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BYG Jacob
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Everything posted by BYG Jacob
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Looks like a TDS
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This one has way too much time under little shear and very high OHC. I don't know what the models are seeing.
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Models are out to lunch on this one.
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Satellites do not accurately show the position of a storm dude
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A lot less weakening though, Canada and NE may be in for a really bad time.
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First time I've seen Idalia with intense convection around the entire eyewall
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On the cusp of becoming a major hurricane
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Steep pressure gradient and beefy rain rates in the northern eyewall
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Category 2 confirmed
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Looks like a trio of rotating VHT. Should see some significant pressure falls and wind increases.
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How so?
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It isn't
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Again, no. There isn't any shear to push the dry air into the core.
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The dry air is not being pushed into the core or eyewall of the storm. That would require shear, the hurricane will moisten the part of the storm the dry air got into with no issue. It's actually a bad thing in this case, because it means convective banding won't be able to wrap around and start an ERC.
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Absolutely not.
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Hard to say, that measurement isn't from the eye or CoC. It could very likely be lower, I don't think we'll get a definitive answer until the storm pulls away from Cuba
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Pressure dropping like a rock
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Looks like a pair of rotating hot towers on the last couple of IR frames. One of them rotating through the shear vector. Might be time to head to the happening bunker.
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Just the two most important factors that determine how bad a hurricane is.
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980.8 on the first pass
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Very healthy structure. Not something I wanted to see.
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Winds about 50 knots and pressure about 995 MB.
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Here we go again.
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