KChuck

16 hours ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Pour me something tall and strong...

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It may very well based on the extended models, non-east based El Niño climo, and the MJO. If not, don’t give up on Magnificent March. One year Amazing April even did it! Plus there are the couple of opportunities in the middle of Jumping January next week for at least something modest. It is still very early and Feb is looking promising. Even Eric Webb is excited about Feb.

1 hour ago, Sw NC weather said:

Are we allowed to post WB images on here?

I asked buckeyefan1 that question a month or two ago (maybe more). She answered yes. Their images are showing up all over the place and there has been no complaints from WB, so until something changes, she has no problem with the posting of WB images

4 hours ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Rainy then cold then rainy January.

Anyone know of a snow dance?

53 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For what it’s worth the GFS/GEFS just want to keep reloading cold past mid month 

Reminds me of trying to start your lawn equipment in the spring when you've failed to do the winter maintenance. You can get the engine to cough and spew but it just won't catch. That's what we're dealing with here. 

3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I do too!!   

Although I will never turn down mood flakes or a car topper either 

I'm with ya bro. Us beggars can't be choosers as my mom always said. 

30 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

model guidances suggests they don`t know what the heck is going to happen

News flash

15 hours ago, CentralNC said:

Just remember in this chaotic flow, don't trust any model outside of 7 days.  Heck maybe even 5 days.

100% full proof weather model

3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

I got you guys.  Headed to Mt Rushmore for a project on the 21st.  High temps there starting next week in the single digits.  I'll drag that cold pool right on home with me on the 24th for a Burger Boom kind of system.  Its coming, it has to be coming.  That is an enormous dome of sub zero temps stacking up in the midwest.  

We appreciate your sacrifice for us! 

35 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Sorry but, throwing in the towel first week of January during an El Niño is crazy. 80% of NC winter storms in Niño years happen after Jan 8th. 50% still after Feb 5th. We are just now beginning to move into a period where our most favorable climo can be seen on long range modeling, and while everything is not perfect there's more going for us than agaisnt us. You may well end up right, but this is the south no snow is always the best bet.

1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Genuinely jealous of people who didn't fall into the trap of this hobby. Weather models are basically crack from what I can tell. Everytime I try to tell myself to just stop looking, I find myself waking up at 2am just to sneak a peak at the Euro lol

Ditto on checking the weather sites. Worse for me. I lived outside of Buffalo near the present stadium in years 1963-1969. There were times the only way that we could get out of the house to shovel ourselves out was to open the garage door straight up! I think that I'm starting to have major spells of delirium believing the forecasts! 

21 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

We are just now beginning to move into a period where our most favorable climo can be seen on long range modeling.

It's not the long range that we are having trouble with. Those have produced, what, three feet of snow for us already. It's the short range and now casts that are disturbing! 

On 1/3/2024 at 2:12 PM, strongwxnc said:

Going back to my old rule of thumb of, when he shows 6 hours out I'll bite. 

I'm starting to lean towards adopting my wife's rule. When I stick my head out the door and see it snowing I'll bite! 

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This should allow our trough to surge east in 10-14 days, opening the door for our next Eastern US snow opportunity.

Another opportunity 10-14 days out. Whopee! The heck with opportunities...I want some ACTION 10-14 hours out! 

A good question is how come the models keep teasing us with winter weather chances 10+ days out and loose them when we get under 5 days? We have to seriously consider asking the question if the models have been programmed by snow weenies instead of scientific based meteorologists. 

19 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I love shiny tree tops  

That's over my head. Hopefully we keep it there and off power lines and roads! 

If I was to do a forecast based on birds hitting our bird feeders today, I'd be going out for bread and milk! 

3 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

About a half inch or so here so far and 20° currently.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

Great picture of snow flakes!!! 

How SE people seem to choose which model run would give us the most accurate weather prediction with the best chance of snow. 

5 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

The long range always looks good until it actually happens.

43 minutes ago, eduggs said:

All we can reasonably see out into the weather future is about 10 days

10 days you say? I'd be happy if we'd be able to hit 5 days out on snow events! 

On 12/9/2023 at 5:47 PM, BooneWX said:

Me looking at the 3k NAM with 100% belief in it snowing after never scoring in my life on an anafrontal system 

Originally posted by Prince Frederick Wx in the MA thread in their aptly named Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition... 

Thank you for calling the newly launched AmWx Hotline of Hope, providing support for delusional weenies at an affordable price. Please select from one of the following options; or, stay on the line to hear recordings of Joe Bastardi’s winter forecasts.

-To hear about SSW events, please press “1”

-Siberian snowcover, please press “2”

-MJO mumbojumbo, please press “3”

-Earth’s magnetic poles reversing, please press “4”

-To hear about how a giant asteroid impact would lead to additional snowfall in your backyard, please press “5”. Note that this option requires an additional fee.