Toronto4

I’d guess close to 2” has accumulated on grassy areas here in downtown Toronto with the main roads just mainly wet. The latest 00z HRRR has an additional 6” of snow by tomorrow morning.

The 00z UKMET increased snowfall for the GTA and the 03z RAP goes bonkers like the 00z HRRR. It’ll be interesting to see what transpires tomorrow.

Looks like we’ll get an extra inch or so this morning from this surprise band that is moving through the GTA.

Before I went to bed last night, I had a strong feeling this 1st wave was going to underperform from radar returns. This is reminding me of the event back on December 1-2. The first part was a bust as most of the precip fell as sleet and we only got an inch of snow (4-6” was forecast). However, the 2nd part of the event (snow coming from the east from the developing secondary low) later that evening into Monday morning over performed with 3-4”.

Good call and actually I’m more intrigued to see if the follow up wave on Friday can deliver a surprise. That one has most of the heaviest snow in western NY, but the GTA is on the western edge.

18z GFS was an improvement over the 12z run and all of the 18z GEFS ensemble members show snowfall for the Golden Horseshoe. Some of them show significant snowfall, similar to the 12z UKMET (saw snowfall map posted in the Upstate NY subforum).

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/7cde42424525268bfe98328ed2d8f162/acc-total-precipitation/20200127-0000z.html This link from weather.us shows the total QPF from today’s 12z UKMET (today to Sunday).

It would take a miracle for that scenario to happen. So many moving parts and everything would have to line up perfectly. Best case scenario would a modest event of 2-4” of wet snow.

Reading the NE subforum, this upcoming event has similarities to the December 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm gave Toronto around 12” of heavy wet snow (more fell points east). Temperatures throughout the storm hovered around 32-33F.

I’ll be interesting if there’ll be an extra nudge south with this as we get closer. Currently the GTA is on the southern edge of the steady snowfall.

It looks like the High across northern Ontario is stronger and moves in at the right time to filter low level cold air across our area.

Pretty nice surprise snowfall overnight. So many moving parts with this system and it created model chaos in the days leading up and on the day of it (warm air aloft and timing of transfer of primary low to coastal low). Hope you and the rest of the Toronto crew are doing well (snowstormcanuck, Ottawa Blizzard, mississaugasnow, blizzardof96, Torontonian, etc). Hoping for a decent winter season for the GTA and southern Ontario. Awesome start to winter in November and I have a feeling it's going to be a good one.

That band was super intense. As of 10am, Pearson Airport (YYZ) has reported 3” (8 cm) of snow.

Snowfall warning issued by Environment Canada for the Golden Horseshoe region (Toronto-Hamilton-Niagara) for 6” of snow tomorrow. Some spots could get up to 8”.

Based on the latest short range guidance and radar, I’m going for 2-3” for the Toronto area. The dry air to the north will prevent amounts from getting over 4”.

Mixture of freezing rain and ice pellets/sleet in downtown Toronto. Indications are that this will change to snow shortly.

Around that time, give or take an hour.

Not sure it it’s accurate, but the 21z RAP has 4-5” of snow for our area later this evening. Other models are in the 2-3” range. Temperatures will be marginal, but there are signs of strong dynamic cooling.

The strong push of warm air aloft from the south was a big factor in the lower than forecasted totals. Hopefully we can make it up somewhat with the snow this evening.

Hard to tell with the drifting, but I’d estimate around 4” has fallen so far in Toronto. Latest short range models are indicating another round of snow this evening with 2” possible.

Around 9.5” (24 cm) of snow at YYZ as of 11 pm and more is yet to come. Snow should taper off around 2 to 3 am.

King City radar is showing an intense line of heavy snow just to the west of Toronto. Latest HRRR indicates snow will last until around 3am or so.

For those in the Greater Toronto Area, the latest short range models (18z NAM, 3k NAM, etc) are showing around 2-4" tonight.

This afternoon and mid to late evening into the overnight hours.

Latest short range guidance (HRRR, 12 NAM) showing tonight’s deformation zone setting up further NW than originally forecast and as a result it keeps the snow longer in the Toronto area. Looking like 4-6” is possible. Higher amounts can’t be ruled out.