Saguaro

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean we could bring the heat back. 

It's just that this modeling persistence to block/shun it S, consummately correcting late mid/ext into backing NW continental flow after July's,  that has a recent multi-year precedence/repetition. That circumstantially tends to coax one into believing we're just destined to the same muted later summer.

I began noticing that trend in the summer of 2013. That year there was early heat and humidity, then lights out around mid July and the season was finished. Ever since then it seems NE (more so our favorite labradorian portion) has been struggling almost every summer to get sustained heat, and then once August hits it's over.

It's even been an unusual year out this way, the monsoon is going gangbusters. Today's been overcast and intermittent light rain and we're going to be some 30 degrees below normal for highs, only mid 70s when our typical high is around 105.

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

First sunny day in weeks and effing smoke screws it up. Only #summer2021.

Another hallmark of a summer that's gone well beyond salvageable. I've seen it before, the ridge sets up in a strategic position upstream (usually somewhere in Canada) and those places bake with true summer conditions for weeks while NE is plagued with constant wet, cool, damp conditions. Then when NE finally catches a break and gets a chance at real summer weather, it gets scuttled by smoke thanks to that persistent upstream ridge that's made things ripe for wildfires.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know it

It's been weird. I really don't recall a single BD in April that really could qualitatively be one, and maybe vaguely one in May.  June maybe but it was so overwhelmingly warm if not hot, it really if so its not the same as this - not even close all three of those months put together.

There's been at least five acceleration events like what you see there on the vis imagery ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The weird part about it it? There's no S/W moving SE out of Ontario. Heights are 582 godDAM NE of Caribou.   It's almost the weight of cooler saturated air alone that's doing this.  That boundary is moving unusually slowly too - creeping

I didn't realize there had been five in the last three weeks, insane especially for July. It never ceases to amaze me the numerous ways summer can be thwarted in the northeastern part of NE, and even in the situation where there are no foreseeable ways, a phantom one will be invented.

7 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

Pictures starting to come in on FB. This is from Belchertown FD. Several roads are "gone."

Reminds me of the spring of 2006 or 2008 in western ME. Those scenes were commonplace. To this very day there are still some bridges in towns like Sebago and Waterford that were never fixed and the roads turned into permanent dead ends.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You can see this warm front just reversed and became a BD collapsing back SW of Boston as an undercutting on vis loop -

that's ball game on Sunday July 18, 2021 for eastern zones. 

How many of these so far this month? You know summer's shot when there's more of these in July than April.

47 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Best summer ever.

It gives me the summer of 96 kind of feeling. Ever since that last heat event near the end of June it seems it's just been downright horrid for summer in NE. My former haunt in NNE near IZG hasn't gotten nearly the amount of rain SNE has had, but it's still been quite miserable for summer standards - no need to even use AC for 3 weeks. When the PC has no 80s for the entire forecast period in July, you know it's time to throw in the towel and "better luck next year," given how short the season is in that part of NNE.

It's not just the gloom, but the constant rain makes going outside miserable because of all the biting bugs. I've noticed through some years of observations that a stronger WAR isn't always the best thing for summer, it seems all the parameters have to line up just right for that to happen, otherwise it ends up inviting the kind of misery of the last few weeks as NE sits in the battleground. The better choice in that case is the constant NW flow with canadian HPs because at least then, while the dewpoints won't be reflective of summer, there will be lots more sunshine.

Even here in AZ it's been kind of an odd July, we've been struggling to hit 100 as of late and the other day we could barely manage low 90s.

Not DV but over in this spot of AZ we've been hitting 110 or thereabouts the last few days. Currently under SVR warning for 70mph winds, we'll see if that one verifies.

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Only 1.5" here this week but looks like there's more moisture chances coming.  As I get older I've started despising warm season rain.  It's still a tug-of-war a bit but I can't explain it.  I love being outside at every chance possible during the longer daylight hours and rain seems to hinder that.  I feel like a retiree wanting to be in Arizona or something... just dry, sunshine, and long daylight.  Maybe we deal with too much cold season cloud/showery stuff, but this time of year I want to be outside in shorts and t-shirt wandering around.  I'm already semi-hoping the modeled rain in the next few days is diminished or not as steady/sustained.

I have much the same sentiments. There was nothing worse than having the weeks near the solstice being torpedoed by days and days of gloom. And the warm season is so short, at least it was in my part of NNE, we had basically a six week window of reliable summer: July 1 to August 15 or thereabouts. Anytime before July 1 is too fraught with the lingering spring risks of backdoor/ULL misery, and once into the second week of August we're getting those strong cold fronts barreling through so it becomes increasingly tough for the summer warmth to hang on. Thus, every day in that timeframe is precious and can be little afforded being stolen away by rain and gloom, the clock is relentlessly ticking.

Here in AZ though we don't get quite as long daylight near the solstice, given the lower latitude. The big difference is none of that lingering daylight well into the night because we have no DST, so sunsets are around 7:30.

