nbweather

While trends aren't great this morning, it will be interesting to see how these multiple low scenarios end up working out, or if we can get a last minute consolidation that helps a northward trend.

True, my point was more related to the N/W extent of the precip with this.

Most of the ensemble members are pretty deep with this storm. QPF extent will be muted on ensemble means compared to what likely happens with this. I don't think it would take much to have a large storm that even impacts inland areas further N/W of what guidance currently shows.

That was a stronger coastal with more QPF in a shorter window. One of the reasons the NBM is high with 48hr accumulations for this event is because it maintains a SLR of 15:1 or higher for the event. Higher SLR's are certainly possible, especially with good lift in the DGZ, and a deep DGZ. But longer drawn out events where you apply a high SLR are more prone to a somewhat drastic difference in the snow depth at the end of the storm versus modeled snow amounts with the SLR applied.

Having a dynamic SLR is great. I find it can still be a little high with cold environments, especially if lacking deep lift. There is also the thing with high ratio snows where compaction begin quite quickly as amounts increase. The resulting 6hr, 12hr, end of storm measurements, etc. can be quite different in these setups.

DESI also offers the hourly dynamic snow to liquid ratio that is used in the NBM as a field.

I meant Gulf of Maine in this case.

ECMWF-EPS and EPS-AIFS ensembles have had some a signal for a while now around the end of the month. Some pretty member MSLP's in the GOM into Eastern Canada. Lets hope.

While a very different setup, the trend for the storm around ~Jan 15 was west/north in quick succession, and the heaviest snows still ended up N/W of where most models had it in the Lakes.

Realistically, how far north can this come? Impressive trend for increasing heights and less confluence out ahead. 0z and 6z ECMWF track the 850mb low to the eastern Great Lakes before the coastal reflection takes over off of the ME coast.