mempho

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The first real push of moisture of the main event making it's way into the high risk area. I would imagine the boiling hot waters of the Gulf of California will only intensify banding as the event progresses. 

Looks like SSTs pushing 90F?

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There have been so many in the last decade that they probably have to dramatically shorten the recurrence intervals for our warmer atmosphere that can hold much more moisture. They forgot to add the The Death Valley event last summer to the official list below. The most recent one was near West Point back in July. Several last summer also weren’t added to the list.

https://www.weather.gov/owp/hdsc_aep

 

 

My point was not really to derail the thread but just to get people to think a little bit about what's happening these days.  I realize that these thoughts are a downer.   

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we can see how serious the flash flooding was in Death Valley last summer when they had their historic rainfall which was lower than is being projected with Hillary.

You are referring to the 1 in 1,000 year event last year?  

1 hour ago, Shocker0 said:

Our high so far today NW of Crossville is -1. The Wind Chill has been consistently -20 or colder since this morning. I am happily staying indoors all day.

Congrats if you can hold it.  

Tellico,

Do you have a link on that???

It’s down to 2F over here.

Last hour, it was 3F at KMEM with a wind chill of -19F

That was the 1am ob.  Will it continue dropping?  

6 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Memphis.

What station is that?  

21 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Even more of a negative tilt if anything, the slp is 40 miles west and 2 mb deeper at 54. A better run for west and central TN, though it sputters out over the great valley.

Look at the map carefully.  Some of that is lake effect.  

43 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Long range NAM clowns, particularly of the Earl Barker variety (if I'm remembering his name correctly) were high quality entertainment in years past.

It’s Baker!!!

Quick Question- Here's a weather belief that I hold and I want to know if it's true, false, or unresolved.

For Gulf storms that landfall on the northern Gulf Coast or potentially traversing along the Florida West Coast...

Does the land interaction cause or increase the risk that the storm turns to the right just before landfall (or, in the case of a storm like this, can it potentially cause it to "turn right" into a landfall)?   

I recall several strong hurricanes appearing to turn or jog to the right along the northern Gulf coast. 

Also, I'm talking generally...which may or may not be specific to this storm.  

Lastly, if this were the case, would this or would this not be factored in to the track forecast?  

On a related note 
Peoria City schools on remote learning today and tomorrow 
Kids can't even have a snow day when school is cancelled anymore thanks to the aftermath of COVID times
That would suck from their point of view
 

That optimism worked well for you guys last February. Sadly I emerged from that “Arctic Outbreak” even more skeptical than before.

My heart goes out to all the professional mets out there. This forecast feels impossible. Tremendous bust potential in either direction.

Models historically have underestimated Gulf moisturize when these type systems tap the Gulf. Think about that.

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The NWS New Orleans is saying the cause is flash flooding 

I mean, extreme flash flooding pushing people all the way to the attic? 
 
Either way, regardless of how it is happening that is incredibly bad news.

Multiple snap chats with people in the attic in this area

Does anyone know how to find the levee cams for levees protecting New Orleans?

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I was expecting stronger when I got up this morning, but this is definitely over my guess. We need an EWRC and fast. Main hurricane levees are at risk at this level. Any more strengthening will not help in that regard.

Probably, but not a given...15' surge is possible 

They did not exactly say no threat-they hedged their bets with the "little to no" threat. 

Katrina was 16 years and billions of dollars in flood protection ago.  The levees won’t be topped.  The main concern for within the protected areas are wind and rain as the pumps can only pump a certain amount of rainfall per hour

Katrina was 16 years and billions of dollars in flood protection ago.  The levees won’t be topped.  The main concern for within the protected areas are wind and rain as the pumps can only pump a certain amount of rainfall per hour

But probable
Just like everyone saying it's heading to New Orleans.
Models can only do so much. Especially during the fact that you have a TC strengthening. 
I can tell you that the current center fix with a strengthening center is already too far east and curving to make landfall in New Orleans.
It's going to be east. 

STORM SURGE - No storm surge inundation forecast - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm surge flooding - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding. Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are possible. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding are needed. - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor forecasts. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

175/175/914/Grand Isle

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