monadnocks
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Posts posted by monadnocks
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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:
The other thing with SIRI and some Satellite stocks, Cathy wood the manager of ARK funds...is opening a new ARKX ETF this quarter. ARKX is Space ETF....if SIRI is incorporated into that space ETF or really any stock that is, it should rise quite nicely. Her funds attract the most money (mulit billions) within weeks of launching them. She has the "hot hand" right now and when that money flows into ARKX ETF any stock that makes up it's holdings should rise quite nicely.
SPCE was one that already moved due to that belief it will be added.
NPA is another that is at a nice entry price right now it's a SPAC that is taking a very innovative space company and satellite company public and is a candidate for ARKX ETF inclusion.
ARKX is something I've been interested in as soon as I read about its filing.
I'm not sure about new Fidelity customers but my experience with ETFs hasn't been that I needed to wait until the cash actually landed in my account.
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20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:
Christmas in the dark. How festive
Yes, the well known holiday sounds of generators running throughout the neighborhood.
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2" here and almost 15 degrees.
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14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:
They just plowed my driveway. I have no idea where they will put the snow come March. Huge piles already. I have about a quarter mile of driveway here.
Our plow guy also a construction business. If the piles get too high and we can’t see traffic or they’re just getting big near the house, he’ll come with the bucket loader and push everything back. Maybe you’ll need something similar.
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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:
Power outages minor so far...
We’ve been out for about an hour.
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11 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:
From my blog around noon. I should probably find a topographical map so I actually know where the hills are.
https://nhfg.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=9c6fd9ba477d40ed9bcf49a6a2e7dfc4 - NH Fish and Game topo map
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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:
Euro hit ASH area much harder than GFS
Flips us by noon
I spy a jack from Ashburnham to Miller state park on that map with tons of spots doing very well With similar amounts to Phin
And it's all about small details for the highest amounts. What side of the hill / mountain are you on? Top of the hill or bottom? I won't get the highest, being on the north side and at the bottom but it should be interesting. I'm hoping it's not 8 inches of concrete though...
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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:
Who has more COVID exposure: teachers or TSA airport screeners?
Protecting teachers by closing down schools (even it screws the children) seems to enjoy more support than does the idea of shutting down the airports to protect the TSA screeners. Interesting.
If you think of it in terms of the three C's: close, crowded and continuous, the TSA people are probably at less risk than other professions. I think there's so much variation on what schools are doing that it's not an easy answer.
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I can tell you that when I went to Nashua about a week and a half ago, social distancing was pretty much a pipe dream in stores. When people were waiting in line, the carts enforced some spacing but other than that, it was business as normal but with masks. And I do understand, the viral load that I'd probably get from the guy who just has to pick out cheese just when I am is probably super small. As a marker for a "everything is normal but you have to wear a mask" thought pattern, I think it's probably about right. There's an old saw about economic downturns: If you lose your job, it's a recession. If I lose my job, it's a depression. And at this point, I suspect that there's a lot of people who are just not personally seeing it and so are feeling like it's not a big deal.
And yes, I think that we're going to see some eye opening case numbers in December. The CDC advising people not to travel for Thanksgiving now is a late to the party. People have already made their plans.
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We're having just our household for Thanksgiving. My siblings are either working with the elderly in a hospital or already have several of the high risk factors for getting a bad case. The medical professional also has a child in private school which has strict guidelines about school approved activities. The other people who might have come over are a group of young 20-somethings who live in the city and, I'm going to assume, have a social life still. We're not in the coldest part of New England but the 20-somethings aren't going to be excited to drive out to the boonies and be cold. We opted to go for the virtual meet-up with everyone.
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One of the things that I don't see being discussed is the multiplier effect that's happening with COVID-19 in terms of economic impact v. personal impact.
