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Astoriaweather

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  1. Astoriaweather
    I am thinking 5 to 8 in NYC, but at this point I will be satisfied with that, especially if the sleet helps it form into a glacier afterwards. . I guess my one worry is that things just keep trending bad until game time and even 5 is not within reach in the urban, coastal core. Hope I am wrong.
  2. Astoriaweather
    I’m thinking 5 to 8 in the city, then a flip, is a good call
  3. Astoriaweather
    Some NYC area Mets are increasing totals for the city this morning. Others, like Tomer, are really down playing things and seem skeptical of even 6 inches in the city. https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2014682599302607146?s=20
  4. Astoriaweather
    If the GFS holds tonight, I won't worry about the NAM until this time tomorrow. Tomer on Twitter thinks its in the process of folding. But if it doesn't fold tonight, and instead decides to fold tomorrow, etc, or never does, it will be a pretty glaring and major error for the model and raise real questions about its relevancy going forward. https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014470490593886472?s=20
  5. Astoriaweather
    I am old enough to vaguely remember the Blizzard of 93. And even though that storm was pretty well modeled, considering the era, I honestly don't think anyone saw a map of likely snow accumulations until the day before the storm. If you did, it was something vague like "at least six inches expected"
  6. Astoriaweather
    It’s still 3 days away. It’s fine to give a range of possibilities, but considering the snow won’t start till early Sunday, this still could be either a 4 to 8 or 8 to 12 or 12 to 18 type deal for NYC.. Back in the 90s and early 2000s, TV forecasters almost never gave out estimates before 48 hours and usually only 24. Yes, modeling and science has gotten better. But we all know plenty of models can still make fairly large shifts within 72 hours. .
  7. Astoriaweather
    There was a storm in March 2017. Was supposed to be all snow. 15 to 20 inches was forecast. In Manhattan, about 6 inches fell quickly during the morning time and then it turned into a massive, pounding sleet storm that persisted well into the evening. It was a huge bust. But It then froze the next day. And, despite it being March with March Sun, the snow/ice was so packed that it stayed on the ground, even in the city, till late March.
  8. Astoriaweather
    NYC had a 17 inch snowfall in 2021 https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf
  9. Astoriaweather
    I wasn't living in NY then but in DC. But wasn't there a storm in January 2014 that many models suggested would be primarily snow but then at the end it transitioned into a major sleet storm for East Coast cities? Not saying it's likely in this set up, but I recall it was somewhat similar situation where you had a Low driving up into Western Pa.
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