Zeus

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The WOR crowd probably has PTSD from Reggie absolutely nailing Jan 2015 right down to the Ginxy-ORH-495 band and then 8-14" of sand for western areas.

I wouldn't worry too much about it at this point....maybe inside 48.

The Reggie look at 500 around hr 52 has some noticeable contrasts to just about every other model as to the structure of the key southern piece that gets dragged through Texas. Can't be discounted in the absence of better consensus from the bigger players, but it also doesn't carry any extra weight as an outlier here.

Just now, NeonPeon said:

I'm not convinced I'll get a foot, but even the most ardent pessimists will hope for more than 1-3"

I believe he may have been suggesting one to three inches of liquid equivalent precipitation.

2 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Someday I am going to open a bar called "966 on the Benchmark"

I'll have your finest scotch in my usual engraved stein, sir, and a round your skunkiest beer for all of my friends here.

Good morning! Are we winning?!

1 minute ago, Blue Dream said:

No need to feed the troll 

I think I love him

1 minute ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I'm sorry you're upset Zeus. There's been similarly tracked storms with similar setups that didn't pan out. I'm a traditional Miller A guy, I don't like Miller Bs and they tend to not play out well IMBY. God bless you

Yes; it is I who is upset.

2 minutes ago, wkd said:

I wish you had stayed in NE.  j/k

I wish I knew who you are. j/k

In all seriousness, I share the sentiment -- a widespread win of a storm would be deluxe.

2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

This has huge bust all over it if we look at other events in somewhat recent history. Man I'm just gonna go work out, maybe run some errands. We'll evaluate at 0z.

Thank you! I hope all is well in Truth or Consequences, New Mexico, and look forward to your insights when you feel the time is right to make science upon us.

7 minutes ago, wkd said:

 I hope this storm gives major snow to DC, Philly, NYC and Boston.  Its been so long since we even had a SECS covering all for metro ares.

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, probably closest one in recent memory was Jan 2018?

Pretty good, though I'm sure our friends in Philly and DC may beg to differ on that one. Though the NESIS scale may be imperfect, it's helpful to have some sort of metric that takes a more objective look at a storm. For my own studies, I've put together a ranked criteria to provide context for the real magnitude and impact of a given winter storm:

1. Did I, personally, get a lot of snow?
2. Was I awake for most of it?
3. Did people in areas increasingly at risk of being snow-starved in light of climate change get brutally shafted after having their hopes inflated by prior guidance?
4. Wind

Just now, WeatherWilly said:

Ill take 31 inches.

I'll call some buddies!

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Euro is the Real McCoy. Been a while since we've had a real PHL-BOS crusher.

Very true that it's been a while since the last "everybody wins" kind of big hit. Still a good bit of lead time -- this could well tuck in closer and bring a lot of excited folks into ptype/dry slot issues, or see the SW trend slower again and flatten the chances. For now, the sun is shining, we are eating wine and drinking chicken, and the forecast she look lovely in the sundress and straw hat.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see a coastal front getting near rt 128....its been several days since any solution has done that. 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like the CF is off of the table...I'm going need the deformation to slide east to get out of that RELATIVE screw zone.

I had not realized you moved to Kentucky. How are you liking it?

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This pisses me off..any other day 12z GFS bufkit is out by now. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh  

You've got three more 12z's to go before you see a flake. Let us reflect on this, and permit the comfort that it brings.

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

There's a 24"+ load blown SW of me off NJ coast.

And with a few more tics over the next 48 hours...

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I remember getting 10" of sand in Feb 2006 when we were forecasted for 18"+  and feeling like it was a huge disappointment. I definitely like to be a part of the big totals, otherwise its just ok. 

I would submit that, especially in that kind of scenario, there's something to be said for totals vs. expectations AND for the dendrites themselves. Sand/diamond dust is rarely satisfying unless you get absolutely buried. 2 to 4 inches of parachutes dancing down through naught a hint of a breeze and I'm seated at the window looking like Paul Reubens enjoying a matinee.

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Was it the LBRF that drew you in?

I go wherever the LB is, as I enjoy a good pounding.

That's layered wordplay right there.

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great run for the area as a whole

Good morning, specifically and particularly, to me.

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS mean QPF pretty good for a lot of folks

Juicy.

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

You left us?   Back to EE land?

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Holy shit!  How you been my friend?

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where are you? YOU are MISSED

Hi friends. You are missed, too. Moved back to New Jersey last year. Long story. Important part is I’m ****ing thriving. Twenty minutes from the beach. The winters down here won’t do, though, so I figure I’ll need a cabin at some point. I’ll be in Mass every now and again for work; will send up a flare. Anyhow, don’t want to muck up a good thread with my rambling. This one looks ripe for good ol’ Ess Enn EEe. 

Good luck up there, boys,

Seems like the trend NW hasn't necessarily continued on the 12z stuff in so far, but rather the trend W continues (things are slower) while the advancement north has stopped as it feels a bit flatter. If you consider only the heavy swath of the 12z GFS's precip shield to be "real" then it lines up fairly closely with the 12z NAM -- given the dry air coming in, this has the feeling of full on haves vs. have-nots when it comes to getting in on the goods.

Guess it might not be the worst winter to have moved back to New Jersey.