As an example, I live in the Monadnock region of NH and there's a nonprofit that was hit pretty hard by the economic impact - Crotched Mountain Rehab. The foundation that manages it had dealt with a variety of subpar financial events before COVID-19 hit so this was just another thing in the pipeline. It's hard to ensure personal safety for residents and staff when, due to a variety of disabilities, clients may not be able to comply with COVID-19 requirements. The foundation decided this summer to close the school because of the financial drain. That led to layoffs, area businesses saw less income (the store, storage place, etc.) and so on. Another organization, Gersh Academy, is in the process of buying the Greenfield campus and is currently managing it. They're accepting applications but it will probably be quite some time before it's fully operational.
I believe that Crotched went above and beyond what the state was requiring from them in an effort to keep everyone safe. It wasn't a matter of whether or not a sick person became sick with something else or if an old person died. It was an exogenous event that wasn't scoped within their plans. The economic impact was independent of government regulations in this case. And the area is lucky that the New York based founder is so happy with buying the school that he's moving his family to New Hampshire so I expect that the school will thrive with that level of oversight.
The crux of the problem lays with the analysis that we are all called to make - how to spread the risk, pay for the costs (immediate, implied, societal and long term debt with its resulting economic impacts) and allocate resources. It's not often that everyone is drawn into an ongoing conversation to assess their actions with these types of time frames and probably most people don't think about these types of forces / actions with that type of scoping. (For those of you who agree with MMT and federal debt, I disagree.) There are similar problems that we all address, indirectly or directly, but with longer timespans. SARS-CoV-2 created an opportunity for us to look at our actions and see the ripple effects in close to real time.
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2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:5 hours ago, PhineasC said:Flying was already a huge hassle before. I can only imagine how terrible it is right now. I'd need to have a really good reason to get on an airplane these days.
Wife's a flight attendant. Planes are the cleanest they've ever been. Study compared risk of covid between planes, subway, being in a car and others. Planes had the least risk and was extremely low.
We were supposed to go to a conference this summer in Vegas, which was cancelled. Now we have airfare just waiting for us to use. And realistically, there's just not a ton of places that I can see planning a trip to visit and being able to count on it being open, dining outside, etc. It's not so much the flying but the "Where?" question. If we were going to see someone, that would be one thing. All the relatives in the flying distances live in states with way, way worse COVID rates so that's a big "No thank you" now.
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3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:6 minutes ago, monadnocks said:We has a similar landscape problem with our garage when we built it about 20 years ago. Did you already have a compactor go over it? I hope so.
I'd be mindful over time with placing heavier than usual items on the downhill side. We needed to store some particularly heavy items in the garage for about 6-8 months one year and sadly choose the downhill side. After they were all cleared out, we saw the cracks that had formed. This lead to predictable issues and maintenance.There was no compacting done with a compacter other than driving the dozer over after a load of fill was dropped off and spread, so this probably qualifies as compacting to some extent. Garage will be 14x24'. It'm pretty sure that we weren't dealing with any steeper of a grade on the far side.
Ours is a two car garage with a good sized upper story so bigger than yours. We definitely had the compactor equipment going over it for quite a while - I remember the racket that it made.
Consider either talking to the Extension Service or your local feed store for quick sprouting cover mixes. You're close to the ocean and depending on the elevation / exposure, you might be able to get something to grow. That also looks like pretty poor soil which will make it more of challenge.
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24 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
Getting a prefab garage on Friday. Had to bring in a lot of fill for the garage to build up the land to level. I'm a bit concerned about the back side and sides where heavy rain could cause significant washout. Not sure what could be done to prevent that. We will seed some grass around sides of garage in Spring, but don't think seed would take hold on the slope sections of fill
We has a similar landscape problem with our garage when we built it about 20 years ago. Did you already have a compactor go over it? I hope so.
I'd be mindful over time with placing heavier than usual items on the downhill side. We needed to store some particularly heavy items in the garage for about 6-8 months one year and sadly choose the downhill side. After they were all cleared out, we saw the cracks that had formed. This lead to predictable issues and maintenance.
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I had a conversation this evening with a friend who was absolutely adamant that not only did Hollis, NH get more snow that the Temple / Greenfield / Francestown area in NH but because Teslas could drive in Hollis snow, they were superior to other vehicles. (We started talking about the new electric pickups that are coming out.) I took a brief look at CoCoRaHs data but it didn't seem to have stations in right area and I know I'd get skewed data. Greenville, for instance, almost always gets less snow than the Monadnock towns I mentioned.
