LordBaltimore

Not to deb but even aside from accumulations this isn't really a fun storm. Very sloppy snow, lots of puddles and mud everywhere. Not prime jebwalking conditions

I think the past few winters have really helped me appreciate how much variety we have in terms of snow-events and gradients here. It's probably the best thing about Maryland winters that you can live in a place that averages 10" a year and there's still going to be some storm where you jack over someone with a 50" climo. This event is a northeast gradient, earlier this year was South-east, climo obviously favors North-west/South-west but we have it all

Trammel Starks Pier 32 is mandatory for sn++

This is a zero sum game. Someone elses snow is snow that isn't yours. Tale as old as time. 32 degrees right now in Columbia

All the haters killed its self confidence

They kind of do just given how delicate the set up is. There's some kind of bifurcation point here and we're riding the boundary line of that

Can't be said enough. The GFS is a perfectly fine model. It doesn't verify as well as the Euro because with all the work on the dynamical core and DA system there's a backlog in all the other bread and butter parts of running a model - obs QC, error parameterization, physics parameters, bias correction etc. etc. It's not "broken" and a few bad performances doesn't mean it will always do worse than other models.

If we can be sure of anything it's that accumulation on road-side snow piles will be amazing

Wet ground matters because it increases conducivity. But then that becomes a factor of ground temperature which is still quite cold because of the snowpack. It's not nearly as much of a factor as it normally is

People have this idea I think that the quality of models is more different than they really are. Like I remember someone saying yesterday that the GFS takes multiple cycles to flush out bad initialization data. That's literally how every single modern weather model works. It's called 4dvar. It's something that would impact the Euro too

What's that guys? Do I hear CAVING from Euro's room?

GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says

They're focusing on getting JEDI to one day work instead of tuning the old DA system. It will get better once people actually work on it

I really, really, really need this sunday to be a MECS just so I can see the look on peoples faces when the last bit of snow finally melts only to be replaced by a fresh foot the very next day

Not bad for pity snow