While a very different setup, the trend for the storm around ~Jan 15 was west/north in quick succession, and the heaviest snows still ended up N/W of where most models had it in the Lakes.
Realistically, how far north can this come? Impressive trend for increasing heights and less confluence out ahead. 0z and 6z ECMWF track the 850mb low to the eastern Great Lakes before the coastal reflection takes over off of the ME coast.