ensonerd1233e343

Yes it is highly likely we see convection in the far epac during winter provided it stays as warm there as 1997/1982 the real question is when we see that convection bc sst there rise throught the winter so by mar you actually dont need to high of a ssta to get convection If you look at olr ( which is a measurment of the amount of longwave radation escaping earth negative values indicate cold tall clouds bc those block olr and thus olr can be used as a measure for deep convection) in 1997 we didnt get it till nov/dec ( depends bc nov had most of the convection slightly n of the eq in the far epac but some was on the eq dec was more uniform to the eq) while in 1982 it didnt really happen til dec/ jan and even then its a weaker signal although still there likely weaker bc it was slightly less east based then 1997

The atmospheric response is more ridiculus imo

Um yea no seasonal models are bad the last 2 winters should be exhibit a, im as much of a weenie as the next guy but im not holding my breath next winter for sustained cold and snow ( here in the mid atl) although there is certainly an increased chance of a big storm w a mega juiced stj, but cold? highly unlikely maybe feb will be cold and thats it