Scott747

It's in the middle of an erc so nailing the center is a little tricky and there can be wide variations on the pressure readings. Especially with the gradient that Milton has shown.

Another recon is already nearing the storm.

Damn. What a gradient. Looks like it might be below 910 this pass.

As the thread starts heating up again try not quoting any imagery with quick reactions. If your commenting and contributing to some meaningful type of analysis, then fine.

Otherwise it's going to disappear. There is already enough scrolling as it is.

We don't normally do this but we're at a point that even with a not particularly large Florida contingent here... There probably needs to be a dedicated thread for local impacts, warnings etc. independent of this and the banter thread. There will be some good info that will quickly be lost like was shared on the last page or two.

That imagery is starting to get some Haiyan vibes. Effing crazy.

Expect another special advisory.

939 on the NOAA pass.

941 on the latest pass. Still dropping like a rock.

Nasty gradient on the way in for the latest eye penetration.

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The newest dropsonde says about 947 mb.

That's from about 30 min ago.

AF309 will be making a new pass in about 15 min.

Eye down to 10 mi.

I'd guess we might get pressure down into the upper 930's on one of the upcoming passes.

Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen.  The Air 
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to 
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde 
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special 
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now 
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.

The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous 
forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track 
forecast has been made through 36 hours.  Hurricane-force winds 
are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan, 
and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion.  
The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico 
to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun 
southward to Campeche.  The storm surge forecast has been increased 
to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast 
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Latest NOAA pass confirms that the pressure is in the low to mid 940's. Definitely a remarkable drop overnight.

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has 
strengthened to a major hurricane.  The maximum sustained winds are 
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h).  Milton is a category three 
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Data from 
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect 
this change and update the forecast. 


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

The eye is certainly clearing out but calling it a pinhole already is a little premature.

3 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Maybe not till tomorrow up to the mods but can we get a banter thread up and running?


.

So far it has been relatively free from a bunch of non-sense, but we're close enough out from landfall of a probable major that anyone can get one going.

All four of the hurricane models show a cat 4 landfall just s of Tallahassee with 3 of them putting it pretty much in the eyewall/eye, and considering the speed it will be moving of at least an upper end 3 if not still a 4.

Definite filth on the 18z GFS. TS winds from Galveston to New Orleans. Hurricane gusts from the Golden Triangle to Houma.

Still grain of salt type of run that far out.

Last hour I've been around sustained 20 with a few gusts over TS force.

Surely they upgrade chances at the next TWO. Not sure if it warrants a PTC but can't be that far off even if it's only in a 12-18 hr window.

Thought it was a long shot but just offshore of Galveston/Freeport is looking interesting this morning.

This has way over preformed expectations. I recorded a 81 mph gust right as I lost power. Been in the ne eyewall for a solid hour. Damage in the southern part of Brazoria might surprise some folks.

It certainly hasn't felt like a borderline cat 1.

12 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Matt Lanza’s always helpful write-ups for The Eyewall:

https://theeyewall.com

He and the SCW crew took a hit with their rep after the derecho. And been downplaying any threat with Beryl and now backtracking...

12z Euro says to buckle up.

Quite the shift in track with the latest advisory. Across South Padre e of Port Isabel and then just s of Port Mansfield.