Mesoscale Discussion 1827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
Areas affected...Hudson Valley into southern New England
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609...
Valid 211955Z - 212130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609
continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop and
intensify across the region through 5-7 PM EDT, posing a risk for
damaging wind gusts, and perhaps at least some continuing risk for a
tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...The initial convective band has largely dissipated, but
widely scattered, generally discrete vigorous thunderstorms have
developed and persisted. This includes one storm which still could
take on an increasing supercell structure as it tracks
near/northwest of Providence RI during the next hour or so.
Convection north of Albany appears to be gradually growing upscale,
with potential to produce a swath of damaging winds becoming more
apparent. Further intensification and organization appears
possible, as it tracks eastward along an effective warm frontal zone
near/north of the Massachusetts/Vermont and New Hampshire border
area through 21-23Z.
Additional new thunderstorm development is ongoing within surface
troughing, near/east of the Catskills and Poconos. In the presence
of moderate instability and shear, this activity is expected to
intensify further and gradually pose increasing potential for strong
surface gusts across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New
England and Long Island.
..Kerr.. 08/21/2019