in 2024.

But very little since late August - many wildfires in the Northeast above Mason-Dixon.

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think we'll ever see such a violent evisceration of snowpack again. Two monster cutters that featured thunder and wind damage destroying a 40"+ pack in many areas. I mean, if you are going to melt a top tier snowpack, may as well go out like that. 

1995-96 had 5 months, DEC-APR, with Jekyll-Hyde character.  Data from Gardiner, Maine:

Dates   Avg Temp  + or -   Precip   Snow
12/1-21       17.5       -5.4     3.99"    40.6"
1/1-16          8.3      -9.8      2.03"    27.5"
2/1-19       12.7       -6.3      1.17"      11.3"
3/1-11        17.5       -7.5       1.93"    24.5"
4/1-14       36.1       -3.5      2.44"   23.5"
Avg/Tot     17.8       -6.4     11.56"  127.4"   81 days

12/22-31   25.6      +5.4     0.20"     2.6"
1/17-31      25.6      +6.6     4.75"     4.6"
2/20-29    34.7      +11.1     3.85"     0.0"
3/12-31      34.8      +2.4     1.06"     2.0"
4/15-30     46.6      +1.9     4.72"     0.0"
Avg/Tot     34.2      +4.8   14.58"     7.6"   71 days

1995-96 produced 138.8", the most of our 13 winters in Gardiner and 30.4" more than #2 (92-93).  However, 95-96 ranks only 5th for SDDs thanks to all the thaws.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

pretty fat recovery today too.   big diurnal swing.   21 at 4 am and now 54 type rise at these home stations within a mile of me... but this spread matches kfit identically

zip wind ...even the sloped sun of solar min is offering some nape affect out there. 

From 14 to 50 here, maybe a 40-span?  More cloud than blue now, so probably not.

Low of 14 here, IZG 12 and BML 9.  A small cloud to our northwest, first one I've seen in 3 days.  (November vies with December for the cloudiest month here.)

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The whole tropical season is a massive and utter fail.  

Depends on how it's measured. 
By numbers of TCs/canes/majors, which came in below the forecast.
By impact, any season with a Helene and a Milton is high-end. 
(Reminds me of 1992, when the first named storm didn't come until August and the numbers were way low, but that #1 was Andrew.)

14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It will Be BN for a few days but a torch month is a lock. Top tier torch too.

Currently running +4.2 here, which would be 5th mildest of 27 should November finish there - top quartile.  After today the departure will be close to +3.6, for 7th mildest.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I still remember early in Septorcher when I made the post about SNE burning and will be on fire as the fall went on. People snickered and weenied but this was sniffed out months ago, Tamarack had a few posts about some fires  in Maine or NJ during a similar period in the 60’s/ 70’s. This is not going anywhere anytime soon 

Maine, late October 1947. 200,000 acres and 15 fatalities
New Jersey, late October into November 1963.  The 4" splash on 11/6-8 knocked things back a lot, and the month had another 4 before the 30th. 
(The really big fire than year came on April 20, a windy Saturday - nearly 200,000 acres in the Pine Barrens, and ~17 homes burned in NYC [Staten Island] by a forest fire.)

For folks like 'Fella and me, this is a significant but short-term drought.

2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Bottomed out at 26F

About the same at our frost pocket - must not have fully decoupled.  Low teens tonight?

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

Except for the Palm Eek had growing on Winni. He let it die a couple of years ago, because it was getting too big to winterize. 

A co-worker living several miles west from CAR had a banana plant growing in his greenhouse for 2 years, summering the thing outside.  It failed to blossom so was left outside going into the 2nd winter.  The lemon tree in the greenhouse was producing lots of fruit.