BuffaloWeather

Wind shift occurring on western end of lake already.

Tonight 33-49"+ point and click. A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Southwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers after 2pm. Areas of blowing snow between noon and 2pm. High near 30. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 3am, then a chance of snow showers after 3am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

RAP

For Lake Erie, a thermal trough will likely develop within the nearly 20C delta T between the lake surface and 850mb. This will likely back the surface winds 10-20 degrees such that instead of a westerly flow. Its a micro climate weather pattern, only happens in early season LES events.

6-8" per hour?

You setup downtown?

12z WRFs

If any storm chasers are up and want to join discord let me know, or any upstate posters. We have 54 members so far that joined and its poppin this morning!

I expect the ratios to be 1:12-1:15 in the beginning and then slowly rise as temperatures drop to 1:15-1:20 ratios. Compaction depends on how much snow falls, the greater the snow depth the more compaction there is.

NAM came in pretty far south

I'm right in the middle of that but I think due to the warm lake it goes 5-10 miles north with the heaviest bands. The models always underestimate the northern extent in early season events.

Good to hear from you Scott, hope all is well! We need to meet up for wings again!

Couple videos from yesterday, started out with heavy graupel.

Who said lake effect is fake effect, 6" of QPF lol

70"

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet in the most persistent lake snows. The heaviest snow is expected late this evening through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph with produce patchy blowing snow. * WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commute. The heavy snow could also bring down some tree limbs and cause scattered power outages.

..SNOWFALL REPORTS LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE LAT/LON ..NEW YORK ..CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY 3 S FREDONIA 3.4 IN 1045 PM 11/16 42.39N/79.33W ..ERIE COUNTY 2 S SOUTH WALES 10.0 IN 1150 PM 11/16 42.68N/78.57W 1 W COLDEN 8.2 IN 1030 PM 11/16 42.65N/78.71W 3 NE HOLLAND 7.5 IN 0950 PM 11/16 42.67N/78.51W 11.6" in Boston already

Morning runs

Tonight A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 8pm, then snow after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after noon. High near 35. Southwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Southwest wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 1pm, then a chance of snow showers after 1pm. Areas of blowing snow between 11am and 1pm. High near 30. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before 2am, then a chance of snow showers after 2am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%.