fujiwara79

these ensembles often show a foot of snowfall out near the gulf stream.  Somehow I don't think these snow accumulation algorithms account for the fact that the water temp is like 60 degrees out there.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But the fact it’s warm everywhere isn’t good either lol 

Agreed, it's very disconcerting.  Getting perfect track rainstorms in Minneapolis in January & February is...not normal.

As bad as our winter has been relative to expectations, the entire country has experienced one of the warmest and snowless winters on record.  Last year, at least significant chunks of the west experienced a great winter.  This winter has been a blowtorch everywhere other than a brief cold snap in January.  At least we cashed in somewhat on the very few opportunities we had.

if there is one month that, for whatever reason, has delivered during our snow drought, it's March.  I trust March more than December at this point.

You know things have gotten bad when we're now thinking La Ninas aren't too bad, actually

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

The 1960s might be out of reach but there was still a good amount of snows between 2013 and 2016.

20 years from now, even 2013-2016 may feel out of reach.  Especially if the oceans continue their warming trend.

We've had eight consecutive warmer-than-average winters.  Just having a winter where temperatures are average is very difficult these days.

Not sure how much flipping the PDO will actually help.  The oceans are on fire and keep getting warmer.  These oceanic cycles are super-imposed on a general linearly warming trend in water temperatures.  Analog based forecasting is based on a different regime and not sure how well it applies today.  We'll still get occasionally snowy winters but I think we should give up the hope of returning to the winters of the 1960s.  Who knows, 20 years from now we may be reminiscing about days like today as "the good old days".

Snow mixing in here.  Temps dropped 5 degrees within one hour.  Now 33.4

10 minutes ago, snowfan said:

GFS is a parade of disturbances with no access to cold air at our lat. need that to change.

Unfortunately, this has become a common occurrence, basically since 2017.

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No way the cities get above climo without that (unless we get like 3 moderate events)

Aren't the cities already at 50% of their climo?  One MECS will easily take them over climo.

It's just surreal that, in late January, we've just had two storms that had deformation rain bands in the upper Midwest.  Those storm tracks should at least produce white rain even in April up there.

Omega blocks are rare but they would typically happen in April or May.  Just a bizarre pattern all the way around.

For early February, The GFS keeps spitting out solutions that look more like mid April.  Cut-off lows that spin around aimlessly in the Rockies, giving them a pasty wet "spring snow" while the rest of the country is showery.  Looks like a spring pattern.  Yuck.

7 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Agreed. Since I’m exactly halfway to the old climo benchmark, I’d give it a midterm grade of B. 

I should have clarified:  By winter ending today, I meant if we don't get any more snow until next winter, then I'd still give it a C- because my expectations have lowered a lot for the current climate regime we're in.  But if we're strictly judging it as a midterm grade, then yeah I would give it a solid B too.

I think you have to grade winters with a significant curve in the context of the New Base State.  In a vacuum, if winter ended today it would be a D- or an F.  But with the grading curve, it's a C-.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

So just out of curiosity, what did the pattern look like this week? What does a pattern where DC can get two snows with basically no temp issues and hold snow cover for a week look like?

-NAO/-AO that is rapidly becoming positive.  PNA is neutral so not getting in the way.

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

According to the CPC, it's been a Strong +NAO Winter. I don't really get that because look at Greenland, and even a little cold pocket over the Azores

I think they made an error somewhere.  The max NAO didn't even make it to 1.94 in December, so it's impossible that the average would be 1.94.  You should notify them

The GFS looks horrid.  Perfect track rainstorm for Fargo, ND at 384.  Enjoy today.

28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is like a drier version of the 2nd Feb 2010 event. Classic Miller B

wellll....let's not get too carried away 

12 minutes ago, Drewber said:

Milwaukee and Chicago are having trouble with temperatures during the current storm because the adjacent lake is warmer than normal.  There should be some ice on the lake right now, but that hasn't been possible because of the mild weather in the region.

agreed, but water temps are on fire in most of the world right now, so perfect track rain/slop fests are becoming more common especially in early winter.  I think it's one reason why march has been far snowier than december lately.

well, if it makes anyone feel better, this storm took a somewhat decent track for places like Milwaukee to get lambasted with snow, especially in early January.  Instead, they've been getting white rain, with temps hovering in the mid 30s.  Perfect track slop storms isn't just happening to us. 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You have folks here who were ungrateful for the Jan 2016 blizzard just because it was a one and done winter. I don't get that...but to each their own!

 

it was a great storm, but that was an awful, under-performing winter.  I was wearing shorts for most of december 2015.  february 2016 was filled with heartbreaking near misses.  that winter should have delivered much more snow than it did.  the snow from the blizzard completely melted in a week and we had bare grass the rest of the winter.

contrast that with the winter of 13/14 -- no great storms, but an amazing winter.  the last good winter we had was probably 14/15.

I think the winter of 19/20 had that north pacific death ridge.  once you see that, it's over.  good luck with getting that beast to move.

Imagine a time - in the not so distant future - where lake effect rain showers in January will become the norm.  

On 12/27/2023 at 8:46 AM, gopper said:

Just learned a new word!  I always learn something new here

Yeah, milquetoast is my new term for pacific puke.  Although in our state, maybe continental polar air isn't enough for snow either.

give me either an Arctic December or a blowtorch December.  At least both are interesting.  But this cloudy, milquetoast airmass is the worst.