I know the Tesla v other vehicles isn't an important argument but it did get me thinking about data granularity. Is there another site with reliable snowfall data?
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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:
Just making one post ...Not to obsess, but has anyone taken a little peak over in Europe at the Rate of daily Covid cases over the last 3-4 weeks. Italy is up 7x (700%) France, Spain and UK all up 250% or greater in last 3 weeks. I would guess they may foreshadow us to a degree (hopefully a lesser one)
And just worth noting as testing has increased, if you were wondering if they were catching mostly mild cases that were hidden...Italian Covid Hospitalization was up 55% in ONE week 0ct 11-18 (last Hospitalization data was released on 18'th) and it's accepted knowledge that Hospitalizations lag new cases by a good 10 days ...I would not be shocked to see their hospital system have De Ja Vu before Thanksgiving.
I've been thinking about it a lot too. I suspect that Thanksgiving is either going to look a lot different this year or we'll really be looking at a spike mid-December. We've had Thanksgivings with enough snow to cut our power and some that have been relatively mild. I suspect if we're going to host people this year it will be something on the order of "If the weather's at all decent..."
Our school district has already decided that from Thanksgiving week through MLK day, the schools will be fully remote. I imagine it will be helpful in a number of ways. I've heard that the high school alone is going through a tremendous amount of heating oil with having the windows open. It's one thing to think about cooler weather next week in terms of yard work. When you think about heating all the schools with open windows, it makes me wonder how it's all going to get paid for.
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3 hours ago, Lava Rock said:
One reason I asked is because we have a sizable chunk of money that we are going to invest in some ETFs. My wife lately has this bad feeling about the market and how we're going to lose a bunch of our current investments like 401k. Trump getting covid doesn't help. I look it at it as a buying opportunity. My wife thinks we should wait a little while longer (after the election) before pulling trigger on ETFs. I told her it's best not to try and time the market, but just get in now, especially with longer term investments.
Assuming you've done your research about what you think the ETFs will do, why not put in some limit orders and then re-evaluate as news flows? At least that way, you'll get the sale prices you want. You could possibly divide the money between different scenarios to make both of you at least OK with the purchases. For what it's worth, Fidelity put up a bunch of resources related to the election: https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/2020-presidential-election I don't always agree with Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity but I intermittently read his analysis / tweets. I think some of his content is behind the login / password wall there but a lot of it is duplicated on Twitter.
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Went for walk / hike in our area today and had some good light. There's not a lot of color here other than the maples in the swamp and even then it's not great.
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We picked so much today. There's a planter of swiss chard covered up and some plants got brought inside. Unfortunately, I forgot to pick some basil in the community garden and it's likely to freeze there.
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3 hours ago, Hoth said:
Here's what we'll do. As it no longer snows in southern CT, I will enter into a snow futures contract with you. You ship me X cubic meters of snow each month on dry ice. Your total snow removal cost drops to nothing. I, in turn, will spread the snow and glaciate it with my hose, thereby making it a marvel of the CT River Valley. I will sell tickets to all and sundry to sled at a buck a run. I'll even have Ryan bring in "Snow Monster" for a cameo. I'll also enter into a snowfall credit default swap of sorts, in case your winter turns out like 2016. Deutsche will underwrite just about anything.
Absolutely perfect!
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We've got our power back! Mind you, it was just after we refilled the generator. And it might be good that we refilled it; we just had a pretty good gust blow through.
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Eversource fail. Reporting my outage via phone and their site both fail. Such a simple thing for them to get right. Power outages and weather aren’t unexpected.
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11 minutes ago, alex said:
Been there before. Amazing place. Today was really fun on the river though.
I am envious. It's a place that I want to visit sometime. And the river looks idyllic too!
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Last I looked, the Maldives were open to American tourists again.
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Winter Banter and General Disco 2
in New England
Posted
Thanks for the links!