Chris12WX

3 minutes ago, tunafish said:

why do you post under multiple usernames in the same damn thread? lol

Oh snap!! Good catch. 

Heaviest of the day right now.

Closing in on 1”. Been snowing since ~4am. Can still hear some melting. But accumulating on all surfaces. 

We really are wasting an impressive amount of QPF.

What’s everyone’s go to website for radar/satellite? I use CoD. Other suggestions?

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah.

I know I already stated BUT Forky did say a few days ago "this could easily jackpot Maine". I wonder how he was able to see that back then?

I know I said it about 100 pages ago, but these stall & capture storms….the “loop” always occurs later than modeled. 

Just now, tavwtby said:

sitting at 33.5/30 with flakes flying, should we fire up an obs thread? this is wayyy earlier than I expected to see any flakage

Weenie flakes and sprinkles were in the forecast for today.

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

 

God help my trees if we get 26”.

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Some dude made this map…

Shift this 25 miles north, cut by 25% and call it a forecast.

Just now, DomNH said:

Might be trending to a full blown condo collapser. Tough one. 

Had that in January. Neighbors yard still has 10 plus 20 ft pine limbs in it. Might as well bring down whole trees this time.

Me: “Dad…this storm would be awesome in February. Just no cold air.”

Dad: “There was no cold air in February.”

well played Dad. Well played.

Does anyone have Dec 92 snow map handy? While the storm evolution is different, can definitely see a similar accumulation map. (Probably not 40” or whatever though).

16 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Right after I say 6-12'' absolutely smoked on both the GFS and Euro. Ugh.

Do we get over 6.2”? Biggest of season.

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

8 to 12 will act bigger than 12 to 18. That's a tree toppler.

I’m not looking forward to it. Went through it in January. December? Can’t remember at this point. 

5 minutes ago, 512high said:

And where Chris lives in ASH, ALOT of trees....he gets to use the snow blower a second time.

As long as the driveway isn’t covered with debris. Lol

Honestly I think a lot of folks are going to be disappointed with this one. We’ve been tracking so long, folks expect a biggie. But there’s just a few things: airmass, inv trough, phasing, etc. where I don’t blame NWS and TV for being conservative. 
Yes there is a chance my hood could get 18”. But if forced to put a forecast put, I’d play it safe with 8-12”.

5 hours ago, George001 said:

The crazy thing is models could be underestimating the QPF by quite a bit despite giving many areas 2.5+ inches. With a 970s mb low stalling over the cape I think that will increase. 

Doubt. Once the upper levels catch the primary and the storm stalls the conveyer belts shit down and the storm weakens. That’s why as the storm drifts away, the QPF is minimal. 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Drunk uncle now the right unkle...I bet my left nut EURO looks like that.

Good news Ray gets to keep the left one

6 hours ago, Chris12WX said:

0-18” feels like a good forecast here.

I see no reason to change this at the moment. Lol

GYX says enjoy your rain. 

0-18” feels like a good forecast here.

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

925s are torched for many . Def take the lower end for many verbatim on that run .. looks like a change over after 8am Tuesday around here. 

Is it still 35-40 at the surface? How warm are the road surfaces going to be? Meat during daytime? Bring them down!

925 is a concern.

QPF weenies aren’t going to like the Euro. Kind of blows its load over NJ. It’s wrapped up so tight over ACK that its only like a 10 hr blitz with dry air working in aloft. 

Pretty good consistency within the ensemble means with the low passing over/near outer Cape. 

Used blower on Saturday. 

40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

EPS snow probabilities are decidedly less hugger than the Op though.

More classic nor’easter snow distribution.

Nothing wrong with that