StruThiO

Oddball year with a springtime THC collapse

Lid's coming off

Yeah because we are in a strong El Nino just like 2009!!! Surely there hasn't been record strong Pacific trades, the lowest MEI ever observed except during the La Nina of 2010, historically low ONI etc etc etc etc etc.........................

Buy low; sell high. My $MDR calls about to print big boy bucks :]

k. meanwhile

Eastern subtropics exhibits a positive correlation, in the domain of the AMO horseshoe. Western and central subtropics exhibits a far weaker correlation, so you can't group the entire subtropics as one whole like this.

This feels like 2019, lol. MDR was a Sahara; comically dry from the Caribbean to Cape Verde, only through the C name and DEAD until late August.. but then what happened? Dorian happened.

At least he taught me a new word today - "vamoose"

Agree; the modoki look will get shredded once this new upwelling KW propagates to the point of emergence. Will very much look classic again then until the transition away in Winter begins IMO

frankly none of us fixate on operational GFS 300-h forecasts quite like this

Trades are only going to continue to rip as the MJO circles back to p4/5..

Don't really have words for what we are witnessing.. I don't think I've seen anything quite like this before..

The record-strong easterly wind stress has now resulted in the incredible initiation of an extremely potent upwelling Kelvin wave.

It's July

Well, this does seems likely; after 3 years of La Nina it is likely to have exhausted itself and the El Nino response will probably initiate in Winter thru Spring 23

It's July

Yeah surely 1080h will verify! 100% confidence

Totally normal. June + July combined don't even account for 10% of climatological hurricane activity. Here's a gif of monthly 500mb heights, long term mean, 1991-2020 climo. Observe the yearly maxima in ridging in July. This is why right now is the peak of Saharan dust season (and also season cancel season). It's also why August onwards constitute about 93% of climatological hurricane activity.

Also, this is demonstrably incorrect. Thanks for playing, though!

It's July It's July It's July It's July

It's July 17th. If you want to buckle down on what ECONUS mid-level flow will be like on August 17th from what it looks like today, least I remind folks that 2004 saw a very similar pattern in July during a -ENSO. Even our first major hurricane got hooked right into a strong mid-August trough. Then the pattern flipped and all hell broke loose. Interestingly, there was a pretty active June-July in the EPAC that year even with a -ENSO in place. Of course, again, it shut down and an epic WAR/AMO took over by August 31st. That does not mean we'll see a similar outcome, but clearly NINO 4 is bottoming out again and +PNA ridging may not last until the end of Summer. Minor correction but 2004 was an El Nino year. The import is still very true, as usual weenies gonna weenie

We will see hurricanes but probably not that 2017-esque. Also I wouldn't trust GFS as far as I can throw it

how can i get your weenie tag

PDO is a regression of North Pacific SSTs. While the "horseshoe" region has warmed, the area extending east of Japan is still blazing hot and is anomalously warmer than the horseshoe. This still yields a net negative PDO, even after the recent warming. June will still be solidly negative although higher than this Spring. Definitely bullish on a flip to +PDO along with onset of El Nino.. finally.. around Spring 2023. The El Nino response to this will take time.. but I think could result in the strongest since 2015. Moderate to strong. We are due