WolfStock1

7 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I'm surprised this coastal low off NC coast isn't going tropical. 

This is showing winds of 66 kph - so it's fast enough.

13 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX.

Interesting.   

Well, I know it's not tropical, but it is now showing winds up to 66 kph:

Surprised the system right off NC isn't showing up on anyone's radar.   It seems to be quite close to tropical storm level, with winds about 55 kph.

Can't believe drought monitor only shows D0:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Seems a few days behind though.   

On 8/22/2025 at 3:09 PM, astarck said:

I posted this in the obs thread but DCA has a good chance at having the driest August on record.

No rain predicted through the end of the month, so guessing it'll set that record.

This is killing me.   I've got some bare spots on the lawn that I'm trying to seed by taking advantage of the cooler weather - but having to sprinkle like crazy to get it to germinate.   No rain in sight - hope the well doesn't run dry.

Third year in a row we've had drought conditions during the fall overseed season.

With regards to AI -  I guess one question I would have for those who work in the field - do you find that you're using AI some, and if so in what capacity?

E.g. in software field I know sometimes an experienced person will ask ChatGPT "write me a program to do xxxx"; wondering if this kind of thing is being seen in meteorology; e.g. is AI doing some model analysis tasks that used to be done by a person?  

Hi all,

Posted this on the 101 forum, but figured I'd ask about it here since I'm sure there's more traffic here.   I'm wondering about career prospects for meteorology, and in particular what people's thoughts are on the impacts of AI, and on the political churn going on right now.   Any input is appreciated.

(Son is looking into the program at VT)

Hi all,

I wanted to ask about this general subject, since my son is looking into going into meteorology.   What are your general thoughts on the prospect of the future of meteorology, in terms of demand for meteorologists vs the supply of people coming out of school?

One thing I'm wondering about is the impact of AI.   It seems to be hitting some careers hard right now, in particular software and in general engineering - lots of articles about people having a hard time finding work coming out of college, as a lot of junior-level tasks are shifting to AI.

Also I know there's a lot of churn right now due to the political climate - NOAA/NWS cuts; though I imagine that will all be in the past 5 years from now when he's starting out; if anything that might be a good time to start as there may be a lot of holes being filled; at least that's my conjecture.

In general seems like a great field and a great way to serve the public, so I'm encouraging him in that regard.   Would hate it though if he ended up struggling if the field is going to be having a hard time career-wise though.

Thoughts appreciated.

4 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Delete this

2 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

LOL I used to live off that road, closer to the beltway though. Miss the old Arby's (that was totally out of place) in town.

They haven't run the brine trucks out here yet in Loudoun (by me anyways) but I'm sure they're starting to.

I'm kinda worried about temps for this one, I'm north of the jackpot zone, but I think accumulation-wise (by sunset or so) areas north of the jackpot might be about even by that point.

I live near a creek bed / valley and it's typically 5-10 degrees below fcst for that area and other spots locally, so I'm hoping it piles up tomorrow.

Are brining in Leesburg

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

Wright Weather. 

I still have, and use, a link to the Wright Weather "radar forecast".   Not sure where is the actual source but that's the only place I know of it existing.

http://hp5-dev.wright-weather.com/nam-conus-radar-loop_1hour.gif

Herndon changed from mix to heavy snow now

Heavy mix in Herndon now - mostly rain

(Sigh)  Here we go again.  Hasn't rained for a couple of weeks now, and nothing in the forecast.

Side note - why does NOAA keep moving the rainfall history map on their website?   I bookmark it, and it's soon gone.

Can't find it now.   The bookmark I had:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

now brings up river gauges instead, even though the URL specifically contains "precip".   You can add in some kind of precip info via checkbox, but it's pretty useless.

13 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

I’ve seen a list on wiki of normalized costs for hurricanes, I.e. how much damage a hurricane would cause if it hit today. I’m not sure how complete it is though. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Costliest_U.S._Atlantic_hurricanes_by_wealth_normalization

Very interesting.   Would be curious to see the methodology behind it; what "societal conditions" means.   Ideally it would account not only for inflation, but specifically inflation in housing and businesses (generally higher than headline inflation, which is just consumer goods), as well as not only the increasing crowded-ness of coastal areas but also the "luxury" factor of more luxury real estate construction on the coast.    Overall the chart seems about right actually.

13 hours ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Not to mention FEMA is having to pull out of places in NC bc an armed militia is actively hunting them.    

Blown WAY out of proportion.   There were no militia "actively hunting" FEMA - it was one guy who made some verbal threats, and he's been arrested.

HIllsborough river NE of Tampa at record level:

7 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Did any station verify 120mph sustained winds?  No buoys did.

 

Is this a common theme with most storms?

Part of the problem is that all the buoys that were near they eye were all out of commission.  :-(

Closet one was Venice, which looked like this:

Give that though - one would have thought that Venice would have registered a lot more than 62 mph sustained, given that it was pretty much at the eye wall.   Only thing I can figure is that it's because these are so close to the water or land - the wind levels are lower due to surface friction.  

31 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Believe there’s some nuance to this data based on this gauge location. Looks to be exposed to a north wind. The three other Tampa Bay gauges all are running many feet BELOW normal, as the ocean has evacuated towards Tampa Bay’s mouth.

Yeah I could see that.   I noticed that the other gauges were still low, but just figured it was because the new surge hadn't reached them yet.

Fat lady hasn't sung yet on the surge in Tampa Bay.

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Must be some flooding coming from the bay into eastern St Pete area. There’ll be over 12” rain across that whole area. 

Having lived in FL - heavy rain like that is always going to cause some flooding - the water just doesn't drain off that well since everything is so flat.   It's especially exacerbated if there is damage to a storm drain, which there probably is in some areas right now.

NWS advisory is super-late - wonder why?

Port Manatee - south side of Tampa Bay - is actually seeing a *reverse* surge!

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I have to say, the tornadoes are going to be memorable for a lot of inland folks. Lets hope the surge doesn’t upstage what’s already a high end outbreak. 

As bad as the inland tornado outbreak has been, I'm afraid the surge is still going to be the biggest disaster with Milton. Most of us knew the timing of landfall would coincide with a degraded core and transition, but the sea heights aren't just going to magically disappear. Sea height and fetch has already been acquired, and areas south of the circulation will be inundated. We don't need a thick/intense southern eyewall band either. Strong surface winds perpendicular to the peninsula shoreline will be aided by the low-level jet to push the fetch onshore south of Milton's circulation center. The surge threat is high for a reason regardless of landfall intensity and why evacuations were needed.

I think the big saving grace is how early it's coming in.  Highest tide isn't until 6am tomorrow.   Right now the tides are fairly low, so the surge effects will be lessened quite a bit.

Surge starting at Port Manatee gauge: