arlwx12

Darn it- where did I put the s***fence? I need it to wrap around myself and DCA, on the off chance that the s*** tries to give me a special delivery...

As a warminista, I'm hoping that NCEP's GFS claims for the 18th turn out to be pure RAIN, if anything at all.

DCA finally hit 32 at 0515.

More NWS map reports: American Legion Bridge hit 33 Springfield hit 32 Fort Belvoir hit 29

Airport low readings: DCA 37 BWI 30 IAD 28

From the latest NWS discussion: (snip) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Large scale troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS through the first half of next week. This troughing will be reinforced by a powerful cold front Sunday. The amount of available moisture is somewhat in question. There is the potential for showers or even a few low-topped gusty thunderstorms, but overall rainfall amounts look light (0.25" or less). The bigger story will be the cold airmass in the wake of this front. Temperatures are likely to fall below freezing west of I-95 amid northwest breezes by early Monday morning, with 20s expected over the higher elevations. Wind chills likely dip to near or below freezing areawide by daybreak Monday, with teens or even single digits above zero for wind chills on the higher peaks. The chill will continue during the day Monday as cold air advection continues. Despite breaks of sun and downsloping west/northwest winds, high temperatures probably won`t escape the 40s on Monday, and may remain in the 20s and 30s for the higher elevations. Combined with the wind, it will probably feel more like the 30s all day (teens/20s for the higher elevations). A widespread freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. This would end the growing season where it remains active along the I-95 corridor. Similarly cool high temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, with moderating temperatures by Wednesday. Although most of the area will remain dry, the first accumulating upslope/mountain snow event is looking increasingly likely for areas along and west of the Allegheny Front Sunday night through Tuesday. It is too soon to speculate on specific amounts, but the potential is there for the season`s first plowable snow. (snip)

As a warminista, I would love to predict zeros across the board. However, I'm afraid the weather knows where I am, so... BWI: 16.0 DCA: 14.0 IAD: 18.0 RIC: 8.0 Tiebreaker SBY: 8.0

Thunder and rain in Crystal City.

BWI 37 at 0600.

DCA hit 39 at 0545. Coldest since April.

LWX reported Dulles hit 32 at 0430. Now down to 30.

Freeze watch up for parts of the piedmont. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1153 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 VAZ028>031-039-040-051-501-502-230000- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0005.251024T0600Z-251024T1300Z/ Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier- 1153 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible. * WHERE...Culpeper, Northern Fauquier, Southern Fauquier, Clarke, Frederick VA, Madison, Page, Rappahannock, and Warren Counties. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. (snip)

Not so fast... Winter 2025-2026 forecast from NOAA. See maps, snow explanation. Winter is coming − but how cold is it going to be? Federal forecasters from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave us their answer Oct. 16 in their annual winter outlook. According to the forecast, a warmer-than-average winter is most likely across the southern tier of the nation, as well as in California and along much of the East Coast and Florida. Colder-than-normal conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and across the upper Midwest. As for snow and rain, the northern Rockies and Great Lakes region are most likely to see plenty of precipitation this winter, the Climate Prediction Center said. However, a drier-than-average winter is expected along the nation's southern tier, especially in the Southeast. (snip) Gottschalck said that warmer-than-normal temperatures are most likely for California, the southern Great Basin, the southern Rockies, the Southwest eastward to Texas, the Southeast and the coastal mid-Atlantic.(snip) ((but Accuweather dissents:)) AccuWeather also released its winter forecast earlier in October, and the private forecaster said that a "bookend winter" is on tap for the central and eastern U.S., with the biggest storms expected around the opening and the final weeks of the season. "It can be an intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic," AccuWeather lead long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. (snip)

Fox Weather seems to be sold on a coastal low, but LWX is still uncertain about impact on this area. From the 9 am forecast: (snip) A coastal low will deepen off the southeast U.S. coastline Friday night into Saturday as a deep, closed upper low simultaneously drifts southeastward across the Great Lakes. Eventually, these two systems will interact as the coastal low feels the northward pull of the induced southerly winds ahead of the upper low. This interaction will eventually draw the coastal low northward toward the Mid-Atlantic, with most guidance showing the coastal low tracking northward off the Carolina coast Saturday into Saturday night. This interaction between the closed upper low and the coastal low is a very delicate one, and will be very difficult for forecast models to get correct this far out in time. As a result, there is a much higher than normal amount of uncertainty regarding the details of the forecast this weekend. In terms of sensible weather, chances for showers and also winds will be on the increase locally Saturday afternoon, and especially Saturday night into Sunday (covered below in the Long Term discussion). Just how much rain we see and how strong the winds get will depend on the ultimate track of the low, which remains uncertain at this time horizon. (snip)

Updated freeze and frost warnings. National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1158 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 MDZ003-VAZ028-030-031-WVZ051>053-100000- /O.UPG.KLWX.FR.Y.0010.251010T0600Z-251010T1300Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.FZ.W.0003.251010T0600Z-251010T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 1158 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Washington County. In Virginia, Clarke, Frederick VA, and Warren Counties. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Jefferson, and Morgan Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday. National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1158 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 MDZ004>006-507-VAZ039-040-051-501-502-505-100000- /O.CON.KLWX.FR.Y.0010.251010T0600Z-251010T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-Madison- Rappahannock-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- 1158 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Carroll, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, and Northwest Harford Counties. In Virginia, Culpeper, Northern Fauquier, Southern Fauquier, Western Loudoun, Madison, and Rappahannock Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.