PhilsFanDrew

Whitehall Twp (Egypt) - Roads are completely covered. Untreated bare surfaces look to have 1.5 inches of snow. Coming down pretty hard now.

It's nowcasting time, forget about model guidance now.

Agreed. I remember even in 2016 with Winter Storm Jonas. Euro was the first to latch on and stuck with the longer range models. GFS and others caved and then about 12-24 hours before all the longer range models had it backing off. NAM held it steady as a huge snow dump, pretty much had the deformation bands verbatim to where they actually setup which caused 3+ inch per hour rates and 24+ inches. While I don't expect the LV to get into 24-30+ inches, I think it's wild to start totals any less than double digits here. I like 15-20 inches for the LV with locally higher amounts.

I've seen enough, nothing for LV this weekend. Good luck to the SEPA/NJ/DE folks.

I'm more interested in the 18z Wed - 12z run Thursday to see if there is agreement or consensus in the models for setup and path. As of right now I'd say my confidence for a large scale area wide blockbuster is probably only at 15% right now but that is solely based on past runs and current ensemble members.

No we aren't. The piece of energy that is responsible for this storm signal hasn't even made landfall in the US so models are basically guessing at this point until it can sample it.

4:50 - Whitehall, PA - Back to heavy sleet, little to no flakes. Have a feeling its going to be like this back and forth until the system pulls away.

4:27 - Whitehall, PA - Snow trying to overtake the sleet, back to a true mix.

2:47PM Whitehall Twp - Back to mostly heavy sleet with the occasional fine flakes. Definitely seems like we are right on the battlezone.

2:20PM Whitehall Twp - Was nearly exclusively heavy sleet over the last hour. Flakes making their way back for more of a 50/50 mix.

Egypt, PA (Whitehall Twp) 1:20PM - Now heavy pingers with a little bit of snow mixed in.

Egypt, PA (Whitehall Twp) 12:47PM - Just starting to hear some sleet hitting the window. Mostly still snow for right now.

Whitehall Twsp, PA (Egypt) Just finished the first pass at the driveway with the Snowjoe, easily 7.5 inches and some areas more with drifting. Heavy snow.

6.75 inches Egypt, PA Whitehall Twsp as of 10:45AM

Let the dog out one last time 5 mins ago, no flakes as of yet in Egypt, PA.