WeatherGeek2025

i guess the only way to find out is do hourly measurements

0z nam vs 18z europe gfs and euro ai same timeframe

yeah what happened to Alberta clippers seems like so long we haven't had one. By the way guys, do youl know if NAM will have the new Recon information or the other 0z runs for that matter injected into their outputs?

Don, you're the statistics man, do you happen to know ? what type of storms were they and what type of airmass (temps) we had during the storms?

let's ask some mets? is it possible to get 20:1 in a overrunning system in the beginning and half way if the system while temperatures are way below freezing? @forkyfork @SBUWX23i could be wrong i was just thinking this would be a good time to get those ratios because it's not windy, and it's very cold aloft and at the surface!

hey John I did look at the Euro AI model and they were all below 0 celsius which to me shows all snow. The low doesn't cut or transfer it just rides the baroclinic pressure gradient which is way south of us.

because the low isn't particularly strong what so ever, but the high pressure is very potent. The low pressure though a big system isn't strong to push that arctic dome of air out in time, by the time it does the low pressure is outta here that's why it doesn't become a true coastal. To me as it stands and of course that could change is a tone of overrunning with really high ratios because you've got a tone of moisture running into a brick wall, and once it saturates it will snow like crazy and the rates could be potentially even 20:1! It won't particularly be windy either with temperatures way below freezing, it will stick and be very sandy snow. Look for the smallest sized flakes come Sunday and Sunday night, as the low moves out offshore, the flakes could become bigger and the ratios will actually fall!

no i swear it's not that, it makes the most sense. Also it's all snow for Central Park

it was the GFS that had it going wide right! Nam and Euro had us at 30 inch forecast

fold to euro ai, plus 30% more qpf and higher ratios than 10:1 say 14:1 to 16:1 and you have the exact solution for your backyard!

go with euro ai that's the best model

my snowmap may be conservative for upstate

that's the better model, euro ai is the best though

yeah im scared a little but hoping gfs and euro ai hold serve i'd be happy with it

GFS rolling.... please hold serve

next it's going to be congrats north pole

i'm going with euro ai

euro AI is the best model of all! follow that and it'll lead you to the real solution in my opinion

no i look at icon for one specific reason 2m temps... that's the only thing that it could be useful. it is the worst model of all

Yes if Euro AI follows suit than it'll be very concerning if you want snow! GFS flip flops the best model now is euro ai in my opinion!

Icon is literally the crappiest model it's like looking at the old Cras

I definitely understand, Parts of Long Island could flip to sleet unfortunately, even NYC. I am mostly basing my forecasting off GFS and especially Euro AI. plenty of time still

i was just pointing out what the model depicted

not if the precip comes in like a wall like most models are depicting.

look at this map it shows 850's below freezing that shows snow all around south of long island and nyc could be sleet but nyc and north is all snow on the euro. its a great run!