Saguaro

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Crazy 10 day QPF.  Not sure I remember ever seeing zilch for entire states like VT/NH on 10-day QPF map.

Wow that looks like 10-day QPF maps here most of the time. The last time I can remember a rain-free stretch that long in Maine was the omega block "high over low" situation that lasted a good chunk of April back in 2013. Near the end of it, with all the dirt roads around dust clouds were being kicked up like the Dukes of Hazzard. Certainly not the typical April expectation, it was a welcomed respite.

I can say that the heat which is building out here this go around is the highest of the season thus far. We've hit 97 today and expecting the first 100 of the year tomorrow. GFS 850 temps over ME next week show some rare 18-19Cs. Tough to get those into ME even in summer.

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That map will posted is great . 45 in Bos 50 in Tolland and 80 in Ithica 

here's another

 

55 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I really miss that PDfamily wx site and their mesomap.

Yea I don't know what happened to it. One day the data just quit working and it never got fixed after that.

One thing that still takes a bit to get used to here vs NE is how low the dewpoints can crash after a frontal passage. The other day when the ridge that had us in the 90s for a few days began migrating to the east coast, we had a frontal passage that took the dewpoint from low 40s to 5 below zero. It was startling how cold it felt, even though it was in the upper 60s, it was light jacket weather. I always figured that once you hit the 30s in dewpoints it was diminishing returns for how it affected the perception of warmth.

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

Pushing 90F in NE NJ

Yeesh. Horror show. So many times this kind of thing happened in the springs and well into the summers too when I lived in ME. Here's memorabilia from another one circa May 2012.

The ridge that will eventually (hopefully?) be migrating out that way is establishing itself over us at the moment. Today's high was right around 90. We had our first 90s of the season about a week and a half ago. Rest of this week:

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 93. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 64. Breezy, with a northeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 94. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 63. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 97. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph after midnight.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 97. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.

On Sunday it starts moving out of here. Next week will be much cooler with 70s.

 

On 4/4/2022 at 2:53 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... who was I mentioning this too - can't remember.   But there's probably like 1::12 or 1::9 type of return rate on median passable Aprils, otherwise, the more common rendition falls beneath whatever 'median' is in this context - so some subjectivity to that.  I don't think 3 days nicking 70, while the other 20 some odd days are < 60 ... ass loads of cold rain...  NE wind days ... putrid car top slush, saves any face for example. 

I've just been wilted too many times. I'm not going to stick the flower of optimism out there ever again for this piece of shit climate anus that seems to shit in your bed in direct deliberate proportion to said optimism.  Like I said last page or two ago, you count on the BDF screwing it up, whether it is on the model or not, in a scenario like that next week.  Then, it's a daily elimination game to remove having one occur, day by day.

You really have the best way of wording the unique experience of eastern new england's climate. I say that as someone who endured the same misery there for many, many failed springs and summers. I watched that same elimination game carry well into summer, and forecasted heat waves get continually trimmed back on both the front and backside until, as mentioned it was basically a transient warm sector for 24-48 hours.

 

On 4/4/2022 at 2:56 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Having said that... May 2005 is still the worst month that has ever happened in the space-time continuum existence of this planet.   Ironically... no April has ever been that bad.

I remember there being a particularly miserably, cold, rainy period in mid to late May 2002 before the pattern suddenly and dramatically reversed in early June, going on to be a summer for the ages. It wasn't as bad as that 2005 stretch but it was memorable. Maybe more so in Maine than the rest of NE.

 

On 4/4/2022 at 6:19 PM, eekuasepinniW said:

peepers on 4/4 wtf 

I heard them out in southwest CT back in mid March when talking to a friend of mine who lives there.

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

If that's the case, That would be 2hrs sooner then forecast, NWS had them flipping by 03z.

It's showing 33.8 for temp so I don't think it's sticking yet. Last four updates showing -SN

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KIZG&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

IZG has gone over to snow now

 

I've been checking IZG obs and they're still raining. I think they're getting close though, dewpoint has been dropping and the temp is now down to 35. I thought lowering ceilings might offer a clue but they've been bouncing around. GYX forecast is 12-18"

 

Still -4, actually dropped to -5 for a bit within the last hour.

 

-4 currently in the western Maine Bridgton area. Will be going from this to mid 70s in AZ tomorrow.

 

Sleet and freezing rain have commenced in the Bridgton ME area. Temps in the lower 20s.

Yesterday's event in the Bridgton ME area began as a burst of snow that amounted to a heavy coating, followed by freezing rain for a few hours. Little to no icing. It doesn't appear there was any additional snow overnight. Tomorrow's event looks well south and minimal impact this far north.

 

I've been back in Maine for Christmastime. This was a very rare year where there wasn't a grinch storm for Christmas. Instead there was a snow event on Christmas day as well as a few minor events in the preceding week. It does seem very difficult to keep rain at bay for the Christmas to New Year stretch, and sure enough there were some rain events the week after Christmas as well as New Years day. In the meantime, back in AZ the same time period had a very gloomy, chilly and damp stretch which rivaled the typical late May pattern in Maine. The Phoenix area even got down near freezing last weekend.

Today's event has begun as snow with those anomalously large flakes that warn of warming in the upper levels and imply an imminent switch to sleet and freezing rain. Heading back to AZ tomorrow, where the pattern has greatly improved to clear skies with highs in the lower 70s. Someone at the NWS there sounds like springtime powderfreak, focusing on the large diurnal spreads:
 

Quote

`Quiet` best summarizes our weather for the next few days. 12Z
Sounding data from across the west reveals a strong jet streak at
500mb entering OR and N CA. Arizona and SoCal will sit to the
south of this feature, beneath the influence of flat ridging and
surface high pressure. Light boundary layer winds, dry air, and
clear skies are allowing for pretty substantial diurnal
temperature swings - as much as 35 to 40 degrees across rural
deserts.

According to the NBM, the chance of reaching 70F at Sky Harbor
climb from nil on Wednesday to 60% Friday afternoon. However, this
guidance (specifically for PHX) is about 2F too cool as of this
writing, and was biased a bit cool yesterday as well. A little
over-performance won`t surprise me too much the next couple
afternoons. Bottom line, expect to need that jacket in the
mornings, and maybe a pair of shorts by mid-afternoon!

 

14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2019 was pretty impressive. ORH had a high of 1F. Had to go back to 1994 to get that. Even Jan 2004 didn’t beat that. 

I've never seen anything which has topped that Jan 1994 arctic outbreak. We had a solid week of single digit highs in southwest CT at the time, while I believe the Burlington VT area couldn't get above zero for that duration.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jv0ovzETWug?&t=84s

6 hours ago, Saguaro said:

These past three days, IZG has been warmer than the Phoenix AZ area:

10/12
KIZG: 78
KFFZ: 68

10/13
KIZG: 81
KFFZ: 74

10/14 so far
KIZG: 78
KFFZ: 72

Today's highs ended up being:

KIZG: 79

KFFZ: 77

Tomorrow's forecast calls for mid 80s at FFZ and mid 60s at IZG, so this stretch looks like it's over.

These past three days, IZG has been warmer than the Phoenix AZ area:

10/12
KIZG: 78
KFFZ: 68

10/13
KIZG: 81
KFFZ: 74

10/14 so far
KIZG: 78
KFFZ: 72

FFW out for nw cumberland and se oxford ME counties. It's pouring like the monsoon storms in AZ right now.

 

A surprisingly nice day today in western ME after it looked to be wall to wall gloom through the weekend. Upper 70s and very breezy. The low marine crap cleared out around noon and the dewpoints mixed down once the wind came up. It's oddly reminiscent of a cold frontal passage even though we're supposed to be in the warm sector.

As for the July laments, I have to say that southern AZ went through similar times that month with much above normal precip and well below normal highs.

 

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Posted by Jeff not me, but very impressive.

oops. For some reason I thought it was you.

Yea that's what I figured but was motivated to take a look after seeing tamarack's pictures

 

I'm back in western ME for a few weeks, very close to Waterford. I drove around there yesterday in the midpoint of the TOR polygon looking for any signs of damage and came up empty for the most part. Chances are it's pretty localized and I just didn't run across anything. I don't know if GYX is planning a survey of the area.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

MEX for ASH on Wed has 95/69  ...

It's day 3.  Considering MOS damps daily anomalies with climate ...adding a tick or two onto the T side of that relationship implies a steamy sultry pairing ( heh ).    No but that would rival any of those mid 90s heat days we had back in June.   Thursday's not much relief 93/70 ..again, could be 95. 

Two big heat days back to back post Augie 20 isn't bad. 

If it weren't for these interruptions from the tropical systems, this could have been an impressive stretch for duration. BTV and Montreal both hit 90s yesterday away from all the clouds.

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

It's way back (1895) but Maine sites hit low-mid (some upper) 90s on Sept 22-23 that year.

Don't forget the heat event in September 2002 which had some upper 90s days, at least in western ME.

IZG managed 89.6 today. P&C says it won't get that warm again through the end of the period. Henri is probably going to be a nonevent up that way.

16 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Did you retire out there or something? Jealous. 

Semi-retired, still work on some projects here and there. After my first experience living in the southwest for a few years, I never wanted to go back to the New England climate, so I knew this was always going to be my home eventually.

 

15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I see a definitive pattern change on the way. The hemisphere moves away from the anomalous R-wave ridge-trough .. to something- not sure the models/ens means know where to go really.  That look out there almost seems like a waiting pattern for a signal to re-emerge, or assert anew either way. Either way, I don't see a longitudinal ridge along and S of 40 N as being very stable.  I also find it interesting that some recent operational Euro and GFS are signaling another retrograde warm front event, similar to what transpired once or twice back in June - in both occasions, preceding a WAR retrograde.

I wonder if it will be something that at least tries to salvage the small remainder of summer, or if it ends up more like that horrid July period where NE gets hosed.

Just checked the P&C for my former western ME location: 60s and low 70s for the entire period. Yeesh. Yea this summer is beyond shot back that way, though that writing was on the wall once July began. I didn't think that that first June heat event would be as hot as it ever got for the season, though some previous seasons in the past have behaved similarly enough that it's by no means unprecedented at this point. I recall getting groceries in North Conway during the warmest day in June and it was pretty legit heat, to the point of me noticing the similarity to my daily experiences in AZ.