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TalcottWx

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Everything posted by TalcottWx

  1. There's a couple interesting cells out west but it's a total meh
  2. Mesoscale Discussion 1827 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...Hudson Valley into southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 211955Z - 212130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop and intensify across the region through 5-7 PM EDT, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps at least some continuing risk for a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...The initial convective band has largely dissipated, but widely scattered, generally discrete vigorous thunderstorms have developed and persisted. This includes one storm which still could take on an increasing supercell structure as it tracks near/northwest of Providence RI during the next hour or so. Convection north of Albany appears to be gradually growing upscale, with potential to produce a swath of damaging winds becoming more apparent. Further intensification and organization appears possible, as it tracks eastward along an effective warm frontal zone near/north of the Massachusetts/Vermont and New Hampshire border area through 21-23Z. Additional new thunderstorm development is ongoing within surface troughing, near/east of the Catskills and Poconos. In the presence of moderate instability and shear, this activity is expected to intensify further and gradually pose increasing potential for strong surface gusts across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England and Long Island. ..Kerr.. 08/21/2019
  3. This severe day has bombed. On to tomorrow. Maybe we can complete the trifecta of failure.
  4. That cell west of Ginx merged, is now an absolute monster. One of the most notable cells of the year. If it can get its' act together it'll produce a tor. Ginx might have a good view from Moosup.
  5. That's the new phrase because we're always getting f*cked in terms of severe
  6. Was just thinking about that line over NY State. Not seeing much to keep it going elevated to the coast. Crappy lapse rates, actually looks like warming heights on meso anal?
  7. Telling ya... Watch that Willimantic cell. I think it's going to merge with the cell lifting north and become a monster.
  8. We're going to get split like the other day I think. It looks like the CT cell will go south of BOS to RI imo.... Unless something major changes in its' motion
  9. That cell west of Willimantic CT should have a tor too imo
  10. Definitely a TOR in NY. Tight rotation
  11. I'm thinking svr very isolated and a bust for most of region
  12. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Far southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southeast New York Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify particularly across far eastern New York and southern New England, near and south of a warm front that will continue to spread slowly northward. Some supercells with a hail/tornado risk aside from damaging winds are most probable across southern New England, with damaging winds otherwise expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Poughkeepsie NY to 40 miles east of Boston MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer
  13. Lightning north of Woonsocket, so we'll probably see that cell intensify
  14. Taking a look at it... Not sure how to feel about it yet. That one dominant cell near hartford has my eye, as everything should gradually lift NE in terms of storm motion. The cells over RI appear to be more of a threat to metrowest and SE NH. Certainly a spin up threat if they strengthen. We'll see. I'm just hoping for a good show. Nothing severe or crazy.
  15. The winds are unimpressive aloft. Definite rotation.
  16. It'll be a close call along and south of the Pike. I'm watching that cell over CT. Peeps should hope it grows and pops more cells around it. The stronger cells will head east, weaker cells will lift north. So we need something signicifantly strong to pump to the west for anything to hit here. This is why rt 2 into S NH is favored
  17. I am changing my screenname on here soon. Moving from Southie to Dorchester... Taking all suggestions Gentrification_Wx?
  18. Rinse wash repeat until we are nailed into our coffins
  19. They sure have. Every single one of them.
  20. That's the best version of scooter imo
  21. This is the best Patriots defense since the mid 2000's. Probably the best RB core in the league. Best QB in the league. Underrated WR core of Gordon, Thomas, Edelman, Harry, Meyers, Dorsett, Berrios.... Best fullback in football. Best coach in football. Best special teams in football. Best OL in Football. Repeat SB champs here they come.
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