arlwx12

Not so fast... Winter 2025-2026 forecast from NOAA. See maps, snow explanation. Winter is coming − but how cold is it going to be? Federal forecasters from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave us their answer Oct. 16 in their annual winter outlook. According to the forecast, a warmer-than-average winter is most likely across the southern tier of the nation, as well as in California and along much of the East Coast and Florida. Colder-than-normal conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and across the upper Midwest. As for snow and rain, the northern Rockies and Great Lakes region are most likely to see plenty of precipitation this winter, the Climate Prediction Center said. However, a drier-than-average winter is expected along the nation's southern tier, especially in the Southeast. (snip) Gottschalck said that warmer-than-normal temperatures are most likely for California, the southern Great Basin, the southern Rockies, the Southwest eastward to Texas, the Southeast and the coastal mid-Atlantic.(snip) ((but Accuweather dissents:)) AccuWeather also released its winter forecast earlier in October, and the private forecaster said that a "bookend winter" is on tap for the central and eastern U.S., with the biggest storms expected around the opening and the final weeks of the season. "It can be an intense stormy winter for areas of the country, particularly across the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and parts of the mid-Atlantic," AccuWeather lead long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. (snip)

Fox Weather seems to be sold on a coastal low, but LWX is still uncertain about impact on this area. From the 9 am forecast: (snip) A coastal low will deepen off the southeast U.S. coastline Friday night into Saturday as a deep, closed upper low simultaneously drifts southeastward across the Great Lakes. Eventually, these two systems will interact as the coastal low feels the northward pull of the induced southerly winds ahead of the upper low. This interaction will eventually draw the coastal low northward toward the Mid-Atlantic, with most guidance showing the coastal low tracking northward off the Carolina coast Saturday into Saturday night. This interaction between the closed upper low and the coastal low is a very delicate one, and will be very difficult for forecast models to get correct this far out in time. As a result, there is a much higher than normal amount of uncertainty regarding the details of the forecast this weekend. In terms of sensible weather, chances for showers and also winds will be on the increase locally Saturday afternoon, and especially Saturday night into Sunday (covered below in the Long Term discussion). Just how much rain we see and how strong the winds get will depend on the ultimate track of the low, which remains uncertain at this time horizon. (snip)

Updated freeze and frost warnings. National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1158 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 MDZ003-VAZ028-030-031-WVZ051>053-100000- /O.UPG.KLWX.FR.Y.0010.251010T0600Z-251010T1300Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.FZ.W.0003.251010T0600Z-251010T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 1158 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Washington County. In Virginia, Clarke, Frederick VA, and Warren Counties. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Jefferson, and Morgan Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday. National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1158 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 MDZ004>006-507-VAZ039-040-051-501-502-505-100000- /O.CON.KLWX.FR.Y.0010.251010T0600Z-251010T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-Madison- Rappahannock-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- 1158 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Carroll, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, and Northwest Harford Counties. In Virginia, Culpeper, Northern Fauquier, Southern Fauquier, Western Loudoun, Madison, and Rappahannock Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.

Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 545 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern District of Columbia... South Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Arlington County in northern Virginia... Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Bethesda... Vienna... Pimmit Hills... Mclean... American Legion Bridge... Fort Totten... Potomac... Oakton... Tysons Corner... Takoma Park... Wolf Trap... Great Falls... Chevy Chase... Martin`s Additions... North Chevy Chase... Friendship Village... American University... Georgetown... Adams Morgan...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 449 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... South Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... West Central Arlington County in northern Virginia... Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The Northwestern City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 449 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 30 minutes. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Rockville... Bethesda... Reston... Herndon... Fairfax... Vienna... Falls Church... Pimmit Hills... American Legion Bridge... Mclean... Potomac... North Bethesda... Oakton... North Potomac... Tysons Corner... Wolf Trap... Great Falls... Merrifield... I66 and I495 Interchange...

Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 513 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Fairfax County in northern Virginia... South Central Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 30 minutes. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Centreville... Bull Run... Sudley... Catharpin... Woolsey...

DCA was reporting 1.1" so far, while the Four Mile Run USGS gauge claimed about 1.4".

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 544 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... District of Columbia... South Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Arlington County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 544 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain will move across the warned area. Rain may have not started, but expected rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in 20 minutes are anticipated. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Pouring rain in the Crystal City area.

Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 254 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Western Arlington County in northern Virginia... Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The Northwestern City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... South central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Arlington County in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... The northern City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 330 PM EDT. * At 238 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Centreville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 221 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD... Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD... * Until 345 PM EDT. * At 220 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 16 nm northwest of Key Bridge to 12 nm northwest of Leesylvania State Park to 18 nm west of Aquia Creek, moving east at 20 knots.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1241 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... Central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... North central Culpeper County in northern Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of Sperryville, or 15 miles west of Warrenton, moving east at 15 mph.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 212 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-016>018-504-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502- 505>508-526-527-141415- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0012.250614T1800Z-250615T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 212 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Calvert, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Prince Georges and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick VA, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Northwest Prince William, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through this afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rainfall, with rainfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches possible within an hour or two. Storms may also train over the same areas, causing the possibility for locally higher amounts around to 5 inches of rain within a few hours. Heavy rainfall in a short period of time combining with already saturated soils means that creeks and streams may rapidly rise out of their banks along with the potential for flash flooding in urban areas.

lash Flood Warning DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-510-610-140400- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0033.250614T0011Z-250614T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 811 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Arlington County in northern Virginia... Northern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until midnight EDT tonight. * At 811 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected t