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pcbjr

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    May Observations 2022

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Finally, lots of thunder and C to C but nary a drop of rain ... though I drove to the store a half mile away and water was standing everywhere ... almost rained IMBY so from that there's a bit of hope ... but don't want that crapola the 18Z GFS is trying to paint out of the Gulf ...

    • Like 1

    May Observations 2022

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    This is so strange ... 34% chance of rain (after 2:00 AM until 5:00 AM), under a severe thunderstorm watch (until 10:00 PM), nothing on the radar for 125 miles, and the birds, the tree frogs and the crickets are going absolutely choral bonkers ... :huh:

    • Confused 1

    May Observations 2022

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

     In this area and extending into far S SC and most of the FL peninsula, we're having both the hottest temperatures of the year to date and the hottest in the entire country as of noon EDT. This is being made possible by very dry soils resulting from rainfall of only 50% of normal since December. Non-irrigated soils not in the shade are almost as hard as concrete.

     At noon, it is already 87 at KSAV vs 79 at noon yesterday, when the high was the hottest of the year to date at 89, and vs 83 at noon two days ago when the high was 87. So, 90s are easily on the way with partly sunny skies and hot westerly winds not allowing for modification by the cooler ocean.

     Noon EDT temperatures:

    050522at16zUSTempsHotDeepSE.jpg.ca9257175cfecb715e73b4f6fbc0cba9.jpg

    91º in Hogtown, "feel like" is 96º (at Noon), and no rain in sight ... perfect conditions for N FL wildfires I fear ... :weep:

    • Sad 1

    Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    More on the dryness at KSAV: SAV members may especially find this of interest @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81

    Dec 2021 -Apr 2022 rainfall: 8.04" vs normal of  16.17" (So, only 50% of normal). So, we need rain badly! I'm starting to irrigate.

    - 8th driest on record (back to 1871)

    - Driest since 1988-9

    - The 7 drier ones were in 1988-9, 1984-5, 1937-8, 1926-7, 1910-1, 1897-8, and 1889-90

    - Regarding ENSO, 4 of those 7 drier periods were during La Nina (like 2021-2) and other 3 were during cold neutral.

    - Longterm ENSO climo for this area/SE coast favors dryness during La Nina and wetness during El Nino (wettest ones usually stronger).

    - The driest El Nino Dec-Apr was 9.62" (1930-1) followed by 9.72" (2006-7). Only 2 El Nino below 10" and none below 9.62".

     So, I’m hoping for a wet May. But with La Niña continuing, prospects from an ENSO perspective are not good. Model consensus doesn’t show any major relief anytime soon unfortunately.

    We've been wet down here in Hogtown ... until recently, but when you live on former seabed, the sand drains fast ... my yard is parched already and I'm just waiting for the sea breeze collision season to start ... a good ol' fashioned north central FL rain every couple afternoons (with minimal C to G) will do just fine, thank you ...

    Hope y'all get some slow, steady and non-windy precip soon ...

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    2018 Banter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

    Changing topic...

     

    GFS went off it's rocker at 12z with an absolutely insane 960mb Katrina redux hitting NoLA

    Off it's rocker is no less than 110% correct ... No way a named storm forms given dynamics ... IMHO   :drunk:

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, jburns said:

    Not anymore.   A black bear wandered into my yard while I was shoveling the driveway.  Luckily, I had my pocket knife with me and after a twenty-minute battle I managed to kill it.  I then skinned it and I'm using the skin as a coat. Sliced some thick steaks from the hind quarter so I'll have something for dinner.  Still, it isn't right to not check on a helpless old man during and after a snowstorm.

    Looks like from the news release photo - you got the SOB

     

    th-1.jpg

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