sheeit this sounds ROUGH ngl
Unfortunately Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued
rapid intensification in the short-term. The light to moderate
easterly shear that had been affecting the system is subsiding,
while the hurricane remains embedded in a large area of deep-layer
moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The small and
well-organized inner core likely means the hurricane should take
full advantage of these pristine conditions, and both the GFS and
ECMWF versions of SHIPS-RII show rapid intensification indices 7 to
10 times above climatology. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast
will explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making
Beryl a very dangerous Category 3 hurricane before it moves across
the Windward islands by tomorrow night. Once Beryl enters the
Caribbean, there could be a marked increase in westerly vertical
wind shear as a strong easterly low-level jet, common for this time
of year in the eastern Caribbean Sea, will keep Beryl moving quickly
westward against lighter upper-level upper-level easterlies
partially eroded by a deep-layer trough off the Eastern Seaboard.
Thus some weakening is forecast after 48 hours as Beryl moves
further into the Caribbean. The NHC intensity forecast remains close
to the reliable consensus aids and now shows a peak intensity of 110
kt in 36 hours, though a few of the regional-hurricane models do
peak Beryl stronger than shown here.