TalcottWx

I also think that ukie is an outlier. I'd be looking between Montauk and Barnstable right now.

I think that gfs run might be an outlier

Weenie central in here

Nhc tracks it over chatham

Cat 1 is a lock. I wonder if he can run at cat 2?

I figured it might be good to warn people reading this thread

Tornado warning Worcester

Massive cicadas on my windows this am. Anyone else have some? I've never even laid eyes on cicadas in Boston.

I'm worried. All of this rain. And now a hurricane?

I guess If I had to guess it would be cape cod

I'm bored feed me model runs

Yup but I think Steve would say the same thing

Henri 1985

Storm is definitely strengthening per satellite.

Wouldn't that be a treat. I'll be locked in the basement studio of 7 finding excuses to go look outside.

Honestly the most interesting upcoming 24 hours of tropical tracking in SNE for quite some time coming up. Tracking intensity of this is going to be fascinating.

That's a massive forecast cone. uncertainty is the word of the day.

The National Hurricane Center at 5pm appears to have this tracking over the Cape. Wow.

I'm focused on two things. I feel like the long fetch and onshore flooding etc is a given. The track has a solid consensus at least on approach. The real question marks that remain IMO: 1. Intensity. Slow approach. Yeah, it could really intensify in the next day or two before impacting us. I don't see how it doesn't weaken on approach. It would be unprecedented to have some slow moving behemoth of a storm directly impact SNE from this direction. Does this have some kind of Sandy impact where it's not taken seriously because it becomes extra tropical before landfall? There's just so much unknown in terms of intensity right now. 2. The hook. What the hell happens with this thing once it gets pushed to shore? For all we know, it could be slower in movement and actually get slingshot south of SNE with worst impacts on the Mid Atlantic. To me somewhere in the middle is the focus right now. I'd be decently concerned for anyone with maritime interests In Narragansett Bay or Long Island Sound. I am already thinking my day off might be spent traveling to and from the cape to take outdoor items inside. Channel 25 Mike L just had a track of a cyclone over the Cape on his broadcast.

There's simply no way you can consider the euro anything else besides an outlier. It's literally one against the world. It's going to fold.

I'm beginning to buy in to a close shave. Too much consensus to ignore. But I still very much think this could not even make landfall.

Great stuff

I'm wary of rooting on any trop cyclone. Be careful what you wish for

It's easily explained. An excuse to count out a run the weenie doesn't like.

Moving too slow to be anything over a cat 1 I would guess.