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KChuck

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    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

     That's what the latest CFS thinks lol. After the extremely cold NE shot this weekend, it has a break for 12 days before 3 more extreme airmasses plunge down between 2/17 and 2/28 in various parts of the US. 

     We know any cold extended portion of a CFS run is pretty much pure entertainment. But this does remind me that we have very little idea about how the last half of Feb will be. After all, Feb 15th is still 2 days beyond the end of the EPS, which itself is very unreliable. And keep in mind what I said about knuckleballs.

     As we get into mid Feb, that's when we may have an MJO move back to inside the COD and away from the MC. Also, if we are to get a SSW induced -AO/SE cooling, it could easily start then based on analogs.

     Regarding the very strongest Arctic plunges deep into the SE in Feb, most have actually occurred during either La Niña or cold neutral despite the relative rarity of cold Niña Febs. A good number of these were during 2/8-2/17 although they have occurred as late as 3/7!

     Regarding major snow/sleet in the SE, climo is still relatively favorable through the first few days of March. In RDU, the peak day is  March 2nd! ATL has had several major winter storms in the first few days of March. Even way down here where big winter storms are very rare, two were between 2/25 and 3/4 and there have also been several non-major wintry events within that period!

     Just some food for thought.
     

     

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    • Haha 1

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

    Thank goodness! Saw 2 days of dry weather on the forecast and started to get concerned it was going to become a trend. 

    That's like the old Bill Cosby joke about the people in Seattle back in the day joking about how often it rained there. When asked if they liked sunny days they said "NO!".  When asked why they answered "Because they dry up the sinuses."

     

     

     

    • Haha 3

    Hurricane Ian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

    Power outages will likely be severe today.  Generally speaking, there are so many dead trees around my area in the triad, mostly diseased pines and lightning strikes, that I expect quite a few of those will find their way to a power line.  Ian is certainly cementing his legacy.

    I sure hope you're wrong about our area. Wife is on the tail end of her 2nd round of COVID. 

    Hurricane Ian

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 hours ago, gman said:

    Okay folks. I am throwing in the towel for the Upstate of S.C. I don’t see us getting any rain from this storm. Hope I am wrong. 

    And this folks is what is known as the kiss of death. Upstate is about to get hammered!

     :facepalm:

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

    Most cane models only worry about going out 3 days for details. That's why past 3 days is hatched in the maps. Do you follow the 348 hour GFS model to plan your picnics and vacations? :sizzle:

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

    I assume the FSU Super Ensemble is no more?  It was a model that 'learned' from past biases shown in various models and then weighted the models that performed the best highest is creating the ensemble.  I get the impression the TVCN is just an ensemble.  I could be wrong.

    I doubt that an ensemble that learns from past biases is valuable anymore when the statisticians are constantly tweaking the models and their biases change

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

    No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real??  
     

    So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
     

    Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

    I believe that he was referring to the media and not the storms

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Ian

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, twister4999 said:

    Agreed. And perhaps an unpopular opinion, but I don’t believe this was some of their better work. Sure, some of their early forecasts were spot on, but after that there were major shifts. I guess I’m just not tooting their horn as much as others. Did the best they could of course, but yeah this wasn’t what I would call great forecast verification. Their forecasts probably lead to people being put in a rough spot after evacuating south from Tampa ultimately putting themselves in the strike zone. Apologies if this belongs in the banter thread. 

    I think that the NHC is between a rock and a hard place forecasting canes coming up the Florida coast. Kind of reminds me of NOAA mets trying to forecast snowstorms coming across the mountains into North Carolina. You never know which way they will bounce kind of like a pin ball machine. There's a big difference between dealing with a snowstorm vs a cat 4-5 hurricane. There were a lot of timing variables with Ian as far as that front coming down from the north not to mention land interactions. And no one, not even the blog experts, forecasted Ian strengthening the way it did once past Cuba. Once that occurred all of the dynamics surrounding Ian changed dramatically putting the NHC into doing their best to save lives and not spread needless fear. Overall, I think that they did a good job with what they had to deal with.  

    • Like 1
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