The Waterboy

Wondering how you all feel about these: 1. I’ll take a wet snow over a dry, blowing snow pretty much every time. 2. I much prefer models showing a few inches and the storm over performing vs this nonsense of 12” turning into way less.

You jinxed it! And we’re all blaming you!!!

Finally started coming down heavier in Bentonville. Road/driveway coated in 30 mins or less. We’re going to need these heavy bands to continue for a few hours straight in order to get 6+.

All snow here in NWA. Decent sized flakes. Roads are primarily wet even at 23°. Happy to see we escaped the sleet/fz rain. Hopefully everybody transitions quickly.

Fair enough. That makes sense. Now it’s time to have fun and see what happens!

The mood here soured quickly…. what happened??? Edit: 03z RAP only shows 13” for me versus the 18” on the 21z. Let’s not throw out the baby with the bath water.

14” in Bentonville. Wow…

15z RAP drops between 0.75 to 1” QPF in a swath from far SE KS, NE OK, SW MO, into NW AR. Wichita NWS mentions ratios 18:1 - 20:1.

Models are locked into a major event for pretty much everybody NE of OKC. Still some interesting differences in the heaviest bands which will be almost impossible to predict in advance. Tulsa, Wichita, Joplin, Springfield, Bentonville all look like the potential bullseye areas. The NAM continues to be the outlier and it hasn’t been great for the entire storm.

RDPS and ICON smash NE OK and NW AR.

Yes we are. I’m not convinced it’s right. Way too much sleet to start. 18z RDPS going to look good for us which is the trend we want to see continue. EDIT: Looks like the ICON will be solid too.

NAM still continues to be the overall outlier compared to pretty much every other model. Let’s hope it’s wrong.

18z ICON continues to be a solid hit for us.

I remember the good old days of TWC as well. I used to have a NOAA radar detector that would play a recorded forecast from NWS Tulsa. It would update around lunchtime every day. As Nate Bargatze says - I’m from the 1900’s. Bottom line in this reminiscing is: Some of us (me included) are getting old! If you younger folks don’t know what we’re talking about, enjoy your youth!!!

Same for me in Bentonville. We got 4” after 10:30 last night. Just measured between 6-7” total.