mempho

It’s not about who is willing.  I am sure many journalists are willing.  Their employers on the other hand are not.  It’s called insurance and lawsuits.  Things have changed since the days of Bob Woodward 

Thankfully, we have the internet. It's just unfortunate that live feeds, outside of satellite, are pretty much limited to the availability of working cell towers. I'm sure we have some brave souls out there tonight who will eventually get us the story- it just won't be tonight.

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I’ve NEVER seen a TV crew stay on a barrier island during a major hurricane with 10-12 foot storm surge.  It doesn’t happen.  It has never happened 
even the crazy storm chasers left the barrier islands.

I saw video from the Beau Rivage during Katrina-- not from a journalist.

As far as journalists go, their job is to be willing to risk their lives to break the story. What if Bob Woodward had been a coward? It's what they are supposed to do- no matter the actual situation. I wonder how much everyday crap that we've never heard about that they don't report on because they're afraid of getting whacked when I see stuff like this.

Like I said, there are some blue sheds out there willing to take the job if the current crop of reporters can't take the risk.

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No reported deaths, no one on top of roofs, no piers gone, no major damage reported. Just a typical Carolina hurricane. They was talking like another Hazel. #joke

Stuff is bad out there on the cape but noone is there to deliver the story.

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You’re kidding, right?  Live crews always move inland from barrier islands before it gets bad

Indycar drivers get paid to drive 230 mph. There are risks to getting the story. And you'd better get the story if you're hyping for days with "storm of a lifetime" at the bottom of your screen.

A guy is currently standing in drizzle with a 20mph wind under a palm tree.

You know Blue Shed ought to have the job.

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Anyone have links for chasers?  Looking for a blue shed

Coverage tonight is terrible. I can't believe that there's not a soul with a live feed on Cape Lookout or Atlantic Beach right now.



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But the point I was trying to make is I don't think that happens at a fast enough rate such that it outpaces the speed of upwelling, especially for a storm the size of Florence.

Fair enough. I can see your point as well and it is debatable. Are there any buoys moored directly in the Gulf Stream close to the eye that would enable us to see what actually happens?

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Probably not. I don't think the NE flow of water is fast enough/deep enough to counteract upwelling. But I agree that the inner core has actually gotten its act together rather well. I doubt it intensifies much, but it'll probably at least hold serve
 

The flow at the surface would get stalled but that would not stop the fresh supply of warm waters at deeper layers which will get mixed out via upwelling.

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This scenario if probably more costly in terms of damage than a tightly wound cat 4 or even 5.

I'm glad someone actually said it. It may not end up this way but this is currently defying the simplicity of the SS scale in that it's likely presenting a "worse" overall situation. Massive wind field and slow movement to boot plus there is ample evidence to argue that it could still do some strengthening.

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1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Has there ever been a storm that's stalled right before making landfall in the Carolinas?

I remember Felix- the 1995 version....it had an almost due west heading coming in and it stalled and looped.  

We will never get through a major hurricane again without somebody mentioning annular.

I think it took me 5 minutes of "catch-up" reading just from this evening to get to at least 5!

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I'm not really qualified to answer this but if I had to guess it's probably the result of an eye wall replacement. Florence could very possibly transform into an annular hurricane. (EDIT) Got me there mempho! 

Perfect timing!

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Can anyone explain the reduction in banding that seems to be occurring on IR?

EWRC, bud. However, if this thing completes the cycle in time to take advantage of the warm SSTs and low shear, she could become annular.

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In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings....

A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular."




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It's obvious alright. You may have won the political and PR battle but you have not and with not defy science and Mother Nature without paying the bill. The sad thing is, future generations and the environment will be paying the bill.

And exactly how would blanket worldwide acceptance of AGW have prevented anything if there were absolutely no dissenting opinions as of say, 1992?

The thing about these methane releases is that this was going to happen anyway. Therefore, we can't really blame anyone for it. Stuff happens. People live. People die. People get rich. People with private jets tell me that I am a cancer on the planet.

