WxKnurd

Could hear the sleet mixing In just now when I took the dogs out.

9 minutes ago, LKN WX said:

Should work itself down your way soon, especially with the heavier returns finally moving in.  

That’s what I’ve bedn thinking, green returns are finally knocking on my doorstep and are just across the river

1 minute ago, LKN WX said:

Was at South Park all afternoon, all rain there but just got up to Denver and sleet is mixing in here.  Temp at 38.

Good to know, just to your south below Mountain Island Dam, been basically sprinkles, very light rain for maybe last 3 hours.  

Moisture has arrived here in NW Charlotte, getting sprinkles to start off.

Just now, Wow said:

NAM colder at surface but really gung ho on a 700mb warm nose this run.   HRRR says nope, however.

Colder look makes sense if you look at current conditions, the high pressure back around the Lakes is 1038, 850’s are good, 925 looking good.  

Looking at current conditions on SPC things are setting up nicely for CLT.  1038 high in IL, 0 degree  850 south of border, with -2 line cutting Mecklenburg in half, 0 degree line 925 sinking down towards the state line.

6 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Leaving for Blowing Rock in the am, considered going further south to Black Mountain but am really worried about pingers cutting back on totals.  Also considered Spruce Pine but the roads may be sketch coming back on Tuesday especially if there is a lot of sleet.

 

Spruce Pine could be do able, I know once you get to Burnsville Hwy 19 is  4 lane limited access all the way to 26. 

15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

SREF snow mean for CLT remained at about 4.5”

Looks like it actually ticked up about .4", from 4.21" and plumes done snowing at 15 compared to 4.61" and some plumes still snowing.  HKY went from 11.98" to 9.73" but again, more plumes showing it still showing it snowing.  

5 minutes ago, isohume said:

Aww, I think it looks rather pretty. Unfortunately it's part of WPC's suite of probabilistic forecasting, which only goes out 72 hrs. It's automated and we can't touch it or delete it. I'd say it needs some tweaking. 

Then that makes the other maps that were confusing us when compared with the current forecasted amount map make sense now, probably also automated via WPC suite.

4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

They're showing more for Salisbury than atop Mt. Mitchell. 

I'm sorry, but there is no on this earth that I am going to buy into that map right now.

Oh I agree, just pointing out that the expected map makes no sense when you factor in all the other product maps they put out with it.  And that’s the only reasoning I could think of, which makes sense when you look at the disco about QPF and sleet SW of Asheville.  Seems like their reasoning is banks on snow being rate driven given the thermal profile.

6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

What are they looking at? Euro, UK, FV3, CMC all show a foot and a half here. 

Just scrolled through their maps, the high end matches up with model output but then  when you look at expected and then scroll through the “% of x inches”, it makes no sense why they went with what they did.  only thing I can figure is they see this mainly a CAD region storm in regards to snow as the ice accumulation map is highest SW of Asheville.

Just now, SLAMSTORM22 said:

New to the forum... Is GSO Greensboro? 

Yes and INT is the code for Winston’s airport.

HKY mean for SREF plumes was right at 12”, CLT was touch over 4”.  Both had a total QPF a touch a few hundredths over 2”.  But the sref burned us last year even up to go time, plus it’s at the long-range time period of this short range model.

5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

It looks like the 850 low goes way south of us off the coast right? Isn't that in itself a good thing? 

Yes, you want the 850 Low to track to your south.

Just now, wncsnow said:

I can see some gulf coast convection robbing moisture with this setup but QPF doesn't look like an issue 

Could also aid moisture transport (not that it’s really needed in this setup) if you have a positive tilt to it.  But those things are a nowcast issue.

6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

now that is the kiss of death, will never forget when he popped in the jan 2017 thread and fired the warning shot.

The crusher of hopes and dreams lol.  These big storms are always hard to start and stay all snow for us, even growing up around Hickory you’d have some sleet and then a glaze of freezing rain to end.  My issue the past few storms at my place besides the sleet has been terrible dendrite  growth.  Everyone will be talking about big fat flakes and I’ll be getting hit with dime size or smaller.

Just now, DopplerWx said:

agree but soundings have improved over the past 6 runs or so. still expecting the nam to show that warm nose about 36hrs out once we are all nice and excited.

Phil’s Coefficient radarscope will be getting a workout by me for this one, like always these last few years.

7 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE?

Allan or Brandon does.  Basically for a HKY  blockbuster a Miller A track around CHS and up the coast is best, CLT was SAV or Jacksonville and riding just a bit further off coast.  If I remember correctly.

3 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

I'm looking at Highlands, NC.   Nice town and sits at 4,100 ft.   They should get smoked, closest spot to Atlanta in my opinion.   OF course subject to change

They’ll get smoked but that drive out 64 from 23 is gonna be treacherous once you hit the gorge and head up the mountain. You could go out to/come from  Sky Valley and have less curves but that road might not be plowed as soon as 64.

Just now, griteater said:

Final

Take it the bank, Mecklenburg minimum of “only” 12-15” is over my house while just 5 miles due west across the river gets you in 20”+ totals.  That’s an amazing clown map! Sounds like the H5 maps were tantalizing close to something even more special, if that’s actually possible.

1 minute ago, Amos83 said:

yep, many times the Davidson/Mooresville area would have 2x the amount of snow I'd get in Concord. Crazy how just a few miles can make such a difference.

Insult to injury is my mom sending me pictures from back home up in Northern Catawba County (always a good climo place for the county, tend to miss out on the Lee-side screw job that happens occasionally when compared just to the west in Hickory). I actually chased one December storm back in 2009 or 2010 I think, when my wife and I were still dating. Drove from rain in Noda to sleet on 85 over by the airport to all out heavy snow on 321 all the way from Dallas to my parents.  Wasn’t sitting in rain and missing out on that one.

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

I can remember last year when the difference in distance between my house and Wow's house was about 7 miles,give or take, and he ended up with more snow than I did in Davidson.

And you and grit had about 1.5 to 2 times what I had over by the Whitewater Center.  Warm nose has gotten me ever since I moved from Huntersville, first to Noda and now over on the river (much better location than Noda though and about as good as Huntersville, just seems the sleet line or a low dendritic growth area sets up on top of me).  Hopefully I’ll bring some of this cold Chicago airmass back home with me on Friday night/early Saturday morning.  Can a Tacoma tow dry cold air? 

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Winds:

from the NW (320 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.3 m/s) gusting to 46 MPH (40 knots; 20.6 m/s)   1:10 EDT obs

Thanks.  I knew it had to be close to 50 mph with some of those gusts. That one made it about white out with the rain and was constant for about 10-20 seconds.

Very strong gust now, will be interesting to see with the airport records.

Winds are mixing down here near KCLT. Legit 40+ just now