BarryStantonGBP

A s2k user said (and I agree):

Invest 93L As of 18:00 UTC Jul 14, 2025: Location: 29.6°N 78.0°W Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A Minimum Central Pressure: 1016 mb Environmental Pressure: N/A Radius of Circulation: N/A Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

thanks mate

pls someone change the title to 10/30 I can't do it

Mental run mate

I could see that happening

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Near the Southeastern U.S.: A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week (and y’all better stock up on Hot Cheetos, I am NOT playing). Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Jackson

no wonder I have a Newfoundland landfall in my forecast

right here’s the thing mate you keep saying “mixed signals” as if that’s some badge of honour for not having an opinion just because there’s not 100% consensus on every single indicator doesn’t mean you can just sit on the fence until september and then post “i told you so” either way the only reason there’s “mixed” anything is because everyone’s copium-addicted to the composite charts instead of looking at the actual year-on-year overlays like i posted let’s talk apples to apples since you’re bringing up 2004 and 2024 as if they’re the same animal they’re not even in the same zoo 2024 was an el niño hangover year with a spring mdr lid so thick you could serve sunday roast on it the only reason it backloaded is because the mjo went ballistic in september and the canary current spat a warm anomaly into the main development region now look at the 2025 sst overlays (and yes, i posted the maps, not some coped-out composite) it’s a carbon copy of 2004 right down to the global dipoles, but with even stronger itcz support and the shear dropping earlier the “ohc is not 2024” line is classic boomer cope as well you don’t need 2024-level ohc to get majors in the atlantic—look at 2017, the majors all tracked along the mdr-warm corridor and exploded when the upper-level pattern unlocked i’ve posted the week-by-week sst and ohc maps if you wanna check your own receipts you just need enough for rapid intensification, not endless warehouse reserves if you only go bullish in literal record years you’ll never catch the true analog years before the boom you also keep hedging with “let’s see by mid-august” and “i need more data”—that’s just covering your arse so you can never be wrong you said yourself this is a +anomalous sst year with neutral enso, record-low sal, and a wind profile about to crack open from the west african monsoon if you’re “lean an” you should be bullish, period this isn’t 2013, this isn’t 2024, and if you actually look at the subtropical ssta and the evolving ohc corridor, you’ll see it’s 2017-2004 hybrid energy with even more mdr runway if the first proper wave survives also 2025 ohc > 2017 ohc according to the maps you posted innit the “do it there” line is rich considering half the takes in here are recycled from s2k and stormiest anyway just admit you’re in the camp of “nobody knows so i’ll only commit once a cat 2 is on the map” and move on some of us will keep calling it like we see it with the receipts and the week-by-week analog overlays when the wave train lights up don’t be shy to come back and say “alright, grandpa, you had a point” cheers barry out