Scott747

Behaving as expected. Modeling has backed off somewhat the last couple of days and showing more of a stretched out system with no dominant center between the lower and mid Texas coast. At least there is a 'tropical' feel between the wave action and winds/cloud cover that is bringing some relief from the heat and eventual rain across parts of the area.

Models have been flirting with the potential of a quick spin up off the Texas coast early next week. Seems a toss up right now of an organized tropical system, but should at least bring some well needed rain across parts of Texas.

Meh so far.

Maybe 35 sustained and 50 gusts at the casa.

Took a dip down near the coast about an hour ago and it was about 40-45 sustained and 60 gusts. Probably getting a little rougher down there these last 30 minutes. 

Leading up to landfall in these last few hours and if it isn't some heavy hitting analysis or solid contributions and you see your posts removed...

That's a good hint to take it to the banter thread.

This special 
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135 
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that 
before landfall occurs.

AF305 will be making a pass in about 15 min. 

Currently approaching the eye.

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

The responses to my opinion speak volumes.  It was an OPINION.  If you wish to censor opinions, feel free to do so, but at least acknowledge that debate leads to progress.  Would it be fair to assume that you are progressive?  If you censor and ignore opposing viewpoints, how will you ever attain progress?   It is quite disturbing that you feel I am to be labeled a climate change denier.  I never denied climate change.  I simply deny that humans have any "real" effects on such.  I'll leave you guys to it.  Sorry for offering a professional perspective. 

It had no business in the main thread.

'Opinion' away in this thread.

Josh is moving up the coast. Should be a fun drive....

41 minutes ago, wxmx said:

 

Yes, now I have this image in my mind

That's what it's going to look like too after landfall once it hits those mountains. The disintegration of Karl was pretty amazing.

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm seeing 995

Where are you seeing 989 ?

Low-level Reconnaissance 

That's 0z guidance based on 18z models...

24 minutes ago, eyes2theskies said:

pretty big swing to the east on the 00z models

 

What 0z models?

Not sure if there ever has been an upgrade on an intermediate advisory and then subsequent downgrade on the next full advisory. This certainly is a candidate.

Harvey part II in the fantasy land 0z GFS.

15 minutes ago, mempho said:

Mexico Beach-- there's just no shelter there.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Actually there is.

8 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

 

@Scott747 what's his plan b?

He has a place further e. Not much but could make a difference.

I had him scout mexico beach overnight as i was leaning that way but this morning we both thought pc was solid with that out to the e if he needed to move.

Josh is fine. I spoke with him a little while ago to confirm that the eyewall was looking like a miss.

Forgot to pass along the news that it was a career defining miss - But I think he will recover....

Josh was down to 979, but I told him that unless there was a last minute wobble he may just miss the eyewall.

6 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

How's he doing, Scott? How are the folks in the ballroom/hallways faring? 

No idea about the guests. We just talk briefly about heading and presentation. 

And he may have lapses if TWC is asking him to do a report.

Just talked to him. 984.

1 minute ago, larrye said:

I have a friend who is a met who says that they are not as reliable and have seen it posted many times here. But maybe that has changed.

Grrr.... And it's been debunked. Especially inside of 72hrs. Search for poster 'dtk' and has detailed explanations.

5 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

Can someone direct me where to post closings thanks

For now I'd post them in the respective subforums. 

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Josh would miss the core by a lot if the new Euro verified.

Josh never left the airport once he landed in Exuma. The idea was to be flexible if a relocation was needed.

23 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Ugh...and they still have quite a while to go.

 

They really thought that was from Haiti?

31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Scott, feel free to set up a thread for Josh if you think it's warranted.

I know most follow him on twitter/facebook, so I'll just do some random updates in here if he's out of pocket.