njwx7

The main cluster of 12z EPS members are east of the 00z run, however the mean is pretty similar thanks to this small cluster of western members which move extremely slowly. I don't have access to the panels but I wouldn't be surprised if there are probably a few big hits in there.

Long time lurker, first time poster. I think the writing is on the wall with this one, unfortunately. GFS vs ECMWF/EPS/Euro-AI/UKM does not bode well 9 times out of 10. Barring a major shift on the 12z euro, i think the only thing that keeps this threat alive is if we see increased support for the GFS solution on the EPS. If the EPS holds serve or even shifts east then I think a GFS solution is off the table. Regardless, this will be a close call and could easily still turn into an advisory-level event for some.