I moved to Amherst last year. I'm quickly getting used to this area not being great for snow.
GFS from like 300-384 hours has looked great most runs for the past 2 months. It might pan out someday.
It's because of the complete lack of lake effect this year. I don't remember it ever being this bad, even in 2011-12 there were a couple LES advisory hits for the Buffalo area. Synoptically, it's been very active for the Buffalo area.
I wish I understood what KBUF NWS is excited about. This looks like your regular shortwave through the Ohio Valley to me. This must be how normal people feel listening to my weather babble.
From my conspiratorial eye, KBUF will underestimate the marginal temp synoptic events (which is all we've seen this year) and overestimate lake effect events. But they also do those maps that are always too high.
Yep. I forget that there's a lot of folks well east of me here. The only part that would have me excited is if the Friday snow shifts west, which won't happen.
So, even the best of these ensembles would translate to like a few inches of slop at lower elevation. Bleh. We need cold and LES somehow for once this year.
No, a pattern change to below average temps will happen by late February, just in time for sun angle season. And then we'll get a snowstorm on Easter, to bookend unseasonable events with Veteran's Day.