njwx7

really need this energy to drop in sooner

Could the GFS score a coup on this one, maybe, but it really just is a woeful model. The GFS holding on to a solution for run after run only to cave to other guidance in the short term is almost always what occurs. The verification scores show everything you need to know: The Euro, CMC (can't believe I'm saying that) and the Ukmet consistently outperform the GFS. Again, could the GFS be correct in this case, sure, but overall it is just not a serious model.

The main cluster of 12z EPS members are east of the 00z run, however the mean is pretty similar thanks to this small cluster of western members which move extremely slowly. I don't have access to the panels but I wouldn't be surprised if there are probably a few big hits in there.

Long time lurker, first time poster. I think the writing is on the wall with this one, unfortunately. GFS vs ECMWF/EPS/Euro-AI/UKM does not bode well 9 times out of 10. Barring a major shift on the 12z euro, i think the only thing that keeps this threat alive is if we see increased support for the GFS solution on the EPS. If the EPS holds serve or even shifts east then I think a GFS solution is off the table. Regardless, this will be a close call and could easily still turn into an advisory-level event for some.