X

Going to be hard on the politicos who just wanted AGW as a means of consolidating transnational political control.

Sort of hard to sell a solution when nothing can be done.

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Actually... Good point. As per your point earlier, God knows how many people might be unaccounted for in some of these very rural areas-- and it looks like even in the population centers, they're finding bodies everywhere.

There's definitely a Katrina parallel here, in the sense that we're seeing a contemporary death toll that seems strangely anachronistic-- like it's from another era.

WAFF in Huntsville is reporting 147 in their corner of NW Alabama which doesn't include Birmingham or Tuscaloosa. These are apparently not all official numbers. Considering all factors, I would not rule out some of the larger numbers. I don't think it will happen, but I wouldn't be just utterly shocked if the adding machines got into Katrina-like figures. We're talking about some densely-populated areas that got hit with what amounts to a death sentence.

Yeah, I do understand that, but you may be giving people the false assumption that they will be safe if they do as they are told, even in the face of a tornado that has a low survivability rate. If people believe that they will survive if they go to an interior room, even though the tornado isn't going to leave anything on the foundation, you've just given someone who may have lived if they would have ran away the wrong advice. If they think 'well he said I'm going to be safe' so I guess I won't try to run from the storm.

I'm probably not wording it right, or something though, sorry.

I'm agreeing with this part. I think the impression a lot of people were given was just wrong. I watched Spann and he did an excellent job and I don't know what else could've been done but I think a lot of the average people were under the impression that they were "supposed to survive" if they only listened and did what they were told.

Honestly, everyone on these forums knew better than that before this thing ever left Tuscaloosa. Many people on here correctly said that it would be a miracle if it weakened or dissapated before hitting the Birmingham region. We had all of the indicators....radar signature, live video footage, storm structure, unthinkable g2g velocities....I mean, we all were sitting here and we all knew that this was most likely going to be a major problem for some portion of the Birmingham metro. We watched it strengthen and watched its breadth increased as it approached and all of us knew in our guts that the hall closet was no place to be for this one.

I happen to think that people deserve to know what kind of risk they are facing and I think most of them ignored their gut instincts by trying to do the "smart thing" and listened to the experts. I don't feel as if anyone was dishonest or did a bad job or anything but I think the impression a lot of people had was just not in sync with the harrowing reality of the situation at hand. Personally, I think they deserved to know if for no other reason than to say their last goodbyes or make their peace with God.

You know, I've heard it around the office today....people look at these pictures today and ask "what is the point of trying to stay in your closet if you're going to be killed no matter what?"

There is a chaser from Alabama named Brett Adair so I'm not sure if that statement is trying to be attributed to him. Quick glance at his pages doesn't show anything.

Not on his status?

What was the infamous line that Gary England told his viewers on 5/3/99...something like "if you don't get underground, you're going to die."

If a TV met said that yesterday, there probably would've been a mass exodus down into the streets.

FYP

I tend to agree with Tacoman here. I don't know that it's feasible to get everyone to a community shelter fast enough if a tornado warning is issued, especially if your neighborhood is experiencing severe weather already. And do you really want hundreds of people swarming one spot in cars, in severe weather? I tend to think it's better for people to stay where they are, and find the best place to ride the storm out at that location.

Plus no matter what you do, you are always going to have people who don't care about the weather aren't going to take any action at all. They will be the ones fuming about Dancing with the Stars being interrupted as an F5 heads right for their house.

I must be thinking about a much smaller neighborhood than you're thinking. I'm thinking about a 90 second maximum walk or so but I live in a fairly densely populated area that would be one of those areas that are difficult to flee due to congestion. So, it might be that there would be multiple multi-family shelters just depending upon the size of the neighborhood. My street has 48 homes on it and putting one in the middle commons area underneath the little "park" would make the maximum walk, door-to-door, about 60 seconds. Almost any shelter requires going outside to at least some extent.

