njwx7
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Everything posted by njwx7
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SREF continues to get more bullish. Crazy
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Upton's response (as of 2:15 AM) is to advertise the following for NYC: Low End: 1" Forecasted: 9" High End: 21" What's a 20" spread amongst friends?
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I saw someone mention this earlier, and I totally agree. If the mets predict 6-12 and we get 18-24, the general public won't really remember it. 6-12 is generally "enough" to get most people to avoid travel and change plans. However, if they predict 18-24 and we get 4, the public won't forget it. They will be unhappy that they adjusted their plans for a "minor" event and will call this a bust. It's a real tough spot to be in as a forecaster
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Agree. It has pretty consistently been between the GFS and Euro. The current 00z track is still great. What I'm not sure about, and maybe someone has the answer here, is how well it performs with QPF. My understanding is that the AI models run at a lower resolution and have a tendency to smooth things out. Assuming that is true, I would seriously consider track and rely on mesos to work out the QPF.
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03z 21z On a positive note, SREF mean has improved.
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This is a valid point. I think the problem is that we have been burnt so many times by betting against the euro. You would think that within 70 hours the euro would have a good handle on this. With that being said, euro has performed poorly lately. Regardless of final outcome, all models have performed poorly with this system. Euro has been atrocious with this, even if it ends up being correct in its current depiction.
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I don't envy the position of the NWS. Very interested to see what they do. Euro is clearly an eastern outlier but I don't seem them throwing out the euro suite in the same way that they would if it was the GFS depicting this solution.
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here is the "horrible" Euro AI
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define "good". At 500 mb it is almost in an identical location as GFS at hr 72. I would not weigh QPF output on the AI models heavily.
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970mb low at 40/70......
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CMC coming in more amped as well
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It's settled. Locking in the 18z NAM at 66 hours. Let's do this.
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It'll be breezy for sure.
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SREF looking good!
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Wherever this ultimately tracks, it's becoming clear that the precip cutoff on the NW side of this is going to be brutal.
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12z NAM very similar to GFS at 500mb...this run may explode shortly.
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wow - all except one sub 980
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Agree - think QPF on GFS was underdone
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In his defense I saw it floating around on twitter
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Yes it is. This is the real output
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This is a fake map
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Spoke too soon - Initially looked like it was lagging but it ended up digging deeper. good start to 00z!
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There is a little more separation on the northern stream compared to 18z. Not what we want to see
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While an improvement, based on 500mb, I don't think that it would have provided the solution that the majority of those here (myself included) are looking for. I wouldn't weigh the meso model outputs at all right now TBH. This is a synoptic question that is best resolved by the global models. 12z Sunday is a critical inflection point. if we can get that northern piece of energy to phase sooner (alla GFS) then game on.