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably not in the absolute sense, but geesh  - what the atmosphere has to pull off to do once, and get everyone to grouse like it's all the time.

lol

That said, the poster's post isn't without merit, entirely...  I just as well leave on April 3 and not return until May 20 ( end time negotiable too ) every year if I had my druthers.   This is April today

Yea, my point wasn't "this happens every July," it was more in reference to the weeks of misery that happen every spring. And most especially in eastern NNE. Often times the BD front/wf can hang up right at the NH/MA border while areas to the NE of that are mired in the murk and shut out of the summer airmass.

30 minutes ago, radarman said:

To be fair today may well tie the monthly low high temp at Boston and 3rd place at ORH, so it's not like this happens often.   Summer in New England is basically gold.  4/1-5/15 or 10/15-12/1 are the trying times IMO

Point taken, it's not a regular occurrence in July but it still happened a handful of times during my years in NNE. Your 4/1 to 5/15 misery window, I would have to change the 5/15 to 6/20 or thereabouts on the coastal plain (south of the mountains) of NNE. SNE escapes it a lot better most of the time.

Things like this debacle are exactly why I had to get out of new england. It just wears you down after enough time. Even July isn't safe from these type of disasters. IZG currently sitting at 55, egads. I've also noticed the aforementioned trend this year of the score having to be vindictively settled after a round of impressive heat. I haven't been keeping close tabs on the pacific NW, but I wonder if they've had to/will pay in a similar way after that historic run they just had?

Back in AZ now and I'll take our 103/83 over that 58/55 misery any day.

After yesterday's overnight low of 78, IZG dropped to 75 near midnight, one of those "cheap" end of day low temps. Impressively, they're already almost 90 (88) at 9am. Depending on potential cloud issues, 100 might be in play today.

IZG with the low of 78 overnight, fairly impressive. Been dealing with copious amounts of clouds today that have really put the damper on high temp potential. Upstream satellite shows plenty more en route plus developing storms in NH. This is one of the many typical unforeseen flies in the ointment that work to derail heat waves from either verifying (3 day rule) or realizing their full potential in this region - it's always a constant battle with many moving parts.

Still an impressive day despite the issues. Temperature has been going between low to mid 90s. Not anything close to IZG's 98, that area and bordering north conway have a better ability to maximize heat. 12z GFS already hard at work to minimize next week's heat potential.

Weekend still looks dicey but better than earlier runs. I'll be back in AZ where monsoon season's gotten underway, so we'll be getting the 102/83 type days with afternoon and evening storms.

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Tuesday morning, in fact, I wonder if elevated/record high-minimums may be in trouble that dawn.  Light west wind over, through a landscape bathed the previous day in insolation will help maintain fully thermally charged hydrostatic thickness, in a situation where the initial conditional potential are huge in that regard.  This should reflect in temperature stalls at exceptionally high values - even relative to heat wave climo for our area of the country.  The over-arcing synoptic ordeal's significance ( I believe ) may be eclipsed by the Portland specter.  We are approaching 600 dam just S of LI.   One can only imagine what would be if Sonoran heat injection got caught up inside this thing -

Anyway I could see Logan and LGA not falling below 84 F, perhaps not 90 until 1 or 2 am.  interesting.

The last time that sticks out in my mind for high overnight mins, at least in this area of NNE was the evening before the day of that tornado outbreak in 2011. The night prior we were still well into the 80s near midnight. 2011 was quite the memorable summer, kicked off by that outbreak, then the triple digit heat in July, followed by Irene in August.

Just now, powderfreak said:

Talk about whiplash.  That's wild.  Folks will be putting winter jackets on in the 50s after 95-100F.

Looks like the typical new england spring atlantic special type temps, but not in the usual coastal plain places. What a disaster.

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

A bit of a different story on the midcoast...aside from a touch of humidity, a top 10–maybe 15.  Sunny, 77*.

Indeed, from what I've observed it seems very tough to get above lower 80s in that area, all the stars have to align just right. IZG up to 91.4 now with the dewpoint starting to mix out (66 ->  62), 86 here.

Summer heat finally making a return today in western ME after being delayed by extensive cloud cover the past two days. This wasn't initially picked up by the models, the fly in the ointment being that sudden weak low forming off the carolinas Thursday night and making the move up the coast on Friday.

Currently sitting at mid 80s with abundant sunshine. IZG soared to upper 80s by 11am but has since seemingly hit a ceiling at 89.6. It appears the tail end of the heat is getting trimmed back a bit as well compared to the earlier runs. Par for the course for heat waves here from my previous years living in this area. The summers that bucked that trend were 2002 and 1999. If the GFS is right, the extensive overcast gloom returns Thursday and won't finally vacate the area until Tuesday evening. Yeesh. I'll be making the trip back to AZ before that time.

Most of my time visiting here the past month has actually been quite decent by June standards, with exception to the memorial weekend disaster. Nothing quite like stepping out of the airport and getting smacked in the face by labradorian marine tainted 40s after being acclimated to 100/70.

WPC has Tip's retrograding warm front