One shelter for 48 homes is infinitely more cost-effective than 48 individual shelters.

a tornado shelter?

Not cost effective for everyone. It's just not. People spend $5k on a shelter and end up needing the money for medical problems so I don't think it's simply a matter of values. I do think, however, that having a community shelter is a great idea. I think it's a great idea for organizations like HOAs (homeowners associations). It's a lot cheaper to build one big one that everyone in a reasonably-sized neighborhood can get to than building one small one for every family. The cost per family would be fairly inexpensive.

I think you're forgetting one major point. Even in large tornadoes, there is a fairly small area that will be impacted by violent tornadic winds. There are a lot of people that will be impacted, but by lesser tornado winds that are easily survivable in a structure. As I mentioned, real-time forecasting of exactly where in a city or town a tornado is moving is not exact. As a result, we cannot pinpoint who is going to be impacted by violent winds and who is not. Mass evacuation, then, must send people from low mortality locations outside of the violent winds into their cars. If those people are impacted by the same winds (strong, but not violent), their probability of injury or death has increased because cars are so much more dangerous than structures. If those people are impacted by violent winds because the tornado changes path or they get confused, their probability of injury or death has spiked. Either way, more people away from the strongest winds are dying. I doubt that real-time forecasting is sharp enough, evacuation plans clear enough, and mortality rates high enough that such a plan makes sense.

Evacuation might not be the only feasible alternative. I believe there is a feasible and cost-effective solution out there.

From Brent Adair's FB (I'm hoping someone can falsify this statement, please):

Just got information from a search team member in Pleasant Grove, AL....well built homes are no where to be found and people died in there basements. Some basements even damaged or "gone". This tornado may do things to the EF scale we never thought imaginable.

Currently, my boss is looking for someone in Pleasant Grove...a long-time friend and colleague...who lived in Pleasant Grove and had a basement. No one he has talked to in BHM has heard anything from this person, but, if anyone heres anything that contradicts or verifies this statement, please let us know. Thanks.

In the Moore tornado, the fatality rate in the strongest presumed wind areas was ~2%. That was an ideal situation though, as the media was great, many residents had tornado shelters, the residents largely heeded warnings, and the warning lead time was huge.

In this case, the media was great, the warning time was huge, but it's unclear if warnings were heeded and/or if shelter was adequate. That being said, I think, based on previous studies, that you're likely overstating the fatality rate in the most violent areas of this tornado. I assume it will be looked at eventually.

Regardless, I doubt very seriously that the fatality rate will get as high as to advocate media sending hundreds if not thousands of civilians to the streets into their cars to flee the tornado. The impending chaos and traffic jams would be a complete disaster. I don't think we want to know what the fatality rate is of a violent tornado making a direct hit on a civilian in a motor vehicle. Let's just say it's far, far worse.

In the end, the media did their job, they did it well, and they did it a way that maximized the probability that the citizens of the town as a whole would survive. Any indication otherwise is not supported by the available information at this time.

Well, I hope you're correct. I'd like to get a decent handle on the survival rate but the 50% was an approximate number I got from a met but that doesn't mean that its necessarily accurate. This is a most important point, though. The survival rate for a violent (EF4+) tornado for people suffering a direct hit and who are sheltering in an interior room on the lowest floor of a standard wood-frame house is really a key point. If it's something like 90%+, then you would be correct in saying that sheltering in place is probably the best thing to tell the population in the path to do. However, if it's more like 60% or less, there is probably something viable that could be done for those in the path...because those types of probabilities are unacceptable.

Finally Ive been waiting for someone to speak of this..Here we have a death toll that may approach or exceed 200 lives but a stupid ass Wedding gets the attention. The cable networks are failing big time! This should be front story.

From some non-internet reports that I've received from people that I know, I think the number is much higher. I have very good information that suggests that the number is at least 220 because of a large number that have yet to make it to confirmed reports and that just happens to be one little area about which I know someone who's in EMA.