arlwx12

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... East central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 358 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Leesburg, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cabin John, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Potomac, Washington Grove, Belmont, American Legion Bridge, Langley, Bradley Farms, North Potomac, Germantown, Redland, Poolesville, Mclean, Montgomery Village, Darnestown, Derwood, Lowes Island, Lansdowne, and Great Falls.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... East central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 358 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Leesburg, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cabin John, Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Potomac, Washington Grove, Belmont, American Legion Bridge, Langley, Bradley Farms, North Potomac, Germantown, Redland, Poolesville, Mclean, Montgomery Village, Darnestown, Derwood, Lowes Island, Lansdowne, and Great Falls.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 324 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Round Hill, or near Charles Town, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Round Hill, Paeonian Springs, Purcellville, Leesburg, Waterford, Neersville, Doubs, Lucketts, Hillsboro, Point Of Rocks, Hamilton, Lovettsville, Tuscarora, Lincoln, Taylorstown, Rippon, Lansdowne, Poolesville, Adamstown, and Charles Town.

Flash flood watch for parts of DC metro. Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 VAZ031-053-055-057-501-502-505-506-526-527-WVZ052-053-150400- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-250515T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Clarke-Fairfax-Stafford-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Berkeley-Jefferson- 400 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of Virginia, including the following areas, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Southern Fauquier, Stafford and Western Loudoun and panhandle West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley and Jefferson. * WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Area creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more heavy rain. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move gradually northward through the area through this evening. While not as widespread as yesterday, isolated rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in a one to two hour period. Should these rainfall amounts occur over sensitive or urban areas, flash flooding is possible.

And an elevated excessive rainfall risk: Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook

The latest AFD from LWX: (bolding mine) .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned upper low will continue to drift northeastward toward the area tomorrow, and will eventually become centered overhead during the day on Wednesday. A steady rain will continue through much of the morning tomorrow within the zone of large scale ascent downstream of the approaching upper low. As we work into the afternoon hours, a mid-level dry slot may start to work in from the southwest, which may allow for a few breaks of sun and some limited surface heating/development of surface based instability. If this occurs, thunderstorms may start to develop within the dry slot and lift northward into the area during the late afternoon/evening hours. These thunderstorms may be capable of producing heavier rainfall rates, and may potentially lead to some instances of flooding. The earlier issued Flood Watch was expanded to include all of the WV Panhandle, most of Northern Virginia, and Allegany County in Maryland. A general 2-4 inches of rain is expected by late Tuesday night across the watch area, with localized higher totals along the eastern facing slopes of the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies, where upslope southeasterly flow should enhance totals. Further north and east, rainfall totals are expected to be slightly lower, but an instance or two of flooding can`t be completely ruled out. The steadier rain should come to an end from southwest to northeast during the second half of the night, with the Flood Watch ending as well late Tuesday night.

Severe thunderstorm watch to the south and southwest. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 650 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-015-033-047-049-061-065-075-079-085-087-091-099-109-113- 125-137-139-145-153-157-165-171-177-179-187-540-630-660-683-685- 760-790-820-150500- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0139.250414T2250Z-250415T0500Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE AUGUSTA CAROLINE CULPEPER CUMBERLAND FAUQUIER FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND GREENE HANOVER HENRICO HIGHLAND KING GEORGE LOUISA MADISON NELSON ORANGE PAGE POWHATAN PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLOTTESVILLE FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK RICHMOND STAUNTON WAYNESBORO $$

From the 2 pm NWS discussion... (snip) Well below normal temperatures are expected tonight through Wednesday morning, dropping 15 to 25 degrees below normal. Below is a list of record daily low temperatures for April 9. Site Record (year set) Washington DC area (DCA) 28 F (1972, 1917, 1896) Baltimore MD area (BWI) 26 F (2007) Baltimore Downtown MD area (DMH) 28 F (1972) Sterling-Dulles Airport VA area (IAD) 23 F (1977) Annapolis MD area (NAK) 23 F (1972) Hagerstown MD area (HGR) 21 F (1972) Martinsburg WV area (MRB) 20 F (1972) Charlottesville VA area (CHO) 26 F (2007) (snip)

NWS is starting to roll out the 18Z GPS guidance.

Lost power overnight near Crystal City, got iit back a bit after 5 am.

Already on maple leaf watch (most of the buds have split into 2).

During Snowmageddon 2010, my Hill of Doom got a workout. Some of the sliders had to be stopped before going off the plateau and go down the next steep and try to crash into I-395.

As much as I've griped about shelling out $$, I'd rather have a foot of s*** than ANY i**. Things can be delivered in the first case (and shoveled away). The other case may involve accidents. May all the s***-lovers have all they desire.

Can Yoda (or someone else) please explain which model has half its members calling for 6 or more?

Remember: Some of us have to pay to be shoveled out. I'm NOT happy about the GFS caving. May it all go to sea south of Hatteras.