NVAwx

Saint Elizabeth Parish has a population of 151,000.

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the province of Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Camaguey. The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba and the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be a strong hurricane when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb (26.34 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa. Total structural failure is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Do not venture out in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the eyewall. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today and continue into Wednesday. Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Just for the posterity because I haven't seen the full statement posted yet... "Last chance to protect your life."

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 74.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the central Bahamas and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Interests in eastern Cuba, the southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 74.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to track across the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression on Saturday and a tropical storm Saturday night or early Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall amounts through Monday morning. Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible. Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches of rain are expected. Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall are expected. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Humberto is now a Cat 3. SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 58.1W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (formerly AL94), located near eastern Cuba, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Can you link to the site of the data as it comes in?

Have we gotten the results yet?

Since Friday?

Lynchburg, Martinsville, Appomattox, Keysville, Eden, Yanceyville, Danbury, Amherst, South Boston, and Danville

Winter Commuting Hazard coming for the immediate metro area?

Yeaaah this ain't good for the DMV. But enjoy RVA and 757!

Can’t lose what you never had. Bless his heart.

Precipitation is forecast to exit the region on Monday , but river flooding could linger through Monday evening as water slowly drains through the river system. Below normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are favored through the middle parts of next week. The next chance for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday when a coastal low may bring coastal low to the region with wintry precipitation possible. - LWX discussion (2/13/25 @ 2:41 pm) FUJIWHARA!?!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=LWX

Precip starting to move into the 6-hour forecasts. This is by 7am Tuesday (furthest it goes for now).

Afternoon AFD doesn’t even nibble at QPF or watches. 2:33 PM AFD: LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upcoming week will feature a very active stretch of weather locally, with multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation. Models are in good agreement that on the synoptic scale, there will be upper level ridging in place in the East Pacific/over Alaska, and then also over the North Atlantic/Greenland, with a broad upper low in place over much of Canada. A strong north-south temperature gradient will reside to the south of the upper low over the United States, with a corresponding strong upper jet extending across the CONUS. Multiple disturbances will both undercut the Alaskan ridge, and ride over the ridge within split flow, then rapidly move eastward across the CONUS. The trend over the past few model cycles has been for more confluence over New England resulting in a slightly suppressed storm track Tue. The energy associated with this feature has also trended more strung out as compared to consolidated. This feature will not be fully sampled over the CONUS for another day or so, so the so called wind shield wiper effect of south/north shifts in model output is expected. The first system will exit by 12Z Wed with only a short break in precip before the next precip event arrives midnight Wed night. The primary low pressure system is fcst to track across the upper OH River Valley with guidance indicating a prominent warm nose a mix to rain or all rain more likely. Areas west of the Blue Ridge could see another icing event with this system. A third and more complex system may impact the region next weekend with all types of wintry precip possible. Temps look to stay below normal for daytime highs and near normal for nighttime lows into late Feb aside from residing in the warm sector of any cyclones.

Lock it in. Start a thread.

Is there a website I can easily figure out how many hours we have been above freezing and below freezing since January 1? For instance: How many hours above freezing vs. below freezing at DCA and IAD Number of hours below freezing in a row Etc.

Is there a website I can easily figure out how many hours we have been above freezing and below freezing since January 1? For instance: How many hours above freezing vs. below freezing at DCA and IAD Number of hours below freezing in a row

Is the severe weather side of the storm progressing as modeled? I recall one storm in the early 2000s where the severe outbreak robbed all the moisture/energy from the snow side.

Subtract 5 hours in the winter for EST!

but consistent with the LWX forecast I think.

Have any of the models shown any ptype issues north and west of DC? With these kuchera totals, it seems all snow?