Cartier God

19 hours ago, brianc33710 said:

Would these "underratings" relate to insurance companies and/or aid groups that dole out more aid for 5s than 4s & dont want to give out more money? Im being serious, not a smart ass.....just want to make sure this comment isnt read the wrong way.

I think you have a misunderstanding of how insurance companies provide compensation for natural disasters. It’s based off the cost of insured losses, not EF rating.

5 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Thats decent placement on the SPCs part but maybe they shouldve enlarged moderate N & E and issue a High Risk where the Mod is?

The SPC did an excellent job forecasting this event, especially given short-term model guidance that day. It wasn't until around 16z Friday when the CAM runs began to catch on to the overperforming surface temps/dews and started to realize the nightmarish potential of that day. The SPC also did an amazing job with their timely and descriptive MDs as the event unfolded. It's easy to say that they could've gone with a high risk after everything is said and done, but given the model guidance and general expectations for Friday its fair to say that they did a fantastic job.

38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why do I not remember what this stands for lol? Warm & dry?

Warm air damming? lol

I got off work at 4 yesterday tired as hell and knowing I couldn’t make it to the thumb in time, so I took a nap and then I raced to meet the embedded supercell that dropped a tornado near White Lake. I stopped near Sylvan Lake just after the updraft occluded, but I still saw a grungy looking shelf with some cool striations. It was a decent chase but not as nice as the one I had on 6/26. 

This picture is of the tornado that hit Armada, from a friend of my girlfriend. Her house was ok but other houses on her street sustained damage. 

looks like a moderate tornado just passed to the north of mason city, illinois starting about 15 minutes ago. noticeable cc drop

CC drop directly southwest of Moundville, AL

selma population: 20,756

00z nam nest has much less vbv in the hodos tomorrow than the latest rap runs, i wonder if its underdoing it. definitely looking like a potential failure mode in addition to convection clogging the warm sector.

16 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

When was the last Moderate Risk?

this past saturday in the texas panhandle, march 13th

storm near claude texas is starting to strengthen

the second cell south of happy looks primed, inflow is much less obstructed than the main supercell. 

really solid event in east lansing, easily the biggest snowstorm ive seen since ghd 2. about 14.5 inches of snow on the ground, id say around 9 of that is from last night. went on a walk and saw snow drifts up to at least 2.5 feet.

small flake size here as the main band pushes north. good rates tho, already accumulating on the roads

kind of crazy for grr to have no WSWs out by now, especially with the model consensus going into this event. curious to see if they adjust

in like a day this shifted from looking like a 3-5" event here to potential for the strongest snowstorm of the winter. the nw trend really works wonders on my weenie. as much as i wanna lock in the weenie maps, 7 inches sounds good for my final call. 

if ur reading this i hope u get some snow dawg

ready 2 be heliosphered

main band pushing into ingham county now, light snow starting in east lansing

gonna have to take off my angrysummons brand noise cancelling headphones so i can listen for thundersnow tonight

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Here's the Euro kuchera map for the next week, which includes four systems (Thursday wave, weak Sat wave, better Sun wave, best Mon wave)

if this verifies im hitting up my ex

13 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Idiots can post that garbage. Buried where????

angrysummons you dont know me but im your biggest fan. for anyone wondering what my take is on any setup pls refer to this mans posts.

u guys are laughing now but this man is a future first ballot americanwx hall of famer just you wait

8 minutes ago, Brian D said:

No, it's my own creation. Sorry for the simple maps, tho. Not a graphics person. Just a simple paint program.

i thought i seen it all. mans fuked up in the crib makin models

final call for east lansing: 4 inches of love

6 inch call looking atrocious now. i gotta keep my head up tho im on the front lines of the weenie brigade

because i feel lucky my final call here is 6 inches. now time to pray for everything to move north

17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I know I know, but that version of the GFS is sus as can be.

yeah, v16 was weirdly bullish for southern mi for a while leading up to the last event. maybe im being a prisoner of the moment but i dont really have much faith in these runs.