WolfStock1

4 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Delete this

2 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

LOL I used to live off that road, closer to the beltway though. Miss the old Arby's (that was totally out of place) in town.

They haven't run the brine trucks out here yet in Loudoun (by me anyways) but I'm sure they're starting to.

I'm kinda worried about temps for this one, I'm north of the jackpot zone, but I think accumulation-wise (by sunset or so) areas north of the jackpot might be about even by that point.

I live near a creek bed / valley and it's typically 5-10 degrees below fcst for that area and other spots locally, so I'm hoping it piles up tomorrow.

Are brining in Leesburg

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

Wright Weather. 

I still have, and use, a link to the Wright Weather "radar forecast".   Not sure where is the actual source but that's the only place I know of it existing.

http://hp5-dev.wright-weather.com/nam-conus-radar-loop_1hour.gif

Herndon changed from mix to heavy snow now

Heavy mix in Herndon now - mostly rain

(Sigh)  Here we go again.  Hasn't rained for a couple of weeks now, and nothing in the forecast.

Side note - why does NOAA keep moving the rainfall history map on their website?   I bookmark it, and it's soon gone.

Can't find it now.   The bookmark I had:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

now brings up river gauges instead, even though the URL specifically contains "precip".   You can add in some kind of precip info via checkbox, but it's pretty useless.

13 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

I’ve seen a list on wiki of normalized costs for hurricanes, I.e. how much damage a hurricane would cause if it hit today. I’m not sure how complete it is though. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Costliest_U.S._Atlantic_hurricanes_by_wealth_normalization

Very interesting.   Would be curious to see the methodology behind it; what "societal conditions" means.   Ideally it would account not only for inflation, but specifically inflation in housing and businesses (generally higher than headline inflation, which is just consumer goods), as well as not only the increasing crowded-ness of coastal areas but also the "luxury" factor of more luxury real estate construction on the coast.    Overall the chart seems about right actually.

13 hours ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Not to mention FEMA is having to pull out of places in NC bc an armed militia is actively hunting them.    

Blown WAY out of proportion.   There were no militia "actively hunting" FEMA - it was one guy who made some verbal threats, and he's been arrested.

HIllsborough river NE of Tampa at record level:

7 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Did any station verify 120mph sustained winds?  No buoys did.

 

Is this a common theme with most storms?

Part of the problem is that all the buoys that were near they eye were all out of commission.  :-(

Closet one was Venice, which looked like this:

Give that though - one would have thought that Venice would have registered a lot more than 62 mph sustained, given that it was pretty much at the eye wall.   Only thing I can figure is that it's because these are so close to the water or land - the wind levels are lower due to surface friction.  

31 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Believe there’s some nuance to this data based on this gauge location. Looks to be exposed to a north wind. The three other Tampa Bay gauges all are running many feet BELOW normal, as the ocean has evacuated towards Tampa Bay’s mouth.

Yeah I could see that.   I noticed that the other gauges were still low, but just figured it was because the new surge hadn't reached them yet.

Fat lady hasn't sung yet on the surge in Tampa Bay.

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Must be some flooding coming from the bay into eastern St Pete area. There’ll be over 12” rain across that whole area. 

Having lived in FL - heavy rain like that is always going to cause some flooding - the water just doesn't drain off that well since everything is so flat.   It's especially exacerbated if there is damage to a storm drain, which there probably is in some areas right now.

NWS advisory is super-late - wonder why?

Port Manatee - south side of Tampa Bay - is actually seeing a *reverse* surge!

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I have to say, the tornadoes are going to be memorable for a lot of inland folks. Lets hope the surge doesn’t upstage what’s already a high end outbreak. 

As bad as the inland tornado outbreak has been, I'm afraid the surge is still going to be the biggest disaster with Milton. Most of us knew the timing of landfall would coincide with a degraded core and transition, but the sea heights aren't just going to magically disappear. Sea height and fetch has already been acquired, and areas south of the circulation will be inundated. We don't need a thick/intense southern eyewall band either. Strong surface winds perpendicular to the peninsula shoreline will be aided by the low-level jet to push the fetch onshore south of Milton's circulation center. The surge threat is high for a reason regardless of landfall intensity and why evacuations were needed.

I think the big saving grace is how early it's coming in.  Highest tide isn't until 6am tomorrow.   Right now the tides are fairly low, so the surge effects will be lessened quite a bit.

Surge starting at Port Manatee gauge:

I notice that a couple of important NOAA buoys went offline just now - sometime today.   Maybe loss of comms due to the storm?

Those two were online earlier.   One of them was a good wave-level indicator, so it stinks to not have that data!

Anyone know why?   It seems like they're far away enough from the storm that they wouldn't be losing comms at this point.

Speaking as someone with a relative that won't evacuate - it's purely mental.   When danger comes - people want security, and for many older people security means one and only one thing - home.   It's not about losing possessions - it's about being home in a time of crisis - even if home is the most *dangerous* place to be.

The logic cannot be reasoned with - but there it is.

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I was down in Sarasota this past spring. The bay there is very high even just at high tide. The entire downtown will be underwater. 
 

the construction downtown is pretty new so I would imagine structural damage would be limited even with cat 3 winds. That’s one saving grace, most of the development on the west coast is new and in accordance with the better building codes. Obviously the immediately shoreline will be wrecked, but the newer construction should be fine

I believe downtown was underwater even with just Helene - so it certainly will be with MIlton yes.

The biggest heartbreak there is going to be that much of the "Old Florida" in the area is going to be gone after this storm.   As you mentioned a lot will be due to lesser building codes of years past; in particular all the houses were closer to sea level, and also lots of them wood frame instead of cinder block.

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well I had no idea my post in the main tropical thread would be that popular lol. It’s nice to add value.  

Well, to be honest I didn't even realize there was a specific tropical thread!   I usually just follow the regional boards, which lead me to this thread.   Was wondering why it seemed so quiet here!   Thanks for pointing that out.

I got that tidbit about the eye size from an X post - I'm guessing it came indirectly from you.   LOL.

Nice that it weakened some overnight.   Latest report shows it being flat though and maybe starting to strength.  145 mph winds earlier; now 150 mph.

Incredibly compact eye last night.   Saw at one point the eye was only 3.5 miles wide.

Mrs. J - hope your relatives made it to a good destination last night.

My in-laws are hunkering down in Bradenton - in evac zone B  :-(  They are in a house that's rated for Cat 3 at least, is boarded up and at 18' above sea level, they have multiple generators with lots of food and fuel.   So - fingers crossed and prayers for them.   It's going to be a wild ride.

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

This thing keeps having interesting historic aspects. 

 

Wow - that is amazing.

 

 

8 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

There has been much discussion of a still high storm surge in a significantly weakening former Cat 4 or 5 hurricanes in the GOM. Aside from the obvious Katrina example, here are three other notable examples:

Opal (1995)- 130 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 10-15 ft in the Navarre Beach to Destin area, FL

Lili (2002)- 125 kt peak weakened to 80 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 12 ft near Calumet and Vermillion Bay, LA 

Rita (2005)- 155 kt peak weakened to 100 kt at landfall with a storm surge of 15 ft at Cameron, LA

In comparison, Ian (2022) had a maximum storm surge of 10-15 ft centered at Ft. Myers Beach as a 130 kt landfall. It looks like Milton's storm surge will really be building as its wind field expands most dramatically on Wednesday. 

Yeah was wondering about that - if a storm strengthens and then weakens - does the storm surge remain at a higher value; sounds like you're confirming that yes it does.

This does not bode well for the barrier islands there - Anna Maria down through Lido and even Siesta Key.   A lot of that is going to be wiped out.   I really hope that everyone gets off